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Dumpshock Forums _ Shadowrun _ What's the murder rate in 2070?

Posted by: jklst14 Jul 19 2006, 06:22 PM

Reading the recent http://forums.dumpshock.com/index.php?showtopic=13828 thread made me reminesce about prior campaigns I've played. Routinely, we would kill 5 - 10 people per run. Didn't seem excessive to me at first but if our team did 1-2 runs per month, it meant that we killed hundreds of people per year.

So then I wondered, if there are teams of runners killing large numbers of people (in addition to rampaging gangs, organized crime battles, organleggers, megacorp hijinks , terrorism etc..) how high must the murder rate be in 2070? I'm curious to hear everyone's thoughts.

-JKL

PS: "New Seattle" gives the crime rate as 18 felonies per 1000 people but doesn't give the murder rate.

PPS: A quick Google search reveals about 5.5 homicides per 100 000 in the US in 2005 with about 4 per 100 000 in contemporary Seattle and about 60 per 100 000 in one of the country's most dangerous cities, Camden NJ.

Posted by: mfb Jul 19 2006, 06:52 PM

officially, the rate is probably very low. if there's any possible way for a given government (metroplex or corporate) to foist a given citizen's death off on someone else, they'll do so. for instance, let's say that Joe Smith lives and works on Renraku soil, but still holds a UCAS citizenship. if he's murdered, Seattle probably won't count his death in their figures--after all, he's Renraku! meanwhile, Renraku will pull the same trick; he works at Renraku, but he's actually a UCAS citizen.

Posted by: stevebugge Jul 19 2006, 07:05 PM

And of course the SINless only count if the media sees one, and even then they probably don't count in the official numbers.

Posted by: hyzmarca Jul 19 2006, 09:58 PM

And, of course, acts of terrorism and corporate warfare (including shadowruns) don't count at all.

Posted by: Lagomorph Jul 19 2006, 10:02 PM

I had always assumed probably at least 1000 deaths or injuries a day due to violent crime.

Mostly because my character tended to alot of collateral damage during a run. And it's not like your team is the only team out there, no, there are maybe 50 teams doing a run that day, and if each team kills 20 people like our team tends to do, then you've got a pretty high rate really.

Infact, seattle would probably be empty in 10 years or so.

Posted by: Snow_Fox Jul 20 2006, 03:16 AM

QUOTE (hyzmarca)

And, of course, acts of terrorism and corporate warfare (including shadowruns) don't count at all.

they don't happen. there are no such things as shadowrunners. of course everyone has a SIN so there are no SINless deaths to report. gee, how silly of you all!

Posted by: Kagetenshi Jul 20 2006, 04:06 AM

During the height of prohibition, the murder rate hit 9.7 per 100,000 people-years. Counting only the SINners, that would make 291 in Seattle—maybe a little on the low side, but it's within a range that I'd accept. Figure probably at least that much again for the SINless, probably more--I'm assuming that SINless are outnumbered by SINners, if that's incorrect quadruple the number at least.

Seattle and other major cities will probably have markedly higher murder rates than average--Denver's probably sky-high (no pun intended), while I doubt East Greenbush, New York has seen more than a 15% increase off of today's figure.

~J

Posted by: Drraagh Jul 20 2006, 10:30 PM

This would be fun to see the Body Lotto get introduced ito some of these high and low death campaign worlds.

* Body Lotto
®: The long-standing nightly lottery, sponsored by CORPORATION, which allows people to place bets on the overnight murder toll.

Posted by: Wounded Ronin Jul 28 2006, 09:01 PM

Mmm, dystopian pastiche says that bulldozers full of dead poor people aren't counted every day.

Posted by: Drraagh Jul 30 2006, 12:08 AM

QUOTE (Wounded Ronin)

Mmm, dystopian pastiche says that bulldozers full of dead poor people aren't counted every day.

The Body Lotto only counts the SINners, not the SINless. After all, they're the only ones that count. If you wanted to make it even harder, in places with multiple districts, have only two or three districts count. Just a thought.

Also, these are only the reported deaths, so maybe a person dies in each alley every night, but not all of them are going to be found, I figure.

Posted by: Charon Jul 30 2006, 01:00 AM

I read that Washington was pushing 70 murder for 100 000 citizen in 1998. Heard it's better now.

Otherwise, many american metropolis like Philadelphia and Detroit have had rates of above 30 / for 100K at some point in the late 80s and 90s.

It is my undertsanding that the "Punk" in Cyberpunk is inspired by the crime rate of American Metropolis during the recession of the 80s and was based on the assumption that the situation would worsen.

So take these figures and increase them. Say Seattle has 50 muder by 100 K. That would be between 1500 - 2000 muder a year (How many people in 2070 Seattle?)

But 50 might be too tame. Why not 80 ! Then we got almsot 4000 body bags a year. If your figure were to include the Barrens, 80-100 a year would sound about right to me.

Posted by: Wounded Ronin Jul 30 2006, 01:39 AM

QUOTE (Charon)

It is my undertsanding that the "Punk" in Cyberpunk is inspired by the crime rate of American Metropolis during the recession of the 80s and was based on the assumption that the situation would worsen.

Charon has caught t3h corr3ct and speaks with the thundering authority of the power of the 80s.

Posted by: Kagetenshi Jul 30 2006, 01:47 AM

By the power of 80sskull!

~J

Posted by: Wounded Ronin Jul 30 2006, 01:52 AM

QUOTE (Kagetenshi)

By the power of 80sskull!

~J

You just gave me the mental image of physad He Man walking through a graffiti-laden 80s subway car, getting accosted by a youth gang, and, like, beating them all down with his blunt magic sword.

Posted by: ShadowDragon8685 Jul 30 2006, 06:24 AM

The idea of the Body Lotto is sick, disgusting, twisted, and entirely Cyberpunk. I love it.

That said, most lotteries don't give you a chance to influence the outcome yourself...

Posted by: Kagetenshi Jul 30 2006, 02:50 PM

QUOTE (ShadowDragon8685)

That said, most lotteries don't give you a chance to influence the outcome yourself...

That's why the lotto would either be exact number only or "closest without going under".

~J