Aliens in shadowrun. Options

[hermit]

Some recent findings show that making a vehicle capable of FTL may be a lot easier than initially suspected, requiring far smaller amount of energy.

So ... not much more than infinite amounts, only a little more? What findings do you refer to?

Quantum entanglement is a real thing, and just because we havn't found a way to reliably transfer data with it, doesn't mean that its impossible.

Whether it is an artifact in measurement or real is still up for debate. And if it can reliably pass on information quantum dynamics has some serious errors, which isn't hinted at anywhwere else. Not saying it's impossible, but it's not very probable..

Interdimensional travelers might be more interesting...possibly from an alternate earth where the horrors won the last cycle.

Or other worlds. Unlike conventional Space Opera space travel, that would make perfect sense in the world of Shadowrun. Or a webway/stargate kind of thing.

Except that by the time you build a ship big enough to move a number of people large enough to have a noticeable impact on your overpopulation problem, you've built a ship big enough to be self-sustaining more or less indefinitely.

Not to mention wasted immense amounts of your scarce ressources on the possibility that this ship can somehow drag back more than it cost to build in ressources.

[ZeroPoint]

Drake's Equation depends on three constants that are actually arbitrarily predicted variables which may be significantly off, skewing the whole "equation" radically. It's essentially a hope and a dream that was published by a scientist.

Only if you use the constants they give you. Break it down and use your own constants according to your own judgement. You still have a very high probability of something being out there.

There are billions superclusters, full of galaxies, each galaxy with billions and billions of stars. And with over 300 exoplanets now discovered all very close to us, many of the initial numbers from the drake's equation are looking pretty conservative.

[Neraph]

Except that by the time you build a ship big enough to move a number of people large enough to have a noticeable impact on your overpopulation problem, you've built a ship big enough to be self-sustaining more or less indefinitely. Why fight somebody else for their planet when you can tour the universe instead? The same applies to resources: any ship large enough to carry a significant amount will be more expensive than the stuff it carries. This is a primary symptom of sci-fi writers having no sense of scale.

Public Service Announcement: TVTropes will ruin your life. Hey, at least they're honest about it.

Next time put the PSA before the link. Almost caught me there.

[ZeroPoint]

So ... not much more than infinite amounts, only a little more? What findings do you refer to?

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/136408-...s-are-plausible

[Neraph]

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/136408-...s-are-plausible

Right, but wasn't there a warning that it might be a spectacular firework?

[hermit]

Ah, that. It's not really new, and the design has other flaws, like this.
Edit: ninja'd.

[ZeroPoint]

Except that by the time you build a ship big enough to move a number of people large enough to have a noticeable impact on your overpopulation problem, you've built a ship big enough to be self-sustaining more or less indefinitely. Why fight somebody else for their planet when you can tour the universe instead? The same applies to resources: any ship large enough to carry a significant amount will be more expensive than the stuff it carries. This is a primary symptom of sci-fi writers having no sense of scale.

Public Service Announcement: TVTropes will ruin your life. Hey, at least they're honest about it.

Because living in a giant tin can isn't very comfortable. Said giant ship is probably pretty cramped out of necessity. And probably, such ships have most of its inhabitants in cryostasis in order to maximize transported population density.

And when i talk about resources, i'm not talking about them coming to earth and digging up our iron and stuff and shipping it back home. If thats all they wanted, they would just go planet cracking nearby unihabited planets.

When i say resources, i mean the land. livable land. With breathable atmosphere and relatively stable climate. Also, there's plenty of meat to go around. 5 billion humans worth of meat.

[ZeroPoint]

Right, but wasn't there a warning that it might be a spectacular firework?

Of which i'm aware, but it still proves the point. The fact is, its not ruled out as pure science fiction yet.

[Tanegar]

Because living in a giant tin can isn't very comfortable. Said giant ship is probably pretty cramped out of necessity. And probably, such ships have most of its inhabitants in cryostasis in order to maximize transported population density.

And when i talk about resources, i'm not talking about them coming to earth and digging up our iron and stuff and shipping it back home. If thats all they wanted, they would just go planet cracking nearby unihabited planets.

When i say resources, i mean the land. livable land. With breathable atmosphere and relatively stable climate. Also, there's plenty of meat to go around. 5 billion humans worth of meat.

Actually a little over seven billion humans... who are armed with, among other sundry unpleasantness, several thousand fusion warheads. The odds of being able to conquer a Nuclear-Age planet without seeing said planet turned into a radioactive cinder are pretty low.

[almost normal]

Only if you use the constants they give you. Break it down and use your own constants according to your own judgement. You still have a very high probability of something being out there.

Uhh, no?

The odds of a single cell of life being brought about by random chance is greater then the sum of all the atoms in the universe to one. It's why when some scientists talk about abiogenesis, their leading theory is life came to us from somewhere else, where conditions are unlike anything they can even hypothesize about.

Those branches of 'science' tend to be more about make-believe though, so I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

[ShadowDragon8685]

Tanegar: Ironically, they might have a better chance of doing exactly that in Shadowrun, with its bullshit plot override on nukes, than in actuality.



But yeah. Humans would totally rather frag our own planet all to hell than let some alien assholes conquer our shit and take it from us. Cue the grey goo, the blood magic, the Horrors, etcetera.

[Irion]

Actually a little over seven billion humans... who are armed with, among other sundry unpleasantness, several thousand fusion warheads. The odds of being able to conquer a Nuclear-Age planet without seeing said planet turned into a radioactive cinder are pretty low.

That would be a fight like a navi of the 16. century against a modern hunter submarine or destroyer...

It not so much the firepower... It is the precision, the sensors and all the stuff around...

Before we probably even know that they are here, they may have infiltratet every nuklear silo/system on the planet or at least tagged it.

And if they strike (probably USA->Russia->China+Europe) the US Military gets wind of the attack after the aliens finished the EU. Europe gets the heads up from the alien invadors.
Like: "You lost!"
"WTF there was a war?"

[hermit]

When i say resources, i mean the land. livable land. With breathable atmosphere and relatively stable climate. Also, there's plenty of meat to go around. 5 billion humans worth of meat.

Who make a tiny fraction of the planetary biomass. However, what would that alien race gain from wasting half THEIR limited ressources on some Lebensraum project that will have to fight tooth and claw against the creatures already living where they want to live? And why do you assume they could even live here? Not even Earth's own inhabitants can live everywhere on the planet (in fact, we, it's technical civilisation, mostly contend outselves with 30% of it). Maybe they need a different environment? Or some ubiquous substance in most of earth's organisms is toxic to them? Colonising foreign planets is fairly nonsensical, and even if you do, you shoukld stick to planets where you can, if need be, send more supplies or communicate effectively with.

That would be a fight like a navi of the 16. century against a modern hunter submarine or destroyer...

Why? You again assume these aliens to be carbon copies or Western human civilisation. Not even all human civilisations pushed science mainly for weaponisation. That's a speciality of our civilisation; most others studied for theological reasons, for the fun of it or to improve engineering and infrastructure. Or because it's colourful and makes bang, like China used blackpowder for almost 1000 years. Weaponisation there was an afterthought.

[ZeroPoint]

Uhh, no?

The odds of a single cell of life being brought about by random chance is greater then the sum of all the atoms in the universe to one. It's why when some scientists talk about abiogenesis, their leading theory is life came to us from somewhere else, where conditions are unlike anything they can even hypothesize about.

Those branches of 'science' tend to be more about make-believe though, so I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

The chance of life developing is up for debate, so your assertion is your own opinion, not fact. Unfortunately, everything regarding this subject is speculative, so there is no way to rule definitively one way or the other. It can be argued, that any earthlike planet will eventually develop simple life, of which, maybe 2/3 of those planets will develop into complex life. It go the other way that the chances of life developing are incredibly small...the Rare Earth concept.

I think the rare earth concept is just as conceited as the idea that the sun and other planets revolve around the earth and we're the center of the universe.

The main fact is all we have is a single data point. Us. With only one data point we can't know for sure what the chances of life developing on another planet would be. As such, all we can do is make assumptions given the information that we do have.

[hermit]

It can be argued, that any earthlike planet will eventually develop simple life, of which, maybe 2/3 of those planets will develop into complex life.

Where do you take these odds from? Of the three 'habitable' Earth-like planets in our solar system, one developed life.

And even if life is so abundant, human-equivalent civilisatons hardly will be.

[Lionhearted]

Our definition of life is rather narrow aswell, it make certain assumptions that only apply to things given the same conditions as we have.
and in it's most basic form life is chemistry... which is not governed by chance.

[Halinn]

and in it's most basic form life is chemistry... which is not governed by chance.

You'd be surprised.

[Sengir]

Ever hear of drake's equation? not really an impossibility at all. In fact, its more of a probability.

Drake's equation says nothing more than that the probability of alien life depends on several other (unknown) probabilities. Possibly the most overhyped "discovery" ever.

Quantum entanglement is a real thing, and just because we havn't found a way to reliably transfer data with it, doesn't mean that its impossible.

Entanglement exists, but it does not have any special properties which would make FTL communications more likely...

On the subject of psionics, obviously magic is not psionics

That's like saying shamanism is not magic. The rules of the SR universe are extremely clear with regard to psionics (and shamans): They are awakened, end of discussion.

[almost normal]

The chance of life developing is up for debate, so your assertion is your own opinion, not fact.

No, it's the theory of scientists who hold a very different idea of how life originated then I do, so you're wrong on both counts.

It can be argued, that any earthlike planet will eventually develop simple life,

You really display a lack of understanding on just how complex life is.

of which, maybe 2/3 of those planets will develop into complex life.

Given that we can't create entirely new forms of life (Not attempting to replicate existing life nor using parts of living things) in a laboratory with controlled environments and guided actions, your assertion that life can just happen is in error.

The main fact is all we have is a single data point. Us. With only one data point we can't know for sure what the chances of life developing on another planet would be. As such, all we can do is make assumptions given the information that we do have.

If we can't create life under the most ideal of circumstances, we can make a pretty good guess that it's going to have a harder time developing under less-then-ideal circumstances, or broken down, since we're at zero, there's a less then zero chance it happened somewhere else.

[Lionhearted]

Alien life might not even be considered life under our definition, we can't know the likeliness as we don't know what other possible configurations that can create viable life, afterall Virae is not considered lifeforms.

[Irion]

Why? You again assume these aliens to be carbon copies or Western human civilisation. Not even all human civilisations pushed science mainly for weaponisation. That's a speciality of our civilisation; most others studied for theological reasons, for the fun of it or to improve engineering and infrastructure. Or because it's colourful and makes bang, like China used blackpowder for almost 1000 years. Weaponisation there was an afterthought.

First, I agree with you that they would probably not need any of our resources. I mean mining in low gravity enivronments ought to be much better anyway. Asteroids etc.

The point is the interstellar travel thing. Thats far beyond our scope.

Even if the aliens would not research military technology at all, they would need less than a year to get the technology that far. Probably they could cook something up on the flight...

An interstellar civilsation is probably as far away from our level of technology as we are from the ancient time.
Just to get an image. The mars is the most distant point we could send somebody up. That means at most 20 light min. (Min. 3 light min)
The next solar system (alpha centauri) is 4.34 light years away.

Thats like comparing walking one meter to going from Paris to New York.

[hermit]

Alien life might not even be considered life under our definition, we can't know the likeliness as we don't know what other possible configurations that can create viable life, afterall Virae is not considered lifeforms.

Because they do not replicate of their own. They're more like naturally occurring, predatory nanomachines.

Our definition of life basically is "something that builds structures of a highter order that require energy to maintain, and can replicate itself in some way from itself". If alien life doesn't fall in that definition, it is not life, because life, as such, is a definition that is human-made, not a universal constant of mystical properties as you seem to think.

The point is the interstellar travel thing. Thats far beyond our scope.

ven if the aliens would not research military technology at all, they would need less than a year to get the technology that far. Probably they could cook something up on the flight...

And why should they spend their flight cooking up weapons? Besides, who says they can even survive in Earth's atmosphere, or are well adapted for it's gravity.

And if they have any meaningful weaponry at all, or care to have. Sure, they cna reverse-engineer earth weapons if they find out their preferred weapons are not up to speed, but if they first get hit by a few nuclear weapons, all their supertechnology will not save them.

An interstellar civilsation is probably as far away from our level of technology as we are from the ancient time.

... and if the ancient warriors fight intelligently and learn from observation, they'd give a modern army a hell of a fight. The Brits in Afghanistan, America in the Phillipines, Vietnam, Afghanistan (again).

Just to get an image. The mars is the most distant point we could send somebody up. That means at most 20 light min. (Min. 3 light min)
The next solar system (alpha centauri) is 4.34 light years away.

Where does that come from? Not that I disagree on principle, but so far, the most distant point we "sent someone up" is the moon. Mars is probable, yes. Venus too, and we could sure send someone to the outer planets if we were so incluned and wouldn't expect them to return.

And mostly, that means interstellar civilisations are very unlikely to exist at all.

[Lionhearted]

It obviously wouldn't be life, but what would you call it?

[Sengir]

If we can't create life under the most ideal of circumstances, we can make a pretty good guess that it's going to have a harder time developing under less-then-ideal circumstances, or broken down, since we're at zero, there's a less then zero chance it happened somewhere else.

You are confusing observed results and probabilities. I know nobody who has won the lottery, what does that say about the chances of winning? Well, certainly not that the probability is zero. There is a high probability that the probability is small, but maybe we are all just unlucky...

[ZeroPoint]

Who make a tiny fraction of the planetary biomass. However, what would that alien race gain from wasting half THEIR limited ressources on some Lebensraum project that will have to fight tooth and claw against the creatures already living where they want to live? And why do you assume they could even live here? Not even Earth's own inhabitants can live everywhere on the planet (in fact, we, it's technical civilisation, mostly contend outselves with 30% of it). Maybe they need a different environment? Or some ubiquous substance in most of earth's organisms is toxic to them? Colonising foreign planets is fairly nonsensical, and even if you do, you shoukld stick to planets where you can, if need be, send more supplies or communicate effectively with.

We don't know, but considering that we are made primarily of the 4 most abundant elements in the universe (5 minus helium since its inert and doesn't react chemically), there's a good chance that other life will at least be carbon based (ie organic) and will be able to metabolise at least some earth food. Aliens that function with a completely different processes such that they would be incompatable with life on earth is unlikely.

Something to remember is that while we may only use live on 30% of of our globe, water takes up a lot of space, and where there arn't cities, and other dwellings, there is lots and lots of farmland. we are starting to run low on workable, non-protected land for agricultural production. As population increases, and dwellings take more space, we get LESS land for food production. Which means less food for that rising population. They will have to expand. Either that or continually destroy themselves with bloody wars. And sending them off to try to colonize an inhabited planet solves that problem both ways.

Assuming this race first expands to its own solar system, colonizing the other, likely dead planets, and breaking others open for their mineral rich cores, they will have an abundance of material for large vessels. Their first targets are likely going to be simple colonizations to near exoplanets that are hopefully uninhabited. Planetary vessels like this would probably be one use, one way trips. Once it reaches destination, it goes into orbit and colonization on the new planet begins, as they scavenge everything they can from the planetary vessel. Once this is done a few times, and they perfect their method of planetary travel, if they found a relatively close goldilocks planet like the earth and even though its inhabited, it could be a tempting target if they are sufficiently advanced. Which brings me to my next point.

Why? You again assume these aliens to be carbon copies or Western human civilisation. Not even all human civilisations pushed science mainly for weaponisation. That's a speciality of our civilisation; most others studied for theological reasons, for the fun of it or to improve engineering and infrastructure. Or because it's colourful and makes bang, like China used blackpowder for almost 1000 years. Weaponisation there was an afterthought.

Because we're talking on the concept of such a race attempting to invade earth. Such a suffeciently advnaced race isn't going to apply their great intellect to trying to take earth by force using less advanced weaponry. They're going to apply their current technology level to their weapons. The idea of an advanced spacefaring race using gunpowder based firearms or something else you might find as modern day weaponry...is just absurd. Their main weapons are going to be their logistics, computer controlled weapons, and devestating firepower. In the words of Sun Tsu, you don't start a fight unless you know you will win. As Irion said, they'll make sure they know everything about us, strike hard, fast and cripple our ability to strike back with decisive force.

There will be no X-com (as fun as that is), it would be a complete one sided victory on their part.