 Hit and Glitch Probabilities |
 Jan 3 2006, 12:55 PM
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Target  Group: Members Posts: 68 Joined: 30-December 05 Member No.: 8,114  |
The dice mechanic in the Fourth Edition intrigues me. It's simple in use but it's hard to determine probabilities when rolling multiple dice against various thresholds. I had a couple of spare hours so I thought I would write a simple program to calculate the various probabilities of getting hits and glitches. Here are the results:
Graphing these results produces nice curves that progress smoothly. It shows the non-linear aspect of the mechanic and is what I was hoping to see, damn good! The glitches are another story. As discussed in another thread the problem lies in the fact that it is better to have an odd number of dice in the dice pool than an even number. It's not a big issue, especially once the dice pool has 5 or more dice, but it does bug me. After a fair bit of trial and error the following modified glitch rule seems to resolve the issue. If more than half of the dice pool rolled come up as 1s, then a glitch results. Also if exactly half of the dice pool rolled come up as 1s and the other half do not come up as 3s, 4s, 5s or 6s, then a glitch results. The results from this modified glitch rule are:
The results are not perfectly smooth but I think it's good enough and it does resolve the issue of odd and even dice pools. Here are a few examples: 1,3 = no hits, no glitch 1,2 = no hits, critical glitch 1,5 = 1 hit, no glitch 1,1,2 = no hits, critical glitch 1,1,3 = no hits, critical glitch 1,1,5 = 1 hit, glitch 1,1,2,3 = no hits, no glitch 1,1,1,5 = 1 hit, glitch 1,1,2,2 = no hits, critical glitch 1,1,1,2,2,3 = no hits, no glitch 1,1,1,1,2,5 = 1 hit, glitch On a final note for those interested I am quite happy to send the program and source I wrote, it was written in C# so you will need to install the .NET Framework 2.0 to run it. This post has been edited by Wizard: Jan 4 2006, 03:04 AM |
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Posts in this topic
Wizard Hit and Glitch Probabilities Jan 3 2006, 12:55 PM
Darkness QUOTE (Wizard)CODE
... Jan 3 2006, 02:02 PM Inigo Carmine Removed because I can't seem to get my statist... Jan 3 2006, 06:15 PM Wizard QUOTE (Darkness)For clarification:
These are the p... Jan 4 2006, 03:07 AM Hasaku QUOTE (Darkness) I used Excel by the way.
Coul... Jan 4 2006, 03:47 AM Feshy QUOTE (Hasaku) QUOTE (Darkness @ Jan 3 2006, ... Jan 4 2006, 04:24 AM Wizard Just thinking about it, maybe the rule would be cl... Jan 4 2006, 05:16 AM Darkness Mmmh. The sheet is in german, so i will whip up a ... Jan 4 2006, 12:55 PM Darkness *ping*
Done!
Well here it is anyways.
Shadowru... Jan 4 2006, 02:07 PM Skippy Thanks, Wizard! This Illustrates the points a... Jan 4 2006, 03:29 PM
Wizard I have created a PDF that explains things and show... Jan 4 2006, 03:44 PM  |
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