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> 6th World Demographics, Orc population reproductive rates vs. life spans
Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 08:25 PM
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It just hit me that Orcs are both the most common metahuman race after the baseline human, AND they have a tremendous birth rate naturally being prone to "litters" if I am recalling my old fluff correctly, and people still occasionally suffer UGE at puberty or as a consequence of a SURGE event. Now, Orcs are listed as having a VERY short natural life expectancy, but is that because of the poorer conditions demographically speaking that Orcs often seem to be subjected to (poor people don't tend to live as long) or is it a true reflection of their lifetime metabolic rate?

The second thing (and this is the part that prompted me to post this thread) is:

Is the global percentage of Metahumanity generally and Orcs specifically stable or increasing? (I think it's safe to say it's not DECREASING or Humanis would have announced success and gone rabidly on the offensive.)

Thoughts? Maybe one of the Devs want to weigh in?


(P.S.: White Dove need not reply. *grin*)
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Synner667
post Sep 3 2009, 08:30 PM
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QUOTE (Kerenshara @ Sep 3 2009, 09:25 PM) *
It just hit me that Orcs are both the most common metahuman race after the baseline human, AND they have a tremendous birth rate naturally being prone to "litters" if I am recalling my old fluff correctly, and people still occasionally suffer UGE at puberty or as a consequence of a SURGE event. Now, Orcs are listed as having a VERY short natural life expectancy, but is that because of the poorer conditions demographically speaking that Orcs often seem to be subjected to (poor people don't tend to live as long) or is it a true reflection of their lifetime metabolic rate?

Almost by definition, if Orcs breed faster [and they're not dying off in equal numbers], Orcs will be the most common metahuman breed - not baseline Humans.
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Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE (Synner667 @ Sep 3 2009, 03:30 PM) *
Almost by definition, if Orcs breed faster [and they're not dying off in equal numbers], Orcs will be the most common metahuman breed.

And the box text supports that... but is it GROWING?
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Synner667
post Sep 3 2009, 08:33 PM
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QUOTE (Kerenshara @ Sep 3 2009, 09:31 PM) *
And the box text supports that... but is it GROWING?

Unless Orcs suddenly stop having sex and breeding, their majority will only increase.
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Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 08:34 PM
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QUOTE (Synner667 @ Sep 3 2009, 03:33 PM) *
Unless Orcs suddenly stop having sex and breeding, their majority will only increase.

Unless that "35 year" life expectancy is natural in which case the breeding just keeps up with natural losses from "old age".
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Adarael
post Sep 3 2009, 08:43 PM
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I should think the 35-40 year life expectancy is the result of environment, unless something has happened to make humans die of old age sooner, as 55 is the listed lifespan for baseline humans. Or it was in an earlier book.

My opinion on Ork litters is definitely recorded on this board. I will not go into it in depth other than to say: stupid. I am obviously a filthy liar, based on my numerous responses.
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Bull
post Sep 3 2009, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE (Adarael @ Sep 3 2009, 03:43 PM) *
I should think the 35-40 year life expectancy is the result of environment, unless something has happened to make humans die of old age sooner, as 55 is the listed lifespan for baseline humans. Or it was in an earlier book.

My opinion on Ork litters is definitely recorded on this board. I will not go into it in depth other than to say: stupid.


Yeah, I pretty much agree here for the most part. I can see maybe instances of twins and triplets being significantly higher, but "Litters" where 4 or 5 or 6 or whatever is common is just kinda silly.
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rathmun
post Sep 3 2009, 08:50 PM
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QUOTE (Kerenshara @ Sep 3 2009, 02:34 PM) *
Unless that "35 year" life expectancy is natural in which case the breeding just keeps up with natural losses from "old age".



Um, no it doesn't, average lifespan relative to birth rate doesn't affect population that much. Rather, the average children produced/lifespan is the important bit.

For Sapiens Sapiens, a woman having 6 kids is very rare. For Sapiens Robustus it's average. Therefore, assuming a 50% attrition rate (death before reproduction), Robustus still increases in population by 50% per generation (out of 8 Orks, 4 survive to reproduce, resulting in 12 kids of whom 6 will survive to reproduce) Thus generation 2 is 50% larger than generation 1.

Now, as the population grows either the attrition rate must rise, or the birth rate must fall. Eventually. But in the meantime their population will rise very rapidly.
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Jaid
post Sep 3 2009, 08:55 PM
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given the stated birth rates, i am of the opinion that the listed percentages of orks is in fact ridiculously low, compared to what it should be. they're sexually and physically mature at a younger age, and tend to have a lot more children. and sure, while the poor may not have access to the greatest health care (which can greatly decrease infant mortality rates) they also generally have less money to spend on birth control, and less education about why they should use birth control in the first place.

as stated, i have a hard time believing there aren't a lot more orks out there than the numbers show. maybe someone has a soylent green factory running full tilt or something like that.
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rathmun
post Sep 3 2009, 08:56 PM
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QUOTE (Jaid @ Sep 3 2009, 02:55 PM) *
given the stated birth rates, i am of the opinion that the listed percentages of orks is in fact ridiculously low, compared to what it should be. they're sexually and physically mature at a younger age, and tend to have a lot more children. and sure, while the poor may not have access to the greatest health care (which can greatly decrease infant mortality rates) they also generally have less money to spend on birth control, and less education about why they should use birth control in the first place.

as stated, i have a hard time believing there aren't a lot more orks out there than the numbers show. maybe someone has a soylent green factory running full tilt or something like that.



Remember, the listed population statistics don't include the SINless. So the only Orks that make it into those numbers are the ones who can afford the birth control and have education on why to use it.
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X-Kalibur
post Sep 3 2009, 08:57 PM
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Soylent Green is made of people orks!
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Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 09:03 PM
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QUOTE (X-Kalibur @ Sep 3 2009, 03:57 PM) *
Soylent Green is made of people orks!

In which case, it is apropriate or INapropriate to eat Soylent Green with a Spork?
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rathmun
post Sep 3 2009, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE (Kerenshara @ Sep 3 2009, 03:03 PM) *
In which case, it is apropriate or INapropriate to eat Soylent Green with a Spork?


Well, I suppose if you're eating long pork it's appropriate.
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Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE (rathmun @ Sep 3 2009, 04:05 PM) *
Well, I suppose if you're eating long pOrk

I will not eat them with a spORK, I will not eat them with a fORK; I do not like Green Soy(lent) and Spam.

(And with that, this now heads straight down hill. *grin*)
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Synner667
post Sep 3 2009, 09:12 PM
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QUOTE (Jaid @ Sep 3 2009, 09:55 PM) *
as stated, i have a hard time believing there aren't a lot more orks out there than the numbers show. maybe someone has a soylent green factory running full tilt or something like that.

More likely, no writer/developer/player wants Orcs to be the majority breed - except as poor, rubbishy characters.

It's one of the reasons Earthdawn paints a more realistic world - Orcs aren't just the stunty grunts with no education and few prospects

Though with so many of them likely to end up in various armies, their prospects should be quite good - education, money, etc.

Without wanting to sound racist, I'd say their position and options and lives probably are not too dissimilar to that of Blacks from 1940's-70's mainly...
...And, really, should Orcs be considered the same after all the years that Shadowrun spans ??
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Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 09:18 PM
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Not to put too fine a point on it, there is even to this day a certain element in so-called "black culture" that regards those who seek to educate themselves and better their starting lot in life through their own efforts as... well as sellouts and other highly insulting terms. I can see a certain amount of that in the 6th World, as well as a lot more blatant racism on the part of a large portion of Sapiens Sapiens. Granted, OBJECTIVELY there should be huge numbers of Orcs in the military or para-military forces of governments and corps, but they don't WANT them, no matter how "good" they may be. Now I am really inspired to gin up a "breaking the mold" orc.
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X-Kalibur
post Sep 3 2009, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE (Synner667 @ Sep 3 2009, 04:12 PM) *
More likely, no writer/developer/player wants Orcs to be the majority breed - except as poor, rubbishy characters.

It's one of the reasons Earthdawn paints a more realistic world - Orcs aren't just the stunty grunts with no education and few prospects

Though with so many of them likely to end up in various armies, their prospects should be quite good - education, money, etc.

Without wanting to sound racist, I'd say their position and options and lives probably are not too dissimilar to that of Blacks from 1940's-70's mainly...
...And, really, should Orcs be considered the same after all the years that Shadowrun spans ??


Nothing racist about it, the source material has pointed to orks in 2070 being parallel similar to blacks of the 1970s. I mean, Orxploitation?
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Screaming Eagle
post Sep 3 2009, 09:20 PM
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Actually you also need to take into account their lower age for maturity (breeding). An Orc mother can easily have well over 8 offspring over her life, 2-3 pregnancies, bam. Humans can do similar numbers but you more or less have to "try", rather then taking up 2-3 pregnancies and several years of outlay (something many people choose) a human would be looking at 8+ preg's and most of the adult life (something few people choose)
The Orc also will tend to start about 2-4 years earlier then the Human. Enough time to "rifle off" one or 2 batches before the humans even start having naughty dreams.

As presented unless there is some outside influance thinning their numbers (disease, conflict, lack of food) or controlling their breeding (steilization, wide spread absinance, gov't incentives on smaller families) their numbers will monserously outstrip the remaining meta types over a few (shorter) generations.

Most mammals with the breeding rates listed for orc have high fatalities in infancy or are smaller prey animals and have a moderatly high death rate thought thier lives. Assuming they are not dying at or shortly after birth in droves (75% +) or that only on in 8 or so survives to breed and far fewer to breed repeatedly...

Assuming they have been around in numbers since 2030 that gives them 40 years, 2 generations. As presented each genreation will EASILY triple the previous. So a 9 fold increase in new YOUNG. 12 if you could the current breeding generation and a few of the "elderly" are still kicking around.

This is one of the few things I outright ignore in the books. I assume litters happen but are NOT the norm and twins are fairly common. I bought the population numbers back in 2050 but another 20 years is not going to result in the Orcs only gaining a few slim percentile points on the humans, not by a long shot especially if they are slotted to the stereotypical "breeding urban poor labourer" with large families in slums they seem to have been pegged for in alot of the matierial.
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eidolon
post Sep 3 2009, 09:22 PM
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QUOTE (Adarael @ Sep 3 2009, 03:43 PM) *
I should think the 35-40 year life expectancy is the result of environment, unless something has happened to make humans die of old age sooner, as 55 is the listed lifespan for baseline humans. Or it was in an earlier book.

My opinion on Ork litters is definitely recorded on this board. I will not go into it in depth other than to say: stupid.


Very, very stupid. It isn't the case in my games, because it's so bleeding stupid. Neither do elves "appear not to age," unless they happen to have the word "immortal" in their name somewhere.
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Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 09:24 PM
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Screaming Eagle,

Do you think those life expectancies are just average observed? I mean, there's a comment (or used to be in an older edition) about "based on observed metabolic rates" they put Dwarves and Elves at hundred years+ for lifespan.
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Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE (eidolon @ Sep 3 2009, 04:22 PM) *
Very, very stupid. It isn't the case in my games, because it's so bleeding stupid. Neither do elves "appear not to age," unless they happen to have the word "immortal" in their name somewhere.

It's not that they "don't appear to age", it's that with their "predicted" normal life spans, compared to a human, they age so slowly as to appear to be standing still chronologically. A human at 50 is middle age metabolically speaking, but an elf is still in the first 15% of their predicted lifespan. If they age proportionately after hitting adulthood (nothing about a 30 year childhood in the fluff) then that would basically make them look like they are still in their early twenties, leading to the perception of agelessness. In another century or so, we'll start seeing "middle aged looking" elves as a matter of course if they were born near the Awakening.
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Jaid
post Sep 3 2009, 09:43 PM
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QUOTE (rathmun @ Sep 3 2009, 04:56 PM) *
Remember, the listed population statistics don't include the SINless. So the only Orks that make it into those numbers are the ones who can afford the birth control and have education on why to use it.

either there are half a million SINners in redmond and puyallup (each; ie 1 million total) or the population figures include the SINless. personally, i'm inclined to believe the half a million includes the SINless. (then again, there are apparently 10 voting areas in each, which seems a little weird also)
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Rasumichin
post Sep 3 2009, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE (Adarael @ Sep 3 2009, 08:43 PM) *
I should think the 35-40 year life expectancy is the result of environment, unless something has happened to make humans die of old age sooner, as 55 is the listed lifespan for baseline humans. Or it was in an earlier book.


Previous editions reported a lifespan of 55 years for humans, this was labeled as the worldwide average.
The lifespans of other metatypes never where labeled as "worldwide average" and aren't in SR4.
The BBB claims that humans have an average life span of "65(worldwide)", whereas it says "more than 100 years" for dwarves, "Several hundred years" for elves, "35-45 years" for orks and "55 years" for trolls- in any case without the "(worldwide)" restriction.

Moreover, it says on p.65 :

"Many first and second generation
orks and trolls—especially those who goblinized—died young,
indicating the relatively low lifespan of these metatypes. The early
dwarfs and elves are still around, however, many of them showing
little sign of aging. Lifespans for all metatypes are on the rise,
which scientists partially ascribe to gene therapy and leonization
(anti-aging treatments) and partially to improvements in social
acceptance—leading to better medical treatment, living situations,
and other quality of life measures. Few countries, however,
factor the SINless into their average lifespan statistics—after all,
how could they?—and thus official figures may be especially
misleading, as orks and trolls are statistically more likely to be
SINless than the other metatypes."

Runner's Companion also addresses the issue on p.49 :

"The common features among all ork variants are: short gestation
periods of about 6 months, multiple births per gestation,
accelerated maturity cycle, and short life expectancies."
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Adarael
post Sep 3 2009, 10:27 PM
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Yes, Rasumichin. I know what the book says. What I am saying is that the book is retarded for saying it.

Thought experiment about ork litters.

Out of the 6 billion people around during the goblinization, let's suppose 1% goblinized into orks. This is a low number: it's probably more like 5%, given that 10% of the world's population goblinized, period. That's 60 million. They have litters, averaging 5-6 orks. Let's assume half of those die before they can reproduce, or otherwise do not have children, right? That's some insane mortality, but even so... So every generation will be triple the size of the preceding one. Let's assume the first generation of native orks is in 2020, and a new generation happens every 15 years.

2020: 180 Million new orks.
2035: 540 Million new orks.
2050: 1 billion, 650 million new orks.
2065: 4 billion, 860 million new orks.

That's a lot of orks.

Experiment 2: Let's assume 5% of the world's population becomes orks, but each generation is only double the size of the previous one, because Orks just plain get killed THAT MUCH.

2020: 600 Million
2035: 1 billion, 200 million.
2050: 2 billion, 400 million.
2065: 4 billion, 800 million.

Either way, litters are just plain not supportable unless several BILLION orks are killed every year. Shadowrun is bleak, but not THAT bleak. To give you an idea, in order for orks to sustain their shadowrun percentages WITH having litters, they would have to have a death rate on the order of 250 per 1000 orks that actually manage to reproduce. The worst places in Africa have a mortality rate of about 30 per 1000, per year. During the holocaust, after the Final Solution was enacted, there was a death rate for Jews of about 180 per 1000 per year.

Yes. In order to keep orks in check, you would have to exceed the holocaust. For decades. Seriously, that's just ridiculous.

Edit: Yes, I know this is not mathematically perfect. To compensate, I have been exceedingly generous with death rates.
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Kerenshara
post Sep 3 2009, 10:32 PM
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QUOTE (Rasumichin @ Sep 3 2009, 05:24 PM) *
Previous editions reported a lifespan of 55 years for humans, this was labeled as the worldwide average.
The lifespans of other metatypes never where labeled as "worldwide average" and aren't in SR4.
The BBB claims that humans have an average life span of "65(worldwide)", whereas it says "more than 100 years" for dwarves, "Several hundred years" for elves, "35-45 years" for orks and "55 years" for trolls- in any case without the "(worldwide)" restriction.

Moreover, it says on p.65 :

"Many first and second generation
orks and trolls…quot;especially those who goblinized…quot;died young,
indicating the relatively low lifespan of these metatypes. The early
dwarfs and elves are still around, however, many of them showing
little sign of aging. Lifespans for all metatypes are on the rise,
which scientists partially ascribe to gene therapy and leonization
(anti-aging treatments) and partially to improvements in social
acceptance…quot;leading to better medical treatment, living situations,
and other quality of life measures. Few countries, however,
factor the SINless into their average lifespan statistics…quot;after all,
how could they?…quot;and thus official figures may be especially
misleading, as orks and trolls are statistically more likely to be
SINless than the other metatypes."

Runner's Companion also addresses the issue on p.49 :

"The common features among all ork variants are: short gestation
periods of about 6 months, multiple births per gestation,
accelerated maturity cycle, and short life expectancies."

So, your vote? What do you think the "natural" old age point is for orcs (and trolls)?
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