Gambling, how do you do it, skillwise? Options

[wind_in_the_ston...]

I've got a character who wants to do a lot of gambling. Betting on urbanbrawl, and other sports. I'd like to give him a roll, but what?

First of all, picking teams to win doesn't sound like an active skill, just a knowledge skill. Who's playing, who's the captain, who are they playing against, how have they been doing against that team this season, what's their home record, is their defense decent against that sort of offense, etc. Total up all your pros and cons and call your bookie. It's less a matter of talent than time spent.

Intuition or logic?

How do you determine what the payoff is? We tried saying, "choose your odds. That's your threshold for success." He started choosing 2 to 1. Two successes on six dice is not too tough. So we upped it to a threshold of the odds plus 2. Plus, he can't possibly win on 7 to 1 or steeper.

I'm up for any suggestions you have. Either a realistic simulation, or a simplified die roll.