Shadow Math-Top Line Shotguns Vs ARs Options

[Slide]

We will assume that the shooter has 5 agility, 5 skill with an implanted smart link for a total of 12 dice on either the shotgun or automatics roll. We will also work under the assumption that the shooter has 5 points of recoil.

We will assume the defender has 5 reaction and 4 intuition for 9 on the dodge pool. Also the defender is wearing a lined coat for 9 armor and a body of 4.

Lets look at the AR first (Ares Alpha). We will be using average rolls rounded to the nearest integer. so all attacks will generate 4 hits.

Damage is 11 -2 ap so would be staged up to 15

In Semi auto the defender would score 3 hits. Damage is staged down to 12

In Burst fire the defender would roll 7 dice and score 2 hits. Damage is staged down to 13

In Full Auto "Long burst" the defender would roll 4 dice and score 1 hit. Damage is staged down to13

In Full Auto the defender would roll 0 Dice, However the attacker's dice pool is reduced to 8 for an average of 3 hits. Damage is staged up to 14

The Ares Alpha has armor pen of -2 so rolling 7 armor and 4 body the defender would achieve an average of 4 hits. Staging the listed damages down by 4

Now lets look at the shotgun (Enfield). Base damage of 13 (with slugs) -1 ap that would be staged up to 17

In Semi auto the defender would score 3 hits. Damage is staged down to 14

In Burst fire the defender would roll 7 dice and score 2 hits. Damage is staged down to 15

There are currently no shotguns in SR5 with Full Auto.

The Enfield has armor pen of -1 so rolling 8 armor and 4 body the defender would achieve an average of 4 hits. Staging the listed damages down by 4

Finally we will look at the shotgun with buckshot. Damage is 15 (buckshot narrow spread -1 dodge) with ap +5 and is staged up to 19.

In Semi auto the defender would roll 8 dice score 3 hits. Damage is staged down to 16

In Burst fire the defender would roll 6 dice and score 2 hits. Damage is staged down to 17

For medium spread at short ranges Damage is 14 (buckshot medium spread -3 dodge) and is staged up to 18.

In Semi auto the defender would roll 6 dice score 2 hits. Damage is staged down to 16

In Burst fire the defender would roll 4 dice and score 1 hits. Damage is staged down to 17

note at close range medium spread the average damage is the same as narrow spread. However you can target 2 defenders

The Enfield w/ buckshot has armor pen of +4 (rules check? With my rounding 17vs18 dice won't matter but it would be nice to know) so rolling 13 armor and 4 body the defender would achieve an average of 6 hits. Staging the listed damages down by 6.



In Conclusion after all dodge/armor modifiers:
Ares Alpha does 8 DV in Semi Auto 9 in a burst and 10 for full auto
Enfield does 10 DV Semi Auto, and 11 in burstfire with slugs
Enfield does 10 DV Semi auto, and 11 in burst fire with Shot in close range narrow or medium spread.
Edit: after the staged up in armor the buck shot would be dealing non-lethal damage to this target.
Looking at the numbers wide spread does nothing to help you.


These are based on average rolls and your personal results may vary. I do not account for any "Special ammo" for the ARs or Shot guns. APDS or explosive ammo would increase the ending DV as well as increasing the ranges beyond short but you can do the math yourself. I hope this has been an informative post.

[Remnar]

Neat, so buckshot is useful again? I like the sound of that.

Also, pretty colors, I was having Diablo II flashbacks for a while there.

[Slide]

I would also like to note even if in full auto the attacker had 9 recoil the damage would be upped to 11 DV after mods. The same as the Enfield burst. so you are looking at a complex vs. a simple action.

[Abstruse]

Neat, so buckshot is useful again? I like the sound of that.

Also, pretty colors, I was having Diablo II flashbacks for a while there.

Yes, but you have to keep in mind that you have to get through the armor for it to be physical damage rather than stun, and buckshot gives I believe +3 AP to the attacker.

Also note that this didn't take into consideration the Limits of the two characters, but it wouldn't have matter since the lowest possible limit (Accuracy 4 on the Enfield, boosted to 6 by the smartlink) wasn't hit by any of the rolls. But it is something to keep in mind when making a character for actual play rather than a thought experiment.

Personally, I'd love to see a mathematical breakdown of what Limits actually do to the curve on rolls.

[Slide]

the break down in the limits between the two guns is 1. I'll excel out what limits do to the curve, but.... you would need 3x the limit in dice to be hitting it more than half the time. so with a limit of six if you had +18 dice it would behoove you to take called shots, run and gun, and do backflips to get the most benefit out of your high dice pool.

My math took into consideration the +5 AP from the buckshot. so this data is pretty accurate for dealing with the armored targets. If the target is unarmored well... Both are death, but the shotty is extra death.

[Slide]

I also edited the data to reflect what you pointed out with non-lethal.

[Ryu]

Next level: Discard using averages for hitting.

For your chosen combatants (good baseline IMO) reducing defender dice is great, as 9 dice have a 35% chance of generating 4+ hits. Burst Fire (7 dice left) reduces that to about 1/2 (17.3%).

Add that 12 dice have a 39.3% chance of generating less than 4 hits and defender odds start looking up. So one needs to actually calculate the odds of hitting.

[Umidori]

I'm glad shotguns are noticeably useful now. They were useful in SR4 too, but they had more "Hidden Power", so to speak.

~Umi

[Ryu]

Some time spend using Calc yielded some data that might help (warning: glitches ignored):

Attacker DP 12, Defender DP 9
Hit (total) 59,01%

• 1 Net 18,30%
• 2 Net 16,43%
• 3 Net 11,99%
• 4 Net 7,10%
• 5+ Net 5,19%

Attackeer DP 12, Defender DP 7
Hit (total) 70,95%

• 1 Net 18,06%
• 2 Net 18,87%
• 3 Net 15,50%
• 4 Net 10,15%
• 5+ Net 8,37%

[Mäx]

The Enfield w/ buckshot has armor pen of +4 (rules check? With my rounding 17vs18 dice won't matter but it would be nice to know)

All the shotguns do, base AP of -1+5=4
So nice that they finally got those correct in the book(something they failed to do for the whole of SR4)

[Slide]

http://forums.dumpshock.com/index.php?showtopic=39270

This is my first draft of a probablity calculator. I will be updating this thread latter.