RUSSIAN ANALYST PREDICTS DECLINE AND BREAKUP OF USA Options

[Shadowfox]

RUSSIAN ANALYST PREDICTS DECLINE AND BREAKUP OF USA
Tue Nov 25 2008 09:04:22 ET

A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.

Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.

Disturbingly similar to the Shadowrun universe.

[Earlydawn]

I don't know whether I should laugh at the lunacy of this article coming out of a country that just jacked up its defense budget during times of relative stability, or take heed of advice given by the country that mastered impractical spending. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/indifferent.gif)

Seems like an interesting, sexy article from an outsider's perspective, but it shows a pretty deep ignorance in regard to our domestic situation. Things aren't great, but we've been through worse, and nobody's asking me to sign a petition of secession when I walk to work.

[masterofm]

Wow... that certainly is a prediction. The funny thing about predictions is that they predictions, not truth. People have predicted the world was going to end years/decades/centuries ago yet here we are still managing to mess everything up.

Also please refrain from using nothing but caps in a title. It is just like constantly yelling. No one needs it and no one enjoys it.

[hyzmarca]

There was this thing in the 30s called the Great Depression. Compared to that, this little market correction is damn trivial.

Russia, not too long ago, endured the break up of the Soviet Union. This almost certainly colored the author's perspective. But there is far too much patriotic solidarity for nothing less than the Native Americans rising up and reclaiming their lands would result in such a breakup.

[Aaron]

Yeah, I'm not at all convinced of the quality of the analysis of this "political expert." I'm unilaterally sentencing him to disemvoweling:

[ Spoiler ]

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[DWC]

Am I the only one who saw this and expected it to be more spammers?

[Muspellsheimr]

When humanity falls, squirrels shall inherit the earth.

[ Spoiler ]

In an alliance with several of the worlds economic superpowers, squirrels are buying out the northern territories. There, they grow & hoard massive amounts of acorns, which they will use to flood the United States. Once the U.S. is firmly under their control, they will use it's nuclear arsenal & acorns of DOOM! to bring the rest of the world under heel.

Feel the Wrath of my NUTS!

It's true - just look around. The proof is everywhere.



Squirrels are the source of all evil (IMG:style_emoticons/default/devil.gif)

[Kurious]

While I think it is unwise to consider what is coming down the pike as a paltry 'market correction' (you don't just make trillions of dollars out of thin air without serious consequences down the line)... I also think Russia is conducting an exercise in wishful thinking- and not predicting anything.

I see the US merging with Canada and Mexico long before a Shadowrunesque break up.

[MaxMahem]

It never ceases to amaze me how foreign viewers consistently drastically overestimate the level of 'separatist' feelings within the modern US. I live in the hot-bed of what some might consider one of the most likely successionalist regions, that is Texas. And even here, a modern day succession is unspeakably unlikely.

Maybe its because ethnic and regional identities still play such a large part in the politics of many foreign nations. Which makes it hard for those observers to understand that at an ever increasing since the American Civil War, regionalisim has been on the decline and an 'American' national identity has been on the rise. Indeed, while some traces of regional identities still remain, ethnic and religious identities have been mostly eliminated (with some obvious exceptions), and where they remain, they have little to do with any sort of succesionalist feeling.

It's just a different concept I guess. I, like most Americans, would have a great deal of trouble seeing myself in the light of my (very muddled) ethnic identity. Which makes it hard for me to understand how the concept of being a Kurd, or Georgian, or Scotsman, or Tutsi, or any other ethnic identity could be more important than my national identity. The same generally goes for religious identities as well. But, I suppose they have trouble seeing my position as well.

[PBTHHHHT]

It's just a different concept I guess. I, like most Americans, would have a great deal of trouble seeing myself in the light of my (very muddled) ethnic identity. Which makes it hard for me to understand how the concept of being a Kurd, or Georgian, or Scotsman, or Tutsi, or any other ethnic identity could be more important than my national identity. The same generally goes for religious identities as well. But, I suppose they have trouble seeing my position as well.

That's the thing, the US is more unique compared to other countries in that we took in immigrants from elsewhere and integrate them into our society, much more so than other countries. Possibly a big thing is that in the beginning the country was so small and so frontier-ish, we didn't care as much of where you come from (generalization) and more of what you do (again, generalization).

Plus, we already hashed it out from the civil war and after that, I think no one wants to go through that ever again... Well most people. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nyahnyah.gif)

Still, we have one more test for the end of the world, the end of the mayan calender. We make it through that, we may be okay for a bit longer. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

[Spark]

right so who wants to place bets on the out come of a shadowrun agains this guy (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nyahnyah.gif) keeping the ppl in the know out of it >> oh wait this is America were more likely to nuke the middle east or Korea than split up.

[Wounded Ronin]

The article made me pee my pants laughing. Well, almost. I held it in. And I'm wearing shorts.

[Fix-it]

where did you get this? pravda?

[masterofm]

The Mayan calender does not predict the end of the world it predicts "catastrophic events." The downfall of the Mayans, the invasion of Cortez, these were not end of the world events but just events about Mexico getting boned hardcore. The Mayan calender does not give any type of prediction, just that something bad is going to happen, or something good is going to happen. Almost like a universal fortune cookie clock.

For America to break up Shadowrun style the majority of Americans not only have to lose faith in the system of government, but also be willing to revolt, and I just don't think that is going to happen in our lifetime. If you ask most Americans if the US will break up they will probably laugh in your face... or try and beat you up for not being a Patriot. America is an idea, and with that idea comes the idea of unity. Trying to insert the idea of the United states not being unified to most people in the US is like thinking that everyone will start communicating with sock puppets with various pictures of "smiley faces" instead of words. Even if people grumble about how stupid it all is most people want change to happen from the inside, not a total wipe of government and Shadowrun style breakups.

Russia is also not the US and when it changed many individual areas that never wanted to be under the USSR (or for that matter Russia,) because they had a completely different culture, or had been oppressed for decades and have wanted out for a very long time (a.k.a. had revolts suppressed for dozens of years.) Since the US killed off most of the Native Americans the identity of America lies in its culture not its people. Russia is just a wee bit different, and maybe one day America will fall into anarchy, but it is not just around the river bend.

[Spark]

The Mayan calender does not predict the end of the world it predicts "catastrophic events." The downfall of the Mayans, the invasion of Cortez, these were not end of the world events but just events about Mexico getting boned hardcore. The Mayan calender does not give any type of prediction, just that something bad is going to happen, or something good is going to happen. Almost like a universal fortune cookie clock.

For America to break up Shadowrun style the majority of Americans not only have to lose faith in the system of government, but also be willing to revolt, and I just don't think that is going to happen in our lifetime. If you ask most Americans if the US will break up they will probably laugh in your face... or try and beat you up for not being a Patriot. America is an idea, and with that idea comes the idea of unity. Trying to insert the idea of the United states not being unified to most people in the US is like thinking that everyone will start communicating with sock puppets with various pictures of "smiley faces" instead of words. Even if people grumble about how stupid it all is most people want change to happen from the inside, not a total wipe of government and Shadowrun style breakups.

Russia is also not the US and when it changed many individual areas that never wanted to be under the USSR (or for that matter Russia,) because they had a completely different culture, or had been oppressed for decades and have wanted out for a very long time (a.k.a. had revolts suppressed for dozens of years.) Since the US killed off most of the Native Americans the identity of America lies in its culture not its people. Russia is just a wee bit different, and maybe one day America will fall into anarchy, but it is not just around the river bend.

so what youre saying is its better to kill and wipe out than enslave... sounds like a true runner to me (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nyahnyah.gif) . (note: I kid)

[Rasumichin]

Seems like an interesting, sexy article from an outsider's perspective,

Not really.
If i wouldn't know that this guy is totally nuts, i'd be scared by the idea of Russia acting as a "regulator in Eurasia".

When humanity falls, squirrels shall inherit the earth.

Not that squirrel theory of yours again.
Everybody knows it's bunnies we have to be afraid of.
Just consider all the carrots these pesky little rodents eat.
What do they need such good eyesight for anyway?

where did you get this? pravda?

Izvestija, which, given the standing of independent media in Russia, comes quite close to that, yeah.
It's just reassuring people that Medvedev should go on monopolizing ressources, crushing freedom of speech and cause a ruckus over the US rocket shield in Eastern Europe.
Especially considering that he claims things such as "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite" as reasons for the crisis.
Oh, and the fact that that guy is employed by the Russian ministry of foreign affairs.

[KCKitsune]

But there is far too much patriotic solidarity for nothing less than the Native Americans rising up and reclaiming their lands would result in such a breakup.

Then the US government would blow the shit out of Native Americans... or give them some cheap rotgut and let them drink themselves into a stupor. Sorry, it took the writers of Shadowrun breaking reality and then some to make the NAN.

[pbangarth]

You always have to see where a guy is coming from to know what motivates him, and this even applies to academics, such as professor Panarin. So, yeah, Izvestia, and a political climate where propaganda wins out over truth make anything this guy says suspect. The trick is to account for that suspicion and see if one can get anything useful from underneath the propaganda.

Trillions of dollars, folks. Even those of us who love you guys are worried for you, and for ourselves. There are think tanks in other countries that also argue the U.S. economy is a runaway train. The ones who could rein in the train are dealing with the issue with the same ideology that sent good young soldiers to faraway places over imaginary threats.

I wonder how long it took people going into the Great Depression to realize they were going into a Great Depression?

Peter

[Spark]

Then the US government would blow the shit out of Native Americans... or give them some cheap rotgut and let them drink themselves into a stupor. Sorry, it took the writers of Shadowrun breaking reality and then some to make the NAN.

meh i dunno more like certain designer blankets imo. >> But yeah the PR for committing genocide in the US would be steep so it would likely come down to belief system rather than racial identity.

[Hatspur]

Wow, a Russian analyst predicts the breakdown of the US after American-Russian relations have been deteriorating for how long? This is not only poorly timed propaganda on the analyst's part, it proves how lazy Russian intelligence gatherers are.

If you look into a brief history of the cold war and intelligence agencies within Russia, some of their agents in the United States would send back small excerpts of the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Daily Podunk Shitrag (stolen, I know) or what have you, and call that their intelligence report. I know it sounds lazy to send clips of newspaper back to the Kremlin and call your work done, but the media was so controlled in the Soviet Union that the information contained in your average newspaper was sometimes very relevant to an intelligence organization in an authoritarian state.

This just seems like bad intel analysis on the part of the Russian analyst. It seems like a lighthearted attempt to rekindle old cold war flames by trying to rally the world around an anti American sentiment not a month after the U.S. elected a leader that the rest of world by and large approves of.

[NetWraith]

[quote name='Rasumichin' date='Nov 25 2008, 08:15 PM' post='750322'
Not that squirrel theory of yours again.
Everybody knows it's bunnies we have to be afraid of.
Just consider all the carrots these pesky little rodents eat.
What do they need such good eyesight for anyway?
[/quote]

The bunnies are just the snipers... The squirrels are the brains behind the operation. And the badgers... The badgers are the muscle.

On a serious note... I stopped reading after the first paragraph... I just felt dumb after reading that much.

[Blade]

Russia becoming a regulator in Eurasia?! (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wobble.gif) Russia itself isn't what you could call regulated!

The EIU's predictions are still the best for me, even if as they concede, they don't take into account the various threats/unexpected events that could (and probably will) completely change the deal.

[ravensmuse]

Yeah, the article had me going when the paragraph started with, "asked whom would become the next global regulator..." my mind instantly went, "hm, could it be Russia?"

Try saying that in your head like the Church Lady from SNL.

[Wesley Street]

Guess I should pack my bags for a trip to the Free City of San Francisco or whatever. See you dudes after the apocalypse. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/ohplease.gif)

You'll pardon me if I take the statement of a political analyst from a country run by ex-KGB and organized criminals with a grain of salt.

[pbangarth]

I wholeheartedly agree that sources should be analyzed critically.

That having been said, are we to assume based on sentiments posted above that any statement that comes from a Russian is either a lie or just stupid?

Peter