Playing the Stock Market, And Insider Trading Options

[Snow_Fox]

Ok let me put in my (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nuyen.gif) 2. For those who don't know, I do this professionally, trading not insider trading, so I have some knowledge.

First putting money into a competator in the hope they will go up with the target goes down? Unlikely. At the size of AAA corps you're not sure to pick the winner unless you're talking about two corps in direct competition for the same project-for exampe in RL Boeing and the Euro agency trying to get the contract for the USAF tanker. In just trashing an archology does not mean that Ares can't ship product and admin from there to oneof their other facilities. It does not mean as a genral practice the other corp will go up.

Selling short to make a killing as a corp you hit goes down is the more common goal and easier to plan but harder to pull off. Look at the first half of the movie Casino Royale where Le Chiffre tries to short sell on an airplane maker and ensure his investment by sabotaging a prototype. In the movie Bond stops him but in RL it would not really do that much damage. They have the plans and manufacturing equipment in place. Within the last month RL US pharmaceutical maker Pfizer had to pay out millions because of a whistle blower, Some people thought it would take a hit, many still have it on their 'buy' list because of how they restructered in the last two years.- meaning for the professionals this is not an issue and while the average person thinks 'holy drek, they are gonna get hurt' and risk selling short, the big boys are structurally fine and this isn't going to hurt them.

Also if you do make money in short trading, buying into a corp that did suddenly take a hit? They watch that stuff. Someone sells short and then there's a big hit? hmmm. In RL the SEC investigates and looks for insider info. Remember Marhta Stewart? heck of a coinsidence that you sold off a drek load of stuff just before the stock tanked. In SR it would probably be worse than a fine/jail time. Suppose you pull it off and Ares is going to look for cases like that and osmehow I think an Ares strike team is going to be much less polite than an SEC investigator. Remember this is SHADOWrun. Low profile.

As for the plan, trashing the water supply has a quick fix and you can't be sure what you're doing. What will give a troll the runs will kill a human baby. Even if you get something into the water, They can find and fix it and change out, at most you're trashing the career of a sec chief or building manager. They fix it and close that loop hole. don't think so? remember a few years ago RL there was a rash of nasty bugs of cruise ships. People spending a lot of time in rest rooms etc, no I don't think any of us want more detail, sure it caused a little flutter in the cruise business but that has...passed.

Even the flutter didn't help the competion and a AAA corp would be big enough to absorb the damage.

If you really want to play the market in SR it's going to be on a small scale-as people have pointed out there are brokers who will deal with this when you provide info. It really falls to your GM and does she want to start playing the market. You are NOT going to make a big kill on a single deal but see small gains and losses over time.

[Zen Shooter01]

Dragnar has a point regarding glitches in the system I've suggested. Here's a fix - if the PC glitches, every net hit still grows their money by 1%, but in the upcoming quarter, the PC has access to only half their invested money. The other half is tied up in illiquid investments.

Oh, and just presume that any growth is net, not gross. Meaning that it's what's left after taxes, management fees, and any other costs are paid.

[Snow_Fox]

That's a net 4% gain per year. Not really enough for a runner. I mean even if you have (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nuyen.gif) 1million invested that's only (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nuyen.gif) 40k per year, not enough for even a medium lifestyle.

[Zen Shooter01]

Make it threshold 1, if you like. But don't forget Edge can be spent on the roll, too, and the increases are compounding. Also, I designed this rule to make investing attractive, not send the player back to chargen because their old runner retired to their Etrade account.

[Jaid]

That's a net 4% gain per year. Not really enough for a runner. I mean even if you have (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nuyen.gif) 1million invested that's only (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nuyen.gif) 40k per year, not enough for even a medium lifestyle.

?

no, with a DP of, say, 9 (if we assume the runner is reasonably skilled) you could expect something like 3% per quarter, which is a little over 12.5% over the course of one year (assuming no crit glitches, but with DP 9 and willingness to spend edge, not too bad).

of course, with a lower DP, you won't get that much (a little over 8% for a DP of 6 assuming no glitches) and with untrained you'll likely be looking at 4% per year, but then an untrained investor probably shouldn't expect all that much from their investments anyways.

[Ascalaphus]

Interesting ideas, I think I'll add that skill. But should it be linked to Logic or Intuition? And should it be an Active skill?

Also, I'd say that Insider Knowledge (per "unit") should give a dice pool bonus (generic +2 for a favorable circumstance), but glitches will have more serious results. Better have some Edge ready...

[Lok1 :)]

Wow this is intresting, and worlds apart from any of the games I've played in. But I'm going to have to agree and say that their will be little or no impact apon the company IF its an AAA, if theirs a smaller company employed by Ares to run the arcolgy (Wich is pretty commen in the SR universe if my experinces serve correct) then their stock will plunge. Perhaps takeing stock in another one of the companys that compeats for the same services to ARES?

[toturi]

If you have the Knowledge skills for it(Stock Manipulation, Investment Management, etc), the nuyen and the circumstances for trading (insider knowledge, whatever, etc), then I don't see why not. Just remember to have a spirit Guarding you when you do it, maybe even layer on with some Knowledge like Forensic Accounting or Money Laundering, Business Laws with specialisation Loopholes. If you are good enough, it could work.

[Wordman]

If you are really interested in short selling (particularly naked short selling, which is not the same thing) and criminality, read all of this. It's (very) long, but worth the read. Of course, one would hope that the gov't would have pulled their heads out of their asses by 2070 and stopped naked short selling, but you never know.

[Snow_Fox]

As I said, the odds of affecting a AAA or even AA corp (like Lone Star) are negligable but it is possible you can get a better idea who your johnson works for by figuring out what's going on.

[Ascalaphus]

As I said, the odds of affecting a AAA or even AA corp (like Lone Star) are negligable but it is possible you can get a better idea who your johnson works for by figuring out what's going on.

You can turn things around though: during your run you might come across information that allows you to invest more wisely. You don't have to do anything to the corp, just discover what they've kept secret for the previous quarter's fiscal report.

[Ustio]

My old technomancer - Rook, was based arounfd a stockbroker who was online during the second crash for the I{O and went a little nuts (read a lot nuts) so had really high dice pool for Business (specialised in stock market) i think the total was 20+2. mechanically what we decided was to use the lifestyle spoofing rules from unwired but using the above dicepool and the drawback of being almost 100% traceable.