The probability math there is a little bit more robust than "Dice pool/3", as it's actual averages rather than just a quick and dirty expected value. Limits will alter that more robust calculation, as it's accounting for the range of results.

Guys. Honestly i don´t know what we are discussing about. Up to now obviously nobody has a proper clue about the correct rules. So we only throw around sciolism which leads us to nowhere. The topic was quite simple “are direct combat spells in SR5 useless”? The answer to me is yes, because something that earlier made 12 damage, now makes 4 damage (assumption was overcast spell force 8, with 4 NET-successes). Now we have to talk about the word “useless”. MY (and only my) expectation on a combat spell is, to one-shot or at least one-shot-incapacitate a target. This is not possible anymore. If you can accept the damage decrease from 12 to 4 then FOR YOU it is NOT useless. It ain´t getting more simple than that.

I think you meant that a combat spell is able to one-shot a target with average human stats without running more than minimal risk (perhaps 10% of less) of suffering Drain damage. Details, friend, details. A combat spell that cannot one shot anything more durable than a weak target is still useless.

so it's worthless if it doesn't instantly kill everything? guess everyone better start throwing their pistols and SMGs away. useless trash, really. why bother ever packing anything less than an ares alpha, right? heck, why even bother investing in automatics at all, if you invest in heavy weapons you have everything you'll ever need, right? assault cannons, grenade launchers, missile launchers, it's all there. have to settle for 10P -3 on your MMG until you can break the availability cap for your assault cannon sidearm though.

Correct. But we shouldn´t put in more details than absolutely needed, because otherwise the point seems to gets lost. ^^

Everyone who is not a magician or mystic adept or otherwise able to cast spells.

I think the point is that it is worthless not because it doesn't instantly kill everything, but it is worthless when compared with its previous incarnation.

I also think that something that causes 4P damage is not worthy to be called "combat-spell". ^^

It's pretty bad compared to most other options available to the mage in SR5. He'd frequently get better mileage out of spray and pray from a SMG, especially after casting/using preparation a improved attribute agility spell/

Are direct damage a bit too narrow of a niche for its power. I think so, but its closer than where 4e was. I honestly don;t see a fix, force+net hits is broken maybe if they made the drain force+2? for stun bolt it might work, but even then I think it would be screwed. Net hitsx2 still broken IMO.

Not useless. Hold-out guns have their place as well. Their use is specialized.

SR5 has tried to move away from oneshotting because it is super boring.

No more +9 DV (or +11 DV) silly automatic fire

No more silly Direct spells dealing guaranteed damage.


(But for some reason, silly grenades dealing damage, but with proper rules they should only deal this damage to targets that are unwilling to move. They are meant to be area denial and works wonders as that)


The outgoing average damage for an F6 (limit 6) direct combat spell is not Dicepool/3 after Dicepool 6 since you no longer count hits beyond 6. Rolling 7 hits on 7 dice is rare so the effect is small but it soon have good effect.

The average damage is the Sum of Hits=1 to infinity Max(6,Hits)*P(Hits) where P(n) Is the chance to roll EXACTLY n hits.

P(n) is hits over dicepool * misschance ^ (dicepool-n) * hitchance ^(n) hitchance is 1/3 (5 and 6), misschance 2/3 (1 to 4).

Typically written as combination(pool, n)*(2/3)^(pool-n)*(1/3)^n



The chance to hit with 6 dice versus 8 defender is not 0. Even when you only count net hits. It is a very common error to do on these forums to just take expected hits - expected resists and call that average damage.

Average damage on a F6 (limited) Manabolt is something like this:

1* (P(attacker rolls 1 hit)*P(Defender rolls no hits)+P(Attacker rolls 2 hits)*P(Defender rolls 1)+P(Attacker rolls 3 hits)*P(Defender rolls 2) + 2 * (all combinations that gives 2 net hits + 3 * combinations that give 3, up to the last term that is the chance that they attacker rolls 6 (or more) hits * 6 damage

That ends up looking a little like
Pool Will3
1 0,23
2 0,53
3 0,90
4 1,29
5 1,68
6 2,03
7 2,34
8 2,62
9 2,87
10 3,10
11 3,30
12 3,50
13 3,68
14 3,84
15 4,00
16 4,14
17 4,27
18 4,38
19 4,48
20 4,57


This is even more important for soaking, many think 10 dice drain resist gives no drain for a 2 DV spell while it is 0.12 average drain (1 drain in every 8 casts). That is why you don't get to buy hits on drain resist tests.

Let me put it this way. In SR4.5, how many combats were "Fight until the mage casts stunball?" Substitute manaball, manabolt, or combat spell of your choice.

In my experience? All of them. Oh, except for the times when we didn't have a mage. Other than that, every combat in Sr4/4.5 effectively ended with a direct combat spell.

Grenades
Shotguns
Assault Rifle, Full Auto, APDS

No one/twoshots? Really?

As others have pointed out: the issue in SR4 was not the direct combat spell. It was the missing alternative (elemental combat spells) and the possibility for overcast without risk. The removal or reduction overcast would have been completely enough.

SYL

Against mediocre opponents, a good shooter can still disable his foes with an SMG or pistol. A mage has to be a demigod to have any chance of incapacitating a target with a single direct combat spell. Fortunately, Indirect spells are quite effective, so it's not like spellcasters are helpless.

And the thread has gone full circle

I would argue that this is, in part, a failure to consider how different of an environment SR5 is. In SR5, Magicians have a choice between a spell group that, at high force, can one shot a target and carries wonderful secondary effects at any force and a spell group that WILL hit, no matter what, but that doesn't do as much damage. I simply cannot see how you can argue that the latter is useless in SR5's environment, where your indirect spell or firearm attack connecting is very, very far from guaranteed. Their use has changed, but I simply cannot see "useless" as a defensible assertion.

In shadowrun missions, most fights start with that... they end with it too... Some high initiative mage throws a F12 or F16 stunball... and as a GM unless there's a mage present for the NPCs who can put up a hell of a counterspell, the combat ends.

That.

Although it has been stated repeatedly over the course of this discussion and someone who thinks combat spells should one hit targets by default (even when they are almost guarateed to hit), will probably not see this argument. I do not think that, mages should have a good chance to one-hit and opponent, using a combat spell. Still a specialized combat mage will get to the point, where he can one-hit opponents. This will not be likely with dcs, but that is not what they are for. DCS are almost guaranteed damage, even on targets that eat bullets for breakfast or dodge like they have no mass at all.

By the way, onehitting a professional shadowrunner (a samurai for example) would not be much harder than to onehit the generic passerby with a dcs - most of them still do not pack a willpower stat over 4.

So 50% of 1 Spellcategory out of 5, is not the "wrath of god lightnigstrike", that kills on sight, anymore as it has been redefined to be a scalpel, that most mudanes can not even hope to counter, as it ignores most defenses - get over it.
I love to be viable as a mage, not because of overpowered combatspells, but because I know how to use my tools.

In point of fact, were direct spells to be capable of an easy one shot, balance could only exist if it were relatively easy to avoid. I'm compelled to ask if people would have preferred dodgable direct spells.

They ARE relatively easy to avoid... Willpower 3-4, a few dice for Cover (SR4A gives +4 Dice or Removes you from View entirely) and a Friendly Spellcaster providing a few dice for defense (Counterspelling of 4 or so Dice, +2 More for Combat Specialty if applicable) and you have a decent Dice Pool (Yes, I consider 11-13 Dice decent for avoiding Direct Combat Spells). And if you take total Cover from the Spellcaster, you are Immune to Direct Combat Spells ENTIRELY. Seems pretty easy to avoid if you ask me.

So long as you have a steel door between you and someone whose genetics make up less than 1% of the population, you'll be fine!

Personal attacks are against forum rules, so I will keep the "Strawman" jokes to myself.

-DrZ

And where do the NPCs keep getting these counterspelling folks from? How does the mundane team survive the F16 Stunball?

They don't.

Corp sec might have some mages on call, but they don't have them everywhere... which means that unless you stick mages with every streetgang and at every research lab/warehouse you can't challenge a starting SR4a shadowrunning team.

No one has even broached the subject of non-conductivity or other such armor boosts for dealing with elemental stuff

why would we? they're helpful, but the simple fact is, indirect combat spells are also not to a point where you need to go hide in a deep, dark hole and hope that the scary magician doesn't see you, as a general rule. a magician can use indirect spells, and they will generally only use one that is much stronger than a pistol if they're in a dire situation. certainly, the force 10 ball lightning is scary... but it's scary for the magician to cast that, too, because it will be 11 drain for the magician (and that's an awful lot of drain to soak). preparations help, but you can probably only manage a few before a run of that strength, and you run the risk of taking that as physical drain and compromising the entire run if you don't use reagents (and while reagents used to load up on low-force buff spells stored in sustaining focuses are an amazing deal for the cost, that's quite a bit of money to spend on what essentially amount to bullets that have a shelf-life of less than a day. plus, if we're talking area effects, they are centered on the preparation, which means you have to throw it like a grenade... it's generally cheaper and as effective or better to just throw an actual grenade most of the time).

No, they're impossible to avoid. You can only soak the damage. Further, Cover applies only to Defense Tests - which you do not get against Direct spells. And Counterspelling is doubly rare - not only does it require a caster, but in fact that caster only has a small number of total dice to provide until they refresh. So the only reliable means of defense is to remove yourself from the caster's view - and if they can one shot, that situation CANNOT EVER be balanced.

Why does it need a steel door? A standard wooden door will suffice, or a packing crate, or anything else that is opaque that you can hide behind. Should be a lot of those things around any given area.