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> On the subject of probabilities
Demerzel
post Mar 13 2007, 10:16 PM
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Over in the edge thread there was some talk of probabilities in SR4 and I’ve got a few charts I’ve set up for non-edge cases to give an idea of chances. Links:

Opposed Tests With Standard Dice Pools
Opposed test table
Opposed test chart

Standard Dice Pools
Exact hits on a standard dice pool
Meeting a threshold on a standard dice pool

Rule of Six Dice Pools
Exact hits on a Rule of Six dice pool
Meeting a threshold on a Rule of Six dice pool
Chart for Meeting a threshold with RoS


They may not really be useful but I thought they were a little informative. The chart I called a spectrum is probably not the best name for it. It’s really a contour plot, where the numbered isopleths refer to the defenders dice pool, along the x-axis is the attackers dice pool, and the y-axis is the percentage probability that the attacker will generate at least 1 net hit.

I’ve played with, but haven’t really generated a similar chart for edge with the rule of sixes.

EDIT: Changed the links a little, and added some tables

Enjoy,
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Posts in this topic
- Demerzel   On the subject of probabilities   Mar 13 2007, 10:16 PM
- - hyzmarca   I do believe that fractions are better than decima...   Mar 13 2007, 11:21 PM
- - Demerzel   I'd be interested in seeing any example of a s...   Mar 13 2007, 11:36 PM
- - dionysus   The spectrum graph interests me: I'm reading t...   Mar 14 2007, 12:02 AM
- - Demerzel   Yes, defenders win ties. That 20% diminishes with...   Mar 14 2007, 12:14 AM
- - Protector152   i like the idea that i can use thease tables to pr...   Mar 14 2007, 12:44 PM
- - Garrowolf   I thought that ties were a light hit now and not g...   Mar 14 2007, 01:25 PM
- - Mistwalker   Ties are a grazing hit, causing no damage. But, if...   Mar 14 2007, 01:39 PM
- - Garrowolf   Okay one of the things I was thinking about is tha...   Mar 14 2007, 02:05 PM
- - Mistwalker   One of the rule tweaks, page 69? has something sim...   Mar 14 2007, 02:17 PM
- - Demerzel   QUOTE (Protector152) do you think you can also put...   Mar 14 2007, 02:46 PM
- - Moon-Hawk   Also drawing off the other probability thread, I...   Mar 14 2007, 02:54 PM
- - Jaid   well, i guess you can at least know for a fact tha...   Mar 14 2007, 03:02 PM
- - Moon-Hawk   And I want a pony. A unicorn pony. With wings. ...   Mar 14 2007, 03:07 PM
- - Mistwalker   I only want a few books. The sports almanacs for ...   Mar 14 2007, 03:12 PM
- - Demerzel   Pink Winged Unicorn Costume You'll just need ...   Mar 14 2007, 03:42 PM
- - Moon-Hawk   O... M... F... G I ask for a pink, winged, unicorn...   Mar 14 2007, 03:50 PM
- - Demerzel   I do have a table of values for edge dice, I just ...   Mar 14 2007, 04:02 PM
- - Moon-Hawk   Yeah, but the first one is the only one that reall...   Mar 14 2007, 04:05 PM
- - Demerzel   True, I probably won't have it up for a bit th...   Mar 14 2007, 04:08 PM
- - ES_Sparky   QUOTE (Moon-Hawk) ... I think I'd need a cage ...   Mar 14 2007, 04:29 PM
- - MaxHunter   hey demerzel, your sig link has expired... I woul...   Mar 14 2007, 04:39 PM
- - Demerzel   Gah! I knew I wasn't supposed to delete t...   Mar 14 2007, 04:42 PM
- - Demerzel   Just to whet some appetites, I've put together...   Mar 15 2007, 06:30 PM
- - Moon-Hawk   QUOTE (Demerzel) Just to whet some appetites, I...   Mar 15 2007, 06:45 PM
- - Demerzel   Okay, the Rule of Six dice pools were just banged ...   Mar 15 2007, 08:19 PM


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