Earthlike Planets May be Common...., Then where the hell is everybody? Options Track this topic Email this topic Print this topic Download this topic Subscribe to this forum Display Modes Switch to: Outline Standard Switch to: Linear+

[Derek]

According to this CNN article, the latest studies indicate that Earthlike planets may be rather common (they estimate up to 1/3rd of solar systems should have planets.

My background is physics and astronomy, so I am somewhat familiar with this, but I haven't much looked into this study. However, this again makes the fermi paradox leap into my mind.

Where in the heck is everybody, if planets are so common?!?!?!


I suppose this is only tangentially gaming related, in that all the sci-fi games postulate that thousands of star systems are inhabited. Anyways, I wanted to throw this out there, see what the opinions were.

Again, whre the heck is all the bug eyed monsters, green skinned hotties (Star Trek) and all the other alien races that should be out there?

Dave

[Backgammon]

Well, I have no background whatsoever in any of this, but isn't it extremely unlikely for life as intelligent as ours to develop? I mean, sure, you could have tons of planets with alien animals and insects, but a race intelligent enough to have spaceships or whatever? As I understand it, we humans are pratically a fluke, pure luck that everything came together to give us a change to evolve. I don't expect to see that on many other planets, no?

[Derek]

Well, yes, and no. Even if by extremely unlikely, you mean one chance in a million, then consider the number of solar systems out there, one chance in a million means a hell of a lot of intelligent races in the galaxy

One estimate states that "we can estimate the number of stars in the galaxy as roughly 100 billion", so dividing by 1,000,000 gives you 100,000 intelligent races in the galaxy. Of course, there are plenty of other factors (number of stars with earthlike planets, actual chance of an intelligent race, where that race is in it's development, etc... ) but still, the number is going to be large. And that is just our galaxy. When you consider that "The Hubble Space Telescope has found there may be 125 billion galaxies in the universe.", then things get really weird. Even if there is no FTL travel, and everyone is limited to light speed, given the age of the universe, we should have seen something by now.

So, again, where is everybody?

[craigpierce]

[Firewall]

[Moon-Hawk]

As for why we haven't seen aliens, I'd say there's a relatively narrow space between "not intelligent enough to contact us" and "intelligent enough not to contact us", if you catch my meaning.

[PBTHHHHT]

We're actually located in a sanctuary zone of space, all the interstellar alien empires around us are watching us like biologists would do and wondering when will we learn our lessons and uplift ourselves. Till then, the quarantine zone stays including the transmission blockers...

( No, I'm not being serious... or am I? ;-) )

Oh, how about... all the other life in the galaxy is empty right now because the Halo rings that fired last time has eliminated it all and our species are one of the first that's managed to develop to this stage in life. :-P Sorry, been playing too much Halo.

[craigpierce]

[Dale]

I don't think any rational conversation about extraterrestial life should include mention of a book of fairy tales.

Anyhow, look at us as a species. We've reached a certain level of technological development and use it to destroy ourselves. It's turned out to be laughably easy to obliterate an entire planet with relatively simple technology.

Therefore there might not be any intelligent aliens "near" us simply because of the chance that they destroyed themselves via environmental ruination and/or war.

[craigpierce]

[Derek]

Umm, let me see, my degree is in physics, so while not a definite indicator, it's a good sign that I am not a creationist. So, I'd appreciate if you didn't bring religion into this, and if you feel it necessary to include religion (for or against) in your comments, then I would appreciate you not commenting at all.

Thanks
Dave

[Derek]

[Ancient History]

[eidolon]

Speak for yourself. Halley's brought ETs to Earth in the 80s and again in YotC in my last campaign. :P


:D

[eidolon]

Bah. Stupid router. Double post. Bah.

[Dranem]

If you want to go along the fictional line of 'Boldy going where no Man has gone before" and green skinned hotties. Or even a few other authors...
We probably won't meet other interstellar beings untill we become insterstellar beings.
As stated in Star Trek a few times. "Humanity is too primitive at this state to pose an interest."
I mean, outside of slave labour, what contribution could we give to an intergalactic species?

A great author once quoted. "The proof that intelligent life exists out there is that they haven't tried to contact us."

Galactic Empires may expand or fall, but untill Earth proves to be asset or a threat, we'll never know who's really out there.

[Backgammon]

[Frag-o Delux]

The current estimation would have to be taken with a huge grain of salt though. It even says in the wiki (which is just what the admins of the wiki site have assumed to true based on number of people saying its true) that those estimation are based on ONE example of life. No real science is going to be taken serious if only one example of proof is brought in and then not repeatable. And who knows if life on Earth started on Earth? The meteor that was from Mars (I forget its offical designation) had bacterial material in it. Or at least evidence that it was made by bacteria. Bacteria is a life form. Some people have speculated that life on Earth got its start from from bits of Mars being blown off by an asteroid sending genetic material to a planet that would let it grow. And has been mentioned before, just because the conditions arent right for human style life why not life that cab with stand the ration levels or gas levels, or why does life have to be organic at all, fringe UFO followers believe that one of the aliens that like to visit us are silicon based. Anything involved in this equation would have to be highly suspect. Cause really we are now starting to think (not just believe sci fi fiction) that Mars really did have life on it at one time (and possibly be us) and there is considerable thought that Europa may have at least bacterial life on it as well. So if in the next 50 years of so we discover life had exsisted on Mars and pissbily on Europa, the estimate of life bareing planets per star would have to be increased, using this one system model.

But Im biased as well, I cant think that of all the planets in the universe, we are the only one to have life on it, even if its the only one with "intelligent" life.

[Derek]

Yeah, Drake's equation is a good start, but change just one of the variables, and the end result varies wildly.

Anyways, I happen to believe that there are plenty of others out there. Hopefully we'll find out within my lifetime.

[hyzmarca]

Why is everybody? They're still living comfortably on their own planets and in their near solar systems because FTL isn't.


Consider that you are living comfortably on your planet or somewhere in your near solar system and someone suggests that you may want to say hello to your neighbors. Your neighbors, of course, live tens of thousands of years away using the fastest vessels available to you and your life span is about a century. So, when your decendants do reach your neighbors' planet none of them will remember you because you've been dead for many generations even with realtivistic time-dilation.

Second, consider the cost of building, fueling, and supplying an ark of this type. It will have to carry many generations worth of food, water, clothing, and other supplies. It will also have to carry a rather absurd amount of fuel so that it can accelerate to a realitivistic velocity and then slow down again. Enough fuel for a return trip won't be necessary because everything you know and love would have been dead for more than twenty thousand years if the ship ever does return and there is a very good chance that no one on your planet will even remember that they send a spaceship out.

Never forget the vast distances involved in space travel. Even if there is intelligent life (which is probable) actually meeting them is darn near impossible.

[Backgammon]

Frag: I have NO doubt there is TONS of life out there. Bacteria, insects, whatever. But I'm talking about intelligent life equal or superior to ours. It's just so damn unlikely. I'm not saying there isn't any, just that it's a needle in a haystack.. the universe is BIG. We may never meet our neighbours.

Derek: Certainly. I mean, an equation to calculate alien empires... Like you say, at this point, it's a matter of belief. You choose to believe how much alien life there is. Everyone and anyone can argue about how much they think there is, no one knows for now.

hyz: yeah, good point. If I remember correctly, when travelling in space, you age slower than earthbound people. So not only are you gone for a long ass time, you're gone for an even LONGER long ass time than you feel. At this point, though, I believe there could be a way to travel faster than light. Much, much faster. Damn equations that say it's impossible. We haven't discovered everything about the universe yet...

Oh, and to add some flavour to the mix, what about extra-universe life? I think scientists have pretty much narrpwed down that multiple parrallel (ala Sliders, I guess) exist. We've barely begun to explore this, but what about beings from other dimensions poking around in ours?

[Frag-o Delux]

I have a feeling there is plenty of intelligent life out there. Even if transmissions from earth moves at the speed of light, how long would it take reach them or we get theirs? I mean we are listening for any repeated significant signal and broadcasting on the frequecy of water. How long before it reaches them? Even our furtherest satellite has barely escaped out solar system. And even if the aliens could hear us, who says they want to talk to us. Look at the shit we are doing to each other, and scifi movies about the shit we are doing to them. Thats like going to Georgia and squeeling like a pig on the mountain tops. Or maybe they just think we are too juvenile. What do you think wed do if we found a planet full of apes?

Anything we have seen here on earth that maybe considered extraterreterial is almost out right called a hoax or sightings of mad men and dismissed out right.

[Derek]

We've been broadcasting since the early 20th century. Figure almost a 100 years of radio traffic, and while most of is absorbed by the atmosphere, radio waves actually propagate to infinity. So, while a very high sensitivity reciever would be required, as well as good noise filters, our transmissions have gone approximately a hundred light years out. Plenty of solar systems within that reach.

And considering that, if there is anyone else out there, there is bound to be something more advanced than us, we should be picking up their radio transmissions as well. Maybe not deliberate attempts to communicate, but the leakage that comes from when they first started transmitting.

The relativistic affects are what slow your aging (actually slow your perception of time) as you start to get close to the speed of light. It really only has a decent effect when you start going 2/3rd's of the speed of light, below that it is mostly negligible (although it still exists)

As for going faster than light, nothing in the equations say it is impossible. Only the part about actually going the speed of light. It takes infinte energy to accelerate to exactly the speed of light. Going faster than that isn't ruled oout. Now, there are some causal problems with getting somewhere faster than light would have got there (case/effect), but there are ways around that, as well.

However, even assuming that there is no FTL travel, a species that had space flight for 1000 years would have inevitbaly started spreading around the galaxy, and 1000 years is very very minor in the time scale of the universe. So, if some race developed space flight 100,000 years ago, and they were in our galaxy, we would have seen them by now, if they weren't trying to hide, that is.

Oh well. Enough for today.

[cybertrucker]

Well Dave seeing as how we have freedom of speach and freedom of religion I doubt very highly that anyone cares if you dont want someone bringing up their beliefs about religion or not. If you dont like that someone is bringing up on religion then dont read it. Do not though however try to take away their rights to speak up on how they believe.

Thats one of the problems going on in the US right now.. There are people who dont believe in God or some religion and start complaining when other people express or show their beliefs or religion. What gives them the right to have their views strip away the rights of others that believe differently.

Personally I am not religious. I however have no problems hearing God announced in the Pledge. Or having someone say Merry CHRISTmas to me. It upsets me though to see others try to shut those that believe differently up.

[Firewall]