[RL] SR technology by 2029? Options

[Method]

Link

Very interesting story. If this guy is right, an AI overlord might take over before we even get close to 2060...

This post has been edited by Redjack: Feb 17 2008, 08:22 PM

Reason for edit: Flagged as RL

[bibliophile20]

Hell, I saw a prediction back around New Years that predicted that we will have computers with computational power to equal the human brain by 2013 (exponential growth, gotta love it) and by 2023 we will have computers with a $1000 price tag that will exceed the power of the human brain. And, while forecasting technical info beyond 15 years is incredibly difficult, at the current rate of growth, by 2049, a $1000 computer will be smarter than the entire human race.

[Jaid]

nonsense. we aren't even remotely close to developing anything that is truly intelligent. you can't really even predict when we will be close to that, because all we can really predict is when we might be able to give a computer detailed enough instructions for it to make decisions of a certain complexity... which isn't really "intelligent" at all.

[Lionhearted]

to add some old style shadowrun paranoia.
So we will have nanobots programmed by other humans, inserted into our brains to mess with our neural network?
Not on my watch pal, sounds like an extremely efficient way for corperations (or goverments) to gain total control over the population, hell they can tell those little machines to do anything they want, like brainwashing us, or what if some sell away (or maybe megalomaniac) programmer reprogram the bots for his own purposes? what about technical malfunctions? Computer viruses.. sounds like a risky endevour just to gain a little extra intelligence, and to add to that, i would like to refer to Franktrollman's argumentation of the math subprocessor http://forums.dumpshock.com/index.php?showtopic=19657

[nezumi]

Computers are approaching human intelligence? Man, that's depressing. All we need is another few million individuals who are more worried about what Paris Hilton is up to than their personal finances.

[Lionhearted]

Computers are approaching human intelligence? Man, that's depressing. All we need is another few million individuals who are more worried about what Paris Hilton is up to than their personal finances.

now that's intresting are they refering to the average IQ or the exceptional IQ, if they talk about the average, somedays it feels like machines already passed that border (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wobble.gif)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VntFEWF8I8A

[hobgoblin]

intelligence isnt what we should measure the computers by, adaptability is.

computers will still only do what its told to do, and do it in a very linear and non-adaptive way.

hell, they cant even adapt their responses to fit the problem they have, resulting in many well paid people basically being a psychologist to a emo computer...

nah, the day one can interact with a computer like one interact with a assistant (go do this and that) and expect it do be done, and most common errors accounted for in a failsafe manner, then one can start to talk.

its more likely that people will descend to machine level, then machines will ascend to human level given the current trends...

the generations before us put their life on the line for free will, we toss that legacy away to keep the money flowing...

[Kingmaker]

Hasn't this guy been preaching this sort of thing for a while now, and has been forced to push back his predictions because the technology curve isn't being cooperative?

[Method]

Yeah, I did a quick google search and apparently this guy has written a number of books and works closely with Alcor the weirdos that are freezing famous people for future reanimation. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/cyber.gif)

But as wacky as his ideas are, he seems to be a renowned "futurist"... for whatever thats worth...

[the_dunner]

nah, the day one can interact with a computer like one interact with a assistant (go do this and that) and expect it do be done, and most common errors accounted for in a failsafe manner, then one can start to talk.

Sounds like you want a computer that can past a standard Turing Test. Honestly, I'd be much more surprised if that weren't available by 2029 than if it were.

It's been a while (like 10 years) since I did much theoretical reading on the subject. However, I think the problem at this stage lays more in the programming side of things than it does in the technology. There've been a number of attempts to simulate a neural network using Beowulf clusters and other high processing power systems that get into the right neighborhood.

The hardware to emulate a human mind is probably available today. However, mankind just doesn't know enough about how the mind works to properly emulate it. In order for that to happen, we're going to need to see some real progress in psychology as a hard science. I think it's unreasonable to assume that won't happen within the next 20 years.

[Teulisch]

computers get faster with better storage, graphics get cooler and into HD. and the level design and AI of your average game is still crap half the time. it dosent matter how good a computer we minght build, if we dont actually apply the technology.

the key uses of these computers, is making it easier for research to progress, letting scientists do the math for their work faster. we dont WANT computers to think. a thinking computer could put some programmers out of a job. we want to get our data processed faster, without having to wait to use the computer. the average man does not need a more powerfull machine, and only has to upgrade to run all the new programs that keep coming out. we upgrade because everyone else upgrades, not because we need to upgrade.

[hobgoblin]

and more often then not these days, most features in any program are not used by in the area of 90% (ah, the glory of on the spot statistics) of its users.

hell, most of the requirements for windows vista comes from its 3D powered desktop...

and for whatever reason windows xp seems to send my desktop computer into swap hell while the linux i have installed on the same machine bare touch swap while doing similar tasks...