6th World Demographics, Orc population reproductive rates vs. life spans Options

[InfinityzeN]

I always disagreed with the birth rate of Orks for the same reasons given so far in this thread. I've described their birth rate in my personal SR world as averaging two per (Anything from 10~25% single or triplets, depending on family. Bump the genetic stock up by one, so high twin rate stock has a high triplet rate for orks).

As for the lifespans, I take them as average life expectancies world wide. I tend to knock an Orks max age down by about the same % as their early maturation. Even SINner orks normally get the most crappy jobs and have the worst health care of any of the SINners so this knocks their average down. I figure humans with good health care but no access to life span extending treatments can live to ~110 years old, with orks pulling in at ~80 or a little more.

Just in my world though. Go with what makes the most sense to you.

[Kerenshara]

As for the lifespans, I take them as average life expectancies world wide. I tend to knock an Orks max age down by about the same % as their early maturation. Even SINner orks normally get the most crappy jobs and have the worst health care of any of the SINners so this knocks their average down. I figure humans with good health care but no access to life span extending treatments can live to ~110 years old, with orks pulling in at ~80 or a little more.

Just in my world though. Go with what makes the most sense to you.

I was trying to get multiple viewpoints and maybe toss things to the people who hadn't wanted to ask or for whom it hadn't occured to them yet.

I have to say, I like the way you're going with those numbers there, because I remember that 110 year number from one piece of fluff or another. When do you think Orcs are "mature"?

[Rasumichin]

4 billion, 860 million new orks.

That's a lot of orks.

Okay, when we sum up the official information given on the various races, orks would be the most numerous metatype, but 95% of them would be ghouls anyway...
Now who would've expected that something in SR doesn't make sense?

Don't get me wrong, i totally see your point.
I'm just unsure wether it would be more interesting to make orks the dominant metatype or change the fluff for reproduction rates.
So what should be the "reasonable" figure for orkish reproduction rates, given that according to SR2 material, around 5% of the world's population has goblinized and they make up around 20% of the world's population by SR4 fluff?

So, your vote? What do you think the "natural" old age point is for orcs (and trolls)?

Hard to say, as that can already vary a lot for humans.
I'd say that orks could, in very rare cases, live into their 60s without leonization.
In exceptional cases, one may even get to celebrate his 70th birthday.
But on average, the mean (not the average life expectancy, see below) for naturally occuring deaths would be somewhere around 40.

However, figures for life expectancy may be a bit misleading because low birth weight due to short pregnancies and litters could lead to increased infant mortality, which would mean that the figures had to be moved upwards a bit.


As far as maturity is concerned, i generally asume that 14 year old orks are roughly comparable to 18 year old humans, even though they'll lack some experiences of humans that age.
I'd consider the latter to be a limiting factor as far is maturity is concerned- even though they physically mature faster, are out of puberty sooner and will show a more grown up behaviour at a much earlier point, time doesn't run faster for them.
They may be inclined to catch up with this, knowing that they have less time to waste than humans, but still, there will be outside limitations to how fast they really mature on the mental level.

[Tiger Eyes]

Hm... no one has caught this little gem in Runner's Companion? I'm surprised:

Orks or homo sapiens robustus metatype are the second most common metatype in the world according to recent statistics, though birthrates have plunged in industrialized countries over the past few years. Several sociologial and medical studies into the matter have proved inconclusive, but it seems safe to suggest that such a drop off is unlikely to be natural.

Italics mine.

[Kerenshara]

Hm... no one has caught this little gem in Runner's Companion? I'm surprised:

Now that you bring it up, Tiger Eyes, I DO remember the passage, but it had totally snuck away from concious thought until you mentioned it, and I remember at the time (a while ago now) scratching my head and wondering about that quite a bit, thinking it would be a GREAT bit for a 'run (or actually, a whole ARC!) but I was hoping for something more cannon before I decided to play with it directly.

Thanks for weighing in (and helping settle the whole "why aren't we awash in orc babies?! debate) for us on the matter!

[Khyron]

To properly calculate birth rates, you'd also need variables such as "male/female birth ratio" and of course how many orks actually are breeding.

[Nkari]

Like in most developing countries, once the standard of living becomes better, the birthrate will drop, and I am sure the same thing will happen when it comes to robustus, how to handle the "litters" tho are an entirely diffrent thing..

[Brazilian_Shinob...]

I know I'm dropping in late, but here are my two (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nuyen.gif) .
Taken from Shadowrun 2nd Ed. (How I love the fluff from there:
Orks weight around 95kg and female orks usually have 4 children per pregnancy but 6 or 7 are not uncommon. The children weight at birth is around 4.2% of the mother's weight. Breastfeeding lasts more than 7 monthes. They reach puberty around 10 years old. They live to 35 - 40 years old and the gestation takes 187 days.

The problem is that the 2nd ed says that methabolic studies gives them a life expectancy of 35-40 years old and Trolls around 50 years old, it is a lot different when you see that the average life expectancy of humans is 55 years old.

Anyway, Tyger Eyes was kind enough to show us that for some unknown reason the birth rate of Orks diminished so this might explain because nobody thought of giving them a final solution or sterelization or another eugenistic technique.

[Omenowl]

And I thought it was the high number of gangs, poor food, disease and the occasional crackdown by government that kept their numbers in check.

[Screaming Eagle]

I've generally held Orc life expecatncy of 35, like others here, to be the world wide average and skewed low. given that human is listed at 55 and in most developed countries it over 70, and in some over 90 I'd be prone to site it is a LOW average with the actual "hard" max just over double. I tend to run that orc feel like retiring/ seeming elderly in and around 40-45, the old bones just not holding up any more and aging really starts. Most developed country orc deaths by "natural causes" occuring from 45-60 with the equivalent to the "century mark" for humans being in and about 65-70. Of course I like to make a point that retirement age is still 65.... poor orcs...
I similarly assume Human life expecantcies are down a 5-10 years in all countries from the pre-awakened world owing to the dystpoic future thing, fake food everywhere and the crap in air, land and water.

Then again I also have had the sea level rise in game over the last 10 years and low lying areas of Seattle are periodically flooded by the near toxic watse the town calls its harbour so what do I know?

[Hagga]

It's mentioned in one of the recent books (forget which one, can someone assist?) that ork reproduction rate has hit the floor. Suffixed with "such a drop is unlikely to be natural."

[Kerenshara]

It's mentioned in one of the recent books (forget which one, can someone assist?) that ork reproduction rate has hit the floor. Suffixed with "such a drop is unlikely to be natural."

See Tiger Eyes' post above.

[StealthSigma]

Out of the 6 billion people around during the goblinization, let's suppose 1% goblinized into orks. This is a low number: it's probably more like 5%, given that 10% of the world's population goblinized, period. That's 60 million. They have litters, averaging 5-6 orks. Let's assume half of those die before they can reproduce, or otherwise do not have children, right? That's some insane mortality, but even so... So every generation will be triple the size of the preceding one. Let's assume the first generation of native orks is in 2020, and a new generation happens every 15 years.

2020: 180 Million new orks.
2035: 540 Million new orks.
2050: 1 billion, 650 million new orks.
2065: 4 billion, 860 million new orks.

That's a lot of orks.

Experiment 2: Let's assume 5% of the world's population becomes orks, but each generation is only double the size of the previous one, because Orks just plain get killed THAT MUCH.

2020: 600 Million
2035: 1 billion, 200 million.
2050: 2 billion, 400 million.
2065: 4 billion, 800 million.

Edit: Yes, I know this is not mathematically perfect. To compensate, I have been exceedingly generous with death rates.

Aside from being mathematically imperfect, you've also done the math wrong. That initial 60 million figure is actually 30 million, you neglected to split the value. 30 million ork females would have 6 children, of which 50% would have died (by your initial figures). That would be 90 million new orks, not 180 that survive to have children. While doing an even 50/50 split on gender is mathematically imperfect, without actual male-female population split, 50/50 is the best estimate.

[darthmord]

Typically creatures in nature that have a high birth rate have other issues necessitating such. This was touched on earlier by another poster as being prey animals. Another cause might be low fertility rate. Such a thing might require large litters to get 1+ breeding capable result. The rest would be born sterile.

But given what Tiger Eyes mentioned... perhaps someone is putting some birth control in the food supply that affects Orks only.

[Kerenshara]

Or maybe something after the YotC altered the flow of mana somehow, essentially reducing their birth rates? Or perhap originially the mana was seeking to bring orcs up to a certain representation as quickly as possible but now that it is achieved or well on the way, that initial "surge" of fertility has fallen off?

[McCummhail]

Possible still-born and infant mortality rate considerations aside,
If you have had even a single child then you can more fairly
put into perspective the prospect of having to raise/support 4-5 offspring per birth.

Given that Orks are depicted as poor and uneducated,
I doubt they would be able to sustain a single litter well, let alone multiple litters.

When it comes to orks I have never bothered to tweak the numbers,
but SINless sprawls are a large source of grittiness in my games.
Huddles and swarms of homeless destitutes, orphans, abandoned infants, etc.

Puyallup resembles great depression painted green.

[Rasumichin]

But given what Tiger Eyes mentioned... perhaps someone is putting some birth control in the food supply that affects Orks only.

Such as the orks themselves?

Think about it, what if there's a treatment that reduces the number of children per ork pregnancy?
The only one availbale under current medtech would be selective abortions, but i'm sure some corp (EVO notably) would try to develop a method that is more widely accepted.
Demand for this would be high, as the prospect of raising 4 to 7 kids at once is something many orks will not look forward to.

Then, there's the issue of willingness to reproduce at all- imagine a young orkish male who only has 35-50 years to live anyway.
Does he want to spend half of it with raising a litter?
How many ork dads run away as soon as possible and how many orkish infants end up in orphanages because their single mom cannot raise them on her own?
What effect does having suffered through such hardships firsthand have on the family planning of young orks?
How does potentially giving birth to litters affect the attractivenes of orkish females as potential partners?

Given these prospects, how many orks opt for sterilization alltogether?

[Brazilian_Shinob...]

Or maybe something after the YotC altered the flow of mana somehow, essentially reducing their birth rates? Or perhap originially the mana was seeking to bring orcs up to a certain representation as quickly as possible but now that it is achieved or well on the way, that initial "surge" of fertility has fallen off?

I had thought on a similar theory. This could work, if you consider that the "Mana" is just like the "Force" (without the midchlorians, of course).

[Adarael]

Yes, but I would expect in that case that 4th Edition would make note that "orks have less babies now", not "orks just don't get viable pregnancies as much". But some fix is better than no fix, I suppose.

StealthSigma, I know it's not good math. I suck at math. But those numbers also assume any ork that has kids may do so more than once. I didn't divide by 2 to take into account females, because for purposes of that thought exercise, we're only assuming that the ork numbers double with each generation. Given 2 parents and litters of 6-7, where only half or slightly more survive, I think that more than makes up for dividing by two, because a 50% mortality rate by the age of *12* is just plain nuts.

It's not supposed to be good math. It's just supposed to be a swift illustration that without massive external controls on breeding, Orks rapidly become the dominant race on earth, no matter what you do. It's my opinion that very high instances of twins, combined with their earlier maturation and 6 month gestation cycle more than explain their rapidly growing numbers.

[nezumi]

The Ork lifespan is, by canon, natural. Some of the 1st/2nd edition books make mention of orks who goblinized with the initial UGE, and have survived to 60 or 70, and how that is literally unheard of. In one of the Twist novels, the ork character visits the Ork Underground and meets with his... grandfather? Dunno. But they make a point of mentioning that, since he was one of the original orks who goblinised, he's outlived his wife by 30 years, watching her age and die, while he was still relatively young.

I don't recall seeing anywhere whether a human that goblinizes later enjoys a human lifespan or an ork lifespan, but orks born as orks are definitely screwed.

[Adarael]

That makes sense only if medical care is not factored into the natural lifespan. People routinely live to much older than 60 *right now*, so you can't reasonably say the natural human life span is '60' when you include medical care.

[eidolon]

Hm... no one has caught this little gem in Runner's Companion? I'm surprised:

I've been ignoring the ridiculous crap about ork lifespans and litters for so long that when I scan over stuff like that it doesn't process. Nice that it's there for people that want "official" solutions to stuff they don't like.

[Adarael]

Exactly what he said!

[darthmord]

That makes sense only if medical care is not factored into the natural lifespan. People routinely live to much older than 60 *right now*, so you can't reasonably say the natural human life span is '60' when you include medical care.

It also mentions that 65 is the world-wide age for humans. That takes into account a LOT of variables and some places' rather low life expectancy rates. Conversely, in 1st world countries and AAA corps, life expectancy is MUCH higher. It's quite normal NOW for people to live to their mid to late 70s. People in my family live to their mid 80s. It's gone up each generation.

By taking into account life expectancy from various places, you are by default taking into account access to medical care on a per capita basis.

[TBRMInsanity]

Even if Orcs are having "litters" what is the child mortality rate? I would expect that since most orcs live bellow the poverty line that they have a well above average child mortality rate (especially amongst the SINless in the Barrens). This would also help slow a orc population explosion.

I would think that an orc living under ideal conditions should be expected to live almost as long as a human (if not longer as larger animals tend to live longer in the animal kingdom). Trolls again, I would expect could reach an age of around 150-160 years old.