[X] My Assistant

[Minchandre]

Where did you see the info about a war with the Caliphate? I know about some border movements around that time, but if it developed into an all-out war the almanac would have probably mentioned it.

State of the Art 2064 mentions the war in a series of shadowtalk comments. Israel launched a preemptive strike, and the war saw what's-his-face outed as a shedim.

About the map in 6WA, I wouldn't go by it - theres enough precedents to safely assume its probably a drawing error. However, SoA mention that Syria annexed Lebanon at some stage.

Right, but given the 2064 war, presumably Israel annexed Lebanon from Syria to serve as a buffer or something. Again, we have no clue. It's maddening.

The biggest challenge with the region, imo, is to explain in details how the peace with the Palestinians came to reality.

It's completely handwaved. Still, SoA makes it sound like Palestine is a complete protectorate, so maybe the Israeli leadership made the offer, and the Palestinian leadership decided that something was better than nothing. Who knows?

[Wesley Street]

I think these two passages are interesting:

Israel survived the Jihad thanks to aid from miltech corps, effective intelligence sources throughout the Arab countries, its nuclear capabilities and unexpected support from some Palestinians. A good fraction of the Palestinians refused to join the Alliance for Allah; on the verge of getting their own state, they didn’t want to destroy decades of painfully built hopes. Israel threatened to detonate suitcase nukes in Arab capitals after a first onslaught was contained at atrociously high cost. They bombed Turkish-occupied Cyprus in retaliation, then hit
several Arab command centers, refineries and supply routes with small tactical nukes. The Alliance got the message, the Jihad’s command structure in Palestine crumbled and the combatants signed a cease-fire.

Relations have improved between Israel and autonomous Palestine ever since, partly thanks to the security fence that separates us from them, but that is easier to cross legally than before. Talks are scheduled in October for putting the finishing touches on the creation of sovereign Palestine. If things go well, the Republic of Palestine should be born on January 1st, 2065. Tensions are high on both sides, and we don’t really trust the Palestinians, whose political landscape is infested with extremists. The NIJ has gained ground among the poorest classes, and the Palestinian government lacks supporters. We have our own bunch of morons, the ultra-orthodox community that thrived during and after the war. They’ve become a big political force, threatening the mutual agreement between Israel and Palestine.

So while the rest of the Sixth World has fallen into a tribal state of paranoia, Israel (one of the most security paranoid nations in the world) has said, "You go your way, Palestine, and we'll go Yahweh."

I'm pissed that Palestine & Israel didn't get a write-up in 6WA.

[Adarael]

Actually its pronounced "Shabak"...
...The biggest challenge with the region, imo, is to explain in details how the peace with the Palestinians came to reality.

My bad. My knowledge of Hebrew is really rudimentary. As for Palestine, the only way I could rationalize it was something along the lines of Ireland and England: Israel decides Palestine is too much damn trouble, especially with Syria and Jordan falling apart, and wanted to use Palestine as a buffer against the radical forces in those nations. Better the devil you know and have lived with, etc, etc. No, it's not perfect, but that's life.

I'm also skeptical of this notion that. "XXXXX country keeps the corporate powers on a leash." If you don't sign the corporate recognition occords the CC lets your economy die, they control your ability to export and they can interdict your shipments at sea. Don't like it, tough.

It's not "keeps them on a leash", it's "keeps them fighting each other and gives them preferred status if they deal nice." Israel is absolutely in bed with at least Saeder-Krupp and Ares, but it's not 100% puppet like the UCAS is. I would say that in terms of autonomy vs corporate control, it occupies a state somewhat akin to the Sioux Nation or Imperial Japan. It is a strong and defined nation that survives because the politicians the Corporate Court would ordinarily buy out (such as in the UCAS) are hard-line nationalists - they'll deal with the CC favorably, but they won't sell out their autonomy to do it.

If the Corporate Court WANTED to destroy Israel, they probably could. But that would be a very dangerous move for a number of reasons. First, I don't buy that Israel wouldn't go nuclear if they were threatened as a nation - they destroyed Libya without a second thought, and they have certainly have the ability to strike orbital targets, so the Z-O station itself wouldn't be safe. Second, Israel is pretty much the only stable nation in the middle east. Egypt is somewhat stable, but not nearly AS stable. Losing Israel as a base of operations would mean losing their main foothold in the middle east, and given the history of the nation, I suspect Israel would play serious scorched earth tactics if the CC tried to strong-arm them and/or occupy them. At the end of the day, it's cheaper for the AAAs to deal rather than play rough, for the same reason it's cheaper for them to deal with the UCAS than just dissolve it entirely.

Edit: One other thing to note is that economically, I suspect Israel would be capable of being embargoed by the corporate court and surviving for many years, because Israel has always had a huge self-sufficiency kick. Whereas closing off the economy of the UCAS or France might cripple the nation in short order, Israel could hold out a good long time, specifically because they've developed as if this could happen *at any time*. That might be different in 2070, yeah, but the "we are under siege" mentality shouldn't be underestimated.

[Sengir]

You know, 60 years ago even the Social Democrats campaigned to restore the German borders of 1937. 40 years ago there were demonstrations demanding (Social Democrat) chancellor Willy Brandt to be hanged for high treason, because he signed the Warsaw Treaty acknowledging the new Polish-German border. Today...well, the crackpots never die out, but they are far from having any significance.

Relations between countries can change, and given that events like the Second Intifada happened after Shadowrun's point of divergence from actual history, it's certainly not less believable than the rest of SR history (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

[Adarael]

That's for real. Hell, look at Israel's relations with Jordan over the past 40 years. Jordan backed the Arab League in the Six-Day War, invading Jerusalem. And in the Yom Kippur War, they backed the League again, and ended up looking like bad guys again.

Now? Shit, King Abdullah censors any anti-Israel sentiment in the media, arrests anti-Israel protestors, and the nation is on relatively good terms with Israel. Maybe not buddy buddy, but reasonably cordial.

[Nath]

Where did you see the info about a war with the Caliphate? I know about some border movements around that time, but if it developed into an all-out war the almanac would have probably mentioned it.

State of the Art 2064 mentions the war in a series of shadowtalk comments. Israel launched a preemptive strike, and the war saw what's-his-face outed as a shedim.

Shadows of Asia, page 120, features a news update at the end of the Middle East chapter. Israel launched pre-emptive strikes against Jordan and Syrian troops on 15 August 2064 morning.

In 2063, the New Islamic Jihad put King Muhammad Abdallah under pressure. He named a hardliner government to please them. The Caliphate then annexed Jordan (as far as I understand, the King of Jordan became a vassal of the Caliph), but the New Islamic Jihad still had a strong influence on the Jordan administration and military forces. Israel considered (with a reason) the Syrian and Jordan military forces as a threat. In the following hours after the Israeli attack, rumors said the Caliph ordered the King of Jordan to withdraw its troops. Seems he obeyed as according to System Failure, only Syria and Israel really engaged a border war.

Second, Israel is pretty much the only stable nation in the middle east. Egypt is somewhat stable, but not nearly AS stable. Losing Israel as a base of operations would mean losing their main foothold in the middle east

As far as international trade goes, no matter how stable, Israel has zero value as a foothold in the Middle East. They are in a state of cold war with each and every neighboring country. Unless the Corporate Court really wants them to, there is no reason for the Arab states to end the economic boycott of Israel. Considering how tense the situation is, you can't have workers or wares going through the border one way or another without way too much of hassle, if at all (and forget about having even one armed security guard to protect them). Geographical proximity means little to globalized trade. Speed is the primary factor.

Before 1980, Israel was the opposite of a foothold. A company doing business with Israel was banned by all members of the Arab League. Even when the Congress passed a legislation in 1977 to fine companies refusing to do business with Israel, McDonald's and other companies choose to pay the fine rather than taking the risk.

[Adarael]

That would be true, were it not for the fact that the draw to operations in the Middle East isn't about speed or quality of goods, it's about extracting large amounts of raw materials (minerals, petrocarbons) to ship to Rhine-Ruhr for turning into shoes and digital devices. In 2070, we're back in full "rob them blind" mode, and a boycott of Israeli goods doesn't mean a whole lot when its primary use is as a shipping hub with actual laws. Compare how easy and convenient it is to use the Port of Long Beach vs Port of Ensenada. Long Beach puts through 7.31 million tons a year vs 2.9 million tons, despite tarriffs in Ensenada being lower, because the infrastructure in LA is just way better equipped to handle it. Same deal with Tel Aviv, given its proximity to the Suez and Mediterranean vs Jeddah or Abu Dhabi or something. You say "Geographical proximity means little to globalized trade. Speed is the primary factor," but that's just not true. Not when you're shipping raw materials, and you need the infrastructure to handle large cargo ships.

What's more, many, MANY of the nations of the middle east have failed in 2070; Iran, Iraq, Syria and Jordan are largely pockets of civilized cities with lawless wilds in between dominated by nomads and bandits. Lebanon is occupied by the New Islamic Jihad, which hates the corporate court and trade with Europe only slightly less than it hates Israel. Arabia trades with Israel, as does Egypt. Who else is left to boycott them? The north african nations, one of which was turned into a radioactive wasteland by Israel, and the rest of which avowedly have no government, and are used to play Desert Wars in?

Not a compelling picture for NOT making use of Israel. Especially since Israel has more arable land than any other region in the middle east.

[Nath]

Except Mexico and US are not at war.

Syria and Jordan were engaged in a border war with Israel as recently as 2064. Lebanon, as you said, is under control of a strongly anti-Israeli movement. Israel is not going to open its border to let traffic flow through. Even more so if they are failed states. No matter how well equipped -which is, not that much considering they are primarily containers ports, not raw materials- using the Haida and Ashdod seaports (Tel-Aviv has no significant seaport) is not "easy and convenient". It would first require months if not years of negotiations to lift the existing restrictions on trade and border crossing. And then, every time tensions flare up, everything stops. The megacorporations would certainly consider to pay for an upgrade Latakia and Tripoli seaports, maintain some security troops, and do what they want over there, instead of paying for an upgrade of Haida and Ashdod, having to comply to Israel requirements (no Arab armed guards to protect your convoys, paying taxes, and so on) and halting business every now and then.

[Adarael]

Before I get to the main thrust of information, let me say the following: I accept that you don't like my comparison of Ensenada and Long Beach. Okay, let's compare Mogadishu and Dar Es Salaam, then. Also not at war, but Mogadishu is in Somalia which is a failed state by any sensible metric, just like Syria is a failed state by any sensible metric in Shadowrun (since they have no discernable central government, post the New Islamic Jihad war).

Dar Es Salaam: 7.4 Million TEUs in 2007.
Mogadishu: 0 TEUS reported, or rather, "too little to measure", despite being duty free, SINCE 2006.

Dar Es Salaam has moved more tonnage in one year than Mogadishu has in FIVE, because Mogadishu is full of pirates, bandits, and other unsavories. When your government is by warlord, your infrastructre falls right to pieces. It should be noted that they repaired and expanded the port in 2006, specifically to attract more international ships.

As to Israel... Obviously, I disagree with your conclusions.

Let me start off by saying there are certain very basic facts about Israel in Shadowrun that we know to be true from Shadowtalk and game info:
1) Israel is still politically relevant, and is the most stable nation in the Middle East. This has been true for a long time, in the game world, and I believe first mentioned in Corporate Shadowfiles, although I could be wrong.
2) Israel is a major Ares and SK stomping ground, from which they do a lot of business and move a lot of cargo through as well.
3) Israel is more militarily potent than any of its neighbors, as evidenced by the fact that they have successfully repelled the New Islamic Jihad without suffering significant losses.

Given that these are known facts, we can be reasonably certain that Israel DOES allow corporate traffic through, and there ARE compelling reasons for the AAAs to do business there. We cannot simultaneously have the AAAs be nations unto themselves - world-striding giants, even - and have them decide NOT to operate in Israel, if we know Israel is still relevant. You say that unlike Israel and its neighbors, the US and Mexico are not at war. I say that Israel is not at war with any of its neigbors which still exist as nations: Syria, Jordan, the remnants of Lebanon that Israel doesn't control, should all resemble current-day Somalia: wastelands ruled by petty warlords.

Also, I believe Israel currently controls all of Lebanon, as I believe they annexed it from Syrian control in the war against the New Islamic Jihad. I think this is the case, anyway. At least in my world, they own most of it, including everything at least up to Beirut.

[Adarael]

Let me append as a separate post that I can see and understand the possibility of a 2073 where Israel is not relevant, where the Arab League is strong, and where the Corporate Court prefers to do business through Arabia. I really can.

But as far as I can tell, in all of the existing published material, that's not the canon 2073 of Shadowrun. The canon 2073 seems to be one with a technologically strong and competent Israel, and a shitton of failed arab states who have descended into mad-maxitude. And that's what informed by handling of Israel in my own personal game.

[Sengir]

Before I get to the main thrust of information, let me say the following: I accept that you don't like my comparison of Ensenada and Long Beach. Okay, let's compare Mogadishu and Dar Es Salaam, then. Also not at war, but Mogadishu is in Somalia which is a failed state by any sensible metric, just like Syria is a failed state by any sensible metric in Shadowrun (since they have no discernable central government, post the New Islamic Jihad war).

And a failed state is exactly what the AAAs prefer. One of the fundamental aspects of cyberpunk is that big corporations are not merchants depending on the stability and safety provided by state authority. The big cooperations are profiteers and warlords getting more powerful with the states wasting away.

[Adarael]

And a failed state is exactly what the AAAs prefer. One of the fundamental aspects of cyberpunk is that big corporations are not merchants depending on the stability and safety provided by state authority. The big cooperations are profiteers and warlords getting more powerful with the states wasting away.

This is manifestly, provably untrue. They prefer *weak* states, not *failed* ones, at least in Shadowrun. A failed state is one wherein the only kind of interaction a AAA can have with its populace is to kill them and take their stuff. They HAVE the means to do this. They haven't ever done this when states fail in Shadowrun (such as with Tsimshian, Calfree, Tir Tairngire after the collapse of the Council of Princes, etc) because there is NO profit in it. They can't buy stuff. They can't sell stuff. They can't trade stuff. All they can do is take stuff, and that's fine, but they do that anyway and it gets the neighbors less antsy than with overt military action. If what you say holds true, the Barrens and equivalent Z zones would be the most profitable places in the world for the megas, and they'd be actively engaged in expanding Z zones, rather than dealing with larger governments like the UCAS.

There can be no profeering if the people you are profiteering over have no money, no government, and no ability to honor contracts and shit. Because you're dealing with Lord Humungus and the Rust Stilettos, and all they do is blow you shit up and act crazy. There's no way to make the geopolitical landscape of Shadowrun make sense if you hold that Corporations prefer failed states AND have as much power as they are represented as having. These two things are mutually exclusive, unless everywhere that isn't a corporate enclave is a lawless wasteland ruled by chainsaw wielding nomads.

That would be a cool game, but it wouldn't be shadowrun.

[CanRay]

...

Damnit, now I want to run a game around a barricaded oil derrick...

[Nath]

Israel certainly has corporate presence. But it is not, IMO, a "foothold" in the Middle East.

As far as SOTA:2064, Shadows of Asia and System Failure go, Syria and Jordan had governments and standing armies to stabilize Lebanon and threaten the Israeli border. Last update on October 28th, 2064, has Syria and Israel engaged in a "quiet border war".

Past this point, the only information I could find in fourth edition books are:
- Relations between the Arabian Caliphate and Israel are "frosty at best." Israel and Arabia still don't have official diplomatic ties, and the ahrdliner in Riyadh like it that way. But a company called Olive Holding in Dubaï serve as an unofficial channel. Corporate Enclaves, page 115.
- Evo oil and natural gas operations in the Middle East (at large, no mention of a precise country) are lucrative, "at the constant expense of dealing with saboeurs, local warlords, eco-terrorists, dangerous fauna, and the occasional sandstorm." Corporate Guide, page 87.
- Lebanon as an Israeli holding on Sixth World Almanac map.

I do not see any hints of the "quiet border war" becoming more intense, or the Syrian government falling. But there is no indication that Syria has not become a failed state either, if youn really want to.

SOTA:2064, page 27, describes Beirut as "still the primary Arab shipping port into the Middle East, so none of the Big Ten or even the Eurocorps are going to close up shop soon." The canon is, Beirut was Mediterranean port of choice for megacorporations in the Middle East by 2064, not Ashdod, Haida or Tel-Aviv. If the port is intact and the megacorporation can use an Israeli-controlled seaport, there is no reason to change. If the port was damaged, it would probably still be cheaper to repair it than upgrade an Israeli port. If the port was damaged by Israeli forces, then maybe the Israeli government would have to hand Ashdod and their next one hundred newborns and beg for pardon. If the port was heavily damaged by Syria or the New Islamic Jihad, then maybe the megacorporations would consider moving to an Israeli port.

[Sengir]

This is manifestly, provably untrue. They prefer *weak* states, not *failed* ones, at least in Shadowrun. A failed state is one wherein the only kind of interaction a AAA can have with its populace is to kill them and take their stuff.

Uh yes, I forgot that it's totally impossible to buy stuff without a working government. Just look at the folks in Somalia, they don't have anything like modern weapons or GPS, and their backers only use the ransom dollars to stuff their mattresses because without a working govt they can't buy women, fancy cars, or other bling-bling.

rather than dealing with larger governments like the UCAS.

The UCAS is a functioning state? What does it do again? Monopoly on use of force lies with the corporate court, the UCAS couldn't even take back a single city without help from Ares. Policies are dictated by foreign powers (the AAAs). All major economy happens on corporate soil. The only thing the government does is collecting bills for the private providers of justice, domestic tranquility, common defence, and the general welfare.

[Adarael]

Uh yes, I forgot that it's totally impossible to buy stuff without a working government. Just look at the folks in Somalia, they don't have anything like modern weapons or GPS, and their backers only use the ransom dollars to stuff their mattresses because without a working govt they can't buy women, fancy cars, or other bling-bling.


The UCAS is a functioning state? What does it do again? Monopoly on use of force lies with the corporate court, the UCAS couldn't even take back a single city without help from Ares. Policies are dictated by foreign powers (the AAAs). All major economy happens on corporate soil. The only thing the government does is collecting bills for the private providers of justice, domestic tranquility, common defence, and the general welfare.

The UCAS is rife with single A and AA corporations that do not have extraterritoriality, and their taxes fund the UCAS. Given that the UCAS provides "justice, dometic tranqulity, common defense and general welfare", then YES, they are a functioning state. If you cannot tell the difference between the UCAS as it is presented in Shadowrun, and SOMALIA, well, there is nothing to be said here.

If you think that Somalia is able to engage in major international trade in any meaningful fashion *as a nation*... or has a currency that is used by anyone, including its own people... or that their weapons have been legally purchased rather than captured from Ethopian army forces... then you are living in a different world than mine. This is not an argument worth continuing, because you are operating from certain perspectives that have little to no basis in actual economics or politics. Somalia survives because of private actors, not anything resembling a nation. And those private actors are all at war with each other. Mogadishu is ruled by gangs, and their battle lines shift *daily*. That is manifestly different than "The UCAS is a puppet of the corporate court."

We cannot continue this conversation, because it will go nowhere. My point stands: If the Corporate Court preferred states like Somalia, all of the nations of the world would look like Somalia. They cannot be all-powerful AND prefer Z Zone style lawlessness, while we have Shadowrun as it stands in canon.

[Sengir]

Somalia also does not have "bling" or fancy cars

So you indeed believe that Somali pirates stuff their mattresses with the dollars they have "earned"? In this case you are right, this discussion won't lead anywhere.

As long as there is a buyer and a seller, commerce takes place. It doesn't matter whether it happens on the NYSE floor, on a cattle market in Bumfuck TX, or on a weapons bazaar somewhere in Somalia.

And a government is not necessary for maintaining order, either. That's one of the basic motifs of Shadowrun, law enforcement is done by private companies.

[mfb]

So you indeed believe that Somali pirates stuff their mattresses with the dollars they have "earned"? In this case you are right, this discussion won't lead anywhere.

As long as there is a buyer and a seller, commerce takes place. It doesn't matter whether it happens on the NYSE floor, on a cattle market in Bumfuck TX, or on a weapons bazaar somewhere in Somalia.

And a government is not necessary for maintaining order, either. That's one of the basic motifs of Shadowrun, law enforcement is done by private companies.

That's really stretching the point. For one thing, most of the money Somali pirates make doesn't go to Somali pirates--it goes to outside investors, generally Somali expats. For another, Somali piracy destroys far more wealth than it creates. When Somali pirates (and those who fund Somali pirates) spend money, the most that can be said is that the economy is recouping some of its loss. Follow the money: a Somali pirate crew collects a ransom of $1 million. They spend it all, injecting $1 million into the economy. But where did that money come from? It came from holding a shipful of expensive crap hostage. The shipping delay--several months, in most cases--cost the company that owns the crap on the ship, plus the company that owns the ship, millions or hundreds of millions of dollars. So from a potential value of hundreds of millons, Somali pirates eventually feed one million into the economy. Yes, someone is going to be there to sell things to the Somalis, but overall everyone is going to be making less money; the companies hurt by that act of piracy have a hundred million less bucks to spend, so the companies who trade with those companies are short a hundred million in income, and the companies who trade with the companies who trade with the pirated companies are also short, yea unto the tenth generation.

Piracy as an industry is a few measly hundred million per month; in 2010, Goldman Sachs made that much per day. No megacorp is going to view an industry comparable to Somali piracy, or an area comparable to Somalia, as a wise place to invest. Sure, there will be guys there cutting deals, and a lot of them will be affiliated with a megacorp, but they're not going to be anything resembling a serious moneymaker. A serious moneymaker--hundreds of millions per day--requires an organized society. It requires a government. The megacorps are happy to provide services for that government, and in limited cases are happy to be the government (eg, sararimen living in a corporate arcology are effectivly living under the governance of the corporation), but for the most part, megacorps would rather leave the messy business of governance to governments. An organized society is a continual source of money; a failed state is a monetary black hole.

I mean, really--law enforcement in SR is performed by private companies to a large degree, sure. But who do you think pays those companies to enforce the law? If you take government out of the picture, then law enforcement companies effectively become neighborhood protection rackets. They have to extract their fees from each household and/or person individually. Same goes for garbage removal, water and power, street cleaning, and so on--they have to negotiate individually, rather than scamming a single government into paying the fees from taxes.

But on the original topic, it's always greatly irked me that the jihads had enough juice to hand Europe its lunch, but left Israel alone. I mean what the hell. Don't get me wrong, I'm an Israel fanboy the way some people are Japanophiles. But it's a simple logical failure: Israel, for all its badassitude, is not badass enough to seriously threaten all of Europe. The jihad was, which means that Israel should've been curbstomped--the whole ideological basis for tension between the Middle East and the West is the existence of Israel.

[LurkerOutThere]

Bad MFB, thread necromancy.

I really wish they'd just had Israel fall during the second islamic jihad and replaced all of the middle eastern sates with new political entities from whole cloth ala North America. It helps people seperate their real life fiction from their sixth world fiction. Instead we have Adarael maintaining that Israel would totally blow up the ZO if they were ever messed with because their just that bad ass. He's valid to believe that, after all as folks pointed out Israel magicly weathered the NIJ without a scratch, but I still can't imagine Israel surviving without the backing of the US and the UK, my mind just rebels against the sheer math of it.

[Adarael]

MFB, I think, has earned the right to thread necro wherever and whenever he wants. If for no other reason than for the one-time ShadowRN block IP ban of all Korean IPs. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

As a clarification, I never said that Israel would "totally blow up ZO". What I said was that they would make use of their nuclear arsenal if their nation was threatened militarily by anyone who made the ultimatum of "Do what we say or we destroy you."

I don't think that's too insane of an extrapolation, given that this is their current (unstated but alluded to) policy for dealing with such threats.

As for the Eurowars not making sense, well. That's another kettle of fish, much like "Aztlan takes San Diego without a fight" and "Oregon defeats California without suffering significant losses."

[Laughing One]

Israel got the backing of Ares and FBA, which was under the rule of the great dragon Nachtmeister during that time. And unlike Europe which was divided, caught by surprise, after round I against the Russians and crippled by the nightwraith strikes, Israel was untouched, ready and able. Thats big factors in a war.