 Living long enough to live forever, ... are a lot of people NOT dying? |
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 Apr 7 2006, 03:19 PM
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#1
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Moving Target  Group: Members Posts: 305 Joined: 2-March 03 Member No.: 4,188  |
Living long enough to live forever is a theory where eventually technology's ability to add to our life expectancy will grow faster than we age.
For example, I'm currently expected to live until 86 or so (based on today's numbers), but in ten years a 30 year old can expect to live until ~87 (if current rates stay the same). However, if life expectancy goes up by more than one year, every year, then the 'time till expected death' progressively gets further away. I'm wondering if that's true for the SR society. As far as I can tell, they can easily (kinda) add decades to someone's life. But after those decades have passed, I'm quite sure that there will be another therapy available that will add ever more decades to the life span. I'd imagine that quite a few people would not even have to expect to die of old age in SR. How much is the therapy? Not much, if you consider that a company very well might loan out the money for the therapy, and then expect to get the payment back from the wages from an extended life. I wonder how fast we'd have to cure aging in today's society in order for the same concept of escape velocity to apply nowadays. |
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Apr 7 2006, 03:26 PM
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#2
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Target Group: Members Posts: 30 Joined: 26-February 02 Member No.: 847 |
Medicine and magic have both extended life expectancy in Shadowrun, but I really doubt that they would continue to do so indefinitely. You might be expected to live until 87, but I doubt you are going to be hale and hearty. Most likely you'll be feeble and prone to sickness like the majority of the elderly who are currently alive at that age.
And why would a corporation spring for any sort of 'gene therapy' or anything that would extend your life expectancy? Right now they don't even want to pay basic insurance. The longer you are with a company the more your salary tends to go up. Rather than keep those employees corps are more likely to hire someone younger and more eager for a third of the price. All that aside one does have to wonder about elves. Their lifespan is an average of 400 years or so, and during that time they aren't supposed to really start aging until near the very end. What would you do if you were basically a 30 year old for the next three and a half centuries? |
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Apr 7 2006, 03:30 PM
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#3
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 668 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Ontario, Canada Member No.: 7,086 |
Work and save for 30-50 years, then live off the interest when I've got a million or two in the bank. Do what I want -- if it means spend 5 years in school again, do it. If it means ten years working in a specific industry, do that.
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Apr 7 2006, 03:53 PM
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#4
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 305 Joined: 2-March 03 Member No.: 4,188 |
I'd assume that they pay more to senior employees because the senior employees are worth more. If they weren't, they wouldn't pay them more (or they'd fire them and hire younger people). I don't think the corps would pay for it, I think that corps would be willing to loan money to get the therapies. If someone had to borrow :nuyen: 70,000 to live another 3 decades, then everyone wins, because that money can easily be paid back over those three decades - and after three decades, I'd imagine that the age rejuvenation therapies will have gone down in price or would have improved to add much more than 3 decades to expected lifespans. What I meant for me, personally, was not treatments to extend my senior years, but treatments to expand my middle-age years. If the length of 'middle age' can be medically extended faster than I age, I should never have to actually get older. |
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Apr 7 2006, 04:25 PM
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#5
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Target Group: Members Posts: 30 Joined: 26-February 02 Member No.: 847 |
I guess that's the holy grail...finding a way to extend your middle age years. Thus far I know that modern science hasn't been wildly successful in doing that. Sure, people are routinely up and about through their 50s and sometimes into their 60s but it's a far cry from being 30.
There are a number of health problems that begin to surface by then. People tend to get sick more often and stay sick longer. Injuries take significantly longer to heal. Mobility is decreased and usually vision and hearing begin to go. Also, Alzheimers and Dementia will hit everyone sooner or later. Of course all of this brings up another question. In Shadowrun VITAS wiped out a huge chunk of the world's population. That means overcrowding won't be a problem for some time. But eventually if you increase life expectancy and decrease the number of violent or accidental deaths you are going to run out of room and resources. Overpopulation will become a real problem. Fortunately, at least in Shadowrun, there is a built in corrective solution! Eventually horrors will flood the world and scour it of most life and we'll be back to square one! |
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Apr 7 2006, 04:36 PM
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#6
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Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,095 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Ontari-airee-o Member No.: 1,115 |
you are going to need more than 2million if you are planning to retire for 40 years. |
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Apr 7 2006, 04:42 PM
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#7
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 305 Joined: 2-March 03 Member No.: 4,188 |
I've always thought that overpopulation was a birthrate problem, not a deathrate problem. As well, as technology expands, resources go up. There's an infinite amount of resources in the universe, if we learn to tap it. |
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Apr 7 2006, 04:50 PM
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#8
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Runner Group: Members Posts: 2,598 Joined: 15-March 03 From: Hong Kong Member No.: 4,253 |
The 'average' of the stock market is roughly 7% per year. Assuming that you are earning 6% percent per year on 2M that amoutns to 120,000 a year (which is enough for a high lifestyle in SR). Of course, you also have to account for inflation as well, for the USD this has been (erm, ~2 to 2.5% per year?), which means that you'd want your principal to grow ~2.5% per year to keep up with inflation.
At 6%, this turnover happens at around 3.5M at 7%, this happens at around 2.7M per year at 8% at around 2.2M Of course, since this is supposed to last 'forever' you'd want plenty of money in 'hedge' investments, which typically return around 4-4.5% per year. So, to be 'certain' you'd need 6M (@4.5%) but aroudn 3M is probably a good a figure as any. |
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Apr 7 2006, 05:17 PM
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#9
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 305 Joined: 2-March 03 Member No.: 4,188 |
Don't forget taxes; but I'm pleased that you noticed inflation.
However, if you retire, then you're not earning. Since there are always better things to buy, people are better off earning more and more! |
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Apr 7 2006, 05:40 PM
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#10
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Midnight Toker Group: Members Posts: 7,686 Joined: 4-July 04 From: Zombie Drop Bear Santa's Workshop Member No.: 6,456 |
Overpopulation is a problem of the birth rate being higher than the death rate. It can be solved by lowering one or increasing the other to set them equal. Even if thre is a tiny inequality in the birth rate per unit of time and the death rate per unit time this inequality will cause the population to increase or decrease without bounds as time aproaches infinity. The assertion that there is an infinite ammount of resources in the universe is incorrect. While the volume of the universe is infinite (increases without bounds) that is just a bunch of empty space that makes it more difficult to get to new resources over time. The amount of resources in the universe (raw matter and energy) is finite due to the conservation of matter/energy. They never increase or decrease but they due become unusable due to entropy which inevitably leads to the heat death of the universe (or a big crunch in the unlikely event that gravity wins) either way one cannot be immortal because, by definition, one cannot survive the death of the universe. Know that every time you take a bath, use a computer, eat, breath, sleep, move, bark like a dog, cook toast, or do absolutly anything you are not only hastening your own inevitable death you are also hastening the inevitable death of everything that is, was, and ever will be. Of course, there are ways to find pseudo immortality in Shadowrun. In fact, there are pseudoimmportals in Shadowrun canon. The easiest method of gaining immortality is to be born with it, of course. There are immortal elves but being born one is impractical for most people. The most practical solution for humans and orks is to become infected with HMHVV-1. You'll stop aging and gain regeneration. Dwarves, Trolls, and elves get the short end of the stick here since they tend to lose their minds. Gene therapy and drugs can possibly simulate the effects of being an immortal elf or of being a vampire without any of the annoying side effects sometime in the future. But magic is the tried and true way to become immortal. By ED canon magic can extend one's life indefinatly and even cure death. In fact, one particular horror power could cure throwing yourself into a sea of magma out of hopeless despair. If Shadowrun magicians could rediscover that little gem it would be worth a fortune. |
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Apr 7 2006, 06:15 PM
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#11
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 668 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Ontario, Canada Member No.: 7,086 |
Assuming you can get 6% interest... 2 million means that you're getting 120k a year. Even if taxes take half that... I think I could handle living on 60k a year. The trick to making it last is to not take out the core, only interest. |
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Apr 7 2006, 06:19 PM
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#12
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Horror Group: Members Posts: 5,322 Joined: 15-June 05 From: BumFuck, New Jersey Member No.: 7,445 |
Or you can go for 30K a year, and let it keep compounding. :)
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Apr 7 2006, 06:29 PM
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#13
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 305 Joined: 2-March 03 Member No.: 4,188 |
Remember to factor in inflation though. Your sustainable 60k is nice today, but in 30 years it will be the equivalent of 30k a year (if inflation is just above 2%)
The entropy I cause is a minor portion of the sun's entropy, really. I may be destroying chemical bonds, but in the current scheme of the things, the sun is pumping out vast amounts of energy that I can do anything I want with. My conserving fuel does not significantly change the effective lifespan of the sun. If I endeavour to capture and use the sun's entropy, it's no different than if I never captured the entropy in the first place.
Nearly. It's a problem if we grow faster than new resources become available (because the per capita wealth/resources/food goes down). But if new resources/wealth/food grow FASTER than the growth curve, then the per capita resources increases even with the growth rate. So, if over population bothers you, you have three choices: - encourage the deaths of old people - encourage the reduction of the birth rate - encourage the discovery of new resources, or more efficient uses of current resources. When put like that, one option seems much more moral than the other. |
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Apr 7 2006, 07:19 PM
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#14
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Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,095 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Ontari-airee-o Member No.: 1,115 |
I am sure that it will be soon where anyone can become a ghost in the machine. that will be the next leap for Otaku (Otaku-Prime), they will exist purely in the matrix. The problem is that if you get crashed in there ... game's over bud. Don't get caught in a system that is shutting down, But I am sure they will have some kind of nexus protocol. |
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Apr 7 2006, 07:22 PM
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#15
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Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,095 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Ontari-airee-o Member No.: 1,115 |
If you are pulling 6% you are doing well. Over all inflation rounds out at 2.5-3% a year, some years are more some are less. You have to make sure that your base pool increases by at least this amount in order to not run out of money. Sure in 40 years you will draw 60K, but that will be like drawing 10K now. Money is designed to devalue. |
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Apr 7 2006, 07:27 PM
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#16
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 668 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Ontario, Canada Member No.: 7,086 |
Then you direct that percent of the interest into the core.. It's still not a problem.
2 million core, to get 40k a year, only needs 2% above inflation. The point is, it can be done -- not how easy, or what the numbers are, just that it's possible. Or, you can work longer, and have a bunch extra to do other things to in order to make money grow. I prefer the "I'm getting x amount a year for sure, so if I don't WANT to work every year of my life, I don't have to -- I can take 10 years and go do something else, come back, and try a different job". |
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Apr 7 2006, 07:39 PM
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#17
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Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,095 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Ontari-airee-o Member No.: 1,115 |
So you are telling me that if you work for 40 years you will have 2 million (compounded at 2.5% annually for 40 years) saved up? the figure btw is 5,370,127.68. You will need that to draw your 2% which is 106K a year needed to survive. If you do, will be much better off than 99.9999 of your peers. Everyone that I know has an RRSP where they will draw off the residual, and have $0 when they die. You also have to pay taxes.
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Apr 7 2006, 08:06 PM
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#18
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Incertum est quo loco te mors expectet; Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 6,546 Joined: 24-October 03 From: DeeCee, U.S. Member No.: 5,760 |
Keep in mind, the original numbers were depending on constant stock growth of about 6%. That isn't a reasonable wager over the course of 40 years. With a diverse portfolio, you're unlikely to really LOSE money, but you'll find that some years you'll pull in 3-4% and others you'll pull in 9-10%. Unfortunately, in all those years, you'll still need to eat regularly. So to be on the safe side, you'll want to assume a rate LOWER than 6%.
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Apr 7 2006, 08:13 PM
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#19
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 668 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Ontario, Canada Member No.: 7,086 |
Depends on the interest rates. They do change over time -- right this minute, bad plan. Start it when the interest rate is higher.
And shoot.. the math I did for this is out of date -- 5 years, actually. I really didn't know that current interest rates were down to 2.5-2.8%. But, even with that taken into account, I would work myself crazy for a few decades -- having x amount extra income later in life means that when working minimal to ordinary amounts, I'm nicely off. And yes, it depends on living on very little for the first while. |
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Apr 7 2006, 08:22 PM
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#20
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 305 Joined: 2-March 03 Member No.: 4,188 |
Well, now you and everyone else can worry a bit about the concept of escape velocity. If aging interventions (treatments that add to your healthy life span) are developed at a rate greater than the rate that you're aging - you have a reasonable chance of living a long, long time.
This means that it would be intelligent to start working NOW on a perpetual retirement (instead of a 20 year retirement). I certainly don't think we're as likely to die at 85 as the statistics nowadays predict. |
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Apr 7 2006, 09:19 PM
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#21
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Incertum est quo loco te mors expectet; Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 6,546 Joined: 24-October 03 From: DeeCee, U.S. Member No.: 5,760 |
Some of us are working now on a perpetual retirement :P Why do you think I spend so much on lottery tickets?
Truthfully though, most people will find that rather than perpetual retirement, they'll do better on perpetual part-time. I wouldn't be broken hearted if I had to work 20 hours a week. |
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Apr 7 2006, 09:29 PM
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#22
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 126 Joined: 20-December 05 Member No.: 8,088 |
I can't financially afford to live now, how can I afford to in perpetuity?
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Apr 7 2006, 09:31 PM
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#23
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 305 Joined: 2-March 03 Member No.: 4,188 |
Absolutely. I would expect that in SR, it would be similar.
They'd get a loan to pay for rejuv, and then work off the loan. I'm entirely certain that the rate they're progressing means that a middle-class person would never have to die of old age. I'm trying to calculate how much faster anti-aging treatments would have to progress in the real world for me to have a reasonable chance of never dying of old age. |
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Apr 7 2006, 11:39 PM
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#24
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Target Group: Members Posts: 31 Joined: 18-March 03 Member No.: 4,270 |
My signituer staits my view of this. :smoken:
. . . . . . v |
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Apr 8 2006, 04:44 AM
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#25
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Uncle Fisty Group: Admin Posts: 13,891 Joined: 3-January 05 From: Next To Her Member No.: 6,928 |
IIRC, from SOTA 63, leonization treatment, which basically returns the body to it' s state of mid-twenties (Yamana just did this according to System Failure) costs about 1 million, and takes 1 essence. So you can extend your life span, but it's rough, and costly.
As far as companies paying for it, I can see them doing this if it's 1) an up there VP 2) a very important/visionary researcher, or 3) they can get the person to sign a lifetime contract, which are not unheard of in SR, and simply take the interest and payments from the persons paycheck, as well as perhaps set a salary cap for a while.Or just never promote them. |
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