Awakened Percent of the Population, Just how many people, on average? Options

[JanessaVR]

This thread here over at The Other Forums got me thinking on this.

As per SR4 Street Magic, p. 22: “First, the Awakened comprise the smallest minority of the world’s population. Less than one percent of the Sixth World’s populace even has the potential to use magic. Of that one percent, only a fraction has the training, focus, or discipline to use it effectively; the rest either go mad trying or spend their entire lives ignorant of the power at their fingertips.”

All-in-all, that means magic-users are still fairly rare in the Sixth World. So, here are my proposed numbers:

Out of 1 million people:

1% is 10,000 people.

6,500 are either untrained (and not likely to get that training) or just don’t have the disposition to wield magic
1,000 are Sorcery-Aspected Magicians
1,000 are Conjuring-Aspected Magicians
1,000 are Adepts
400 are Enchanting-Aspected Magicians
100 are Full Magicians

So, if you’re a Full Magician, you are literally 1 in 10,000.

Your thoughts?

[Medicineman]

It has been Canon ( as far as I remember since the Beginning of playing Shadowrun at the end of second Edition)
that roughly 1/2 of the awakened are Adepts and the other 1/2 is mages of all Traditions.
Now in SR5 it is Canon that from all Mages 90 % are Aspected Mages and only 10 % are Full mages
Everything else is only speculation and different from table to table
like the % of Mystic Adepts to Adepts, the Part of untrained Mages , those that are too Young or to Old.
I wold guessimate that more than 1/2 of the able Mages & Adepts are working for/in Megacorps,
another (but smaller , maybe 1/3 ) Part is working for the Gouvernment ( Secret Service, Police, Military, but also Firefighters and the dreaded Tax Revenue ?)
still a smaller % works for organised Crime and the Filthy Rich (maybe around 5-10 % ? )
and just a tiny Proportion ( something between 2 - 5 % maybe) is freelancer ( either with a legitimate Business or Shadowrunner)

Oh, and the ratio of awakened is slowly raising.
Even though the Global % is still only 1 ,some Countries (like Atzlan , Amazonia or the Tirs ) have 2-3 % awakened and some Countries (
I guess in Afrika ? ) must have less than 1 %

HokaHey
Medicineman

Looks down to Lokii's Post (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)
You're welcome

[lokii]

Please.

and some Countries (
I guess in Afrika ? )

Looks up: Thanks. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

[Wakshaani]

Yeah, about 1% have any talent. 9 out 10 of those either have so little it doesn't matter (Once a month, when no one's looking, a curtain rustles gently. That's me!) or have it lying fallow/never trained in it, or were driven crazy by it, so, only ten percent of the 1% have enough Talent to count.

So, one in a thousand.

SO, out of a million people, you get a thousand with enough Talent to do anything.
10% of those are True Mages, the rest are aspected in some way.

Which leaves 100 full mages per million people and 900 adepts, be they physical, conjuring, or what have you.

Now, mages tend to congregate into groups, since they get more power with Initiation groups, can buy and sell magical supplies, and so on, so the rare mage with oomph born in Armpit, Wyoming is going to move to the big city for training, plus corporations tend to move people around as they see the need.

So, while technically there are only about 300 full mages in Seattle due to population, the actual number is probably double, or even triple, that.

Ain't a lot of magic to go around.

On a relate dnote, we should really see *far* more adepts than we do. Hmm...

[JanessaVR]

I appreciate the feedback here. I'll post some newer numbers later this weekend.

[lokii]

On a relate dnote, we should really see *far* more adepts than we do. Hmm...

Maybe Catalyst should sponsor a public advocacy campaign to get designated adepts into every Shadowrun roleplaying group.

[Wakshaani]

Maybe Catalyst should sponsor a public advocacy campaign to get designated adepts into every Shadowrun roleplaying group.

Pure magician is too cheap. That's my answer. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

[Sendaz]

Mysad is too good for the cost, why bother being plain adept when for just a bit more you get spell capacity at full Magic? (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nyahnyah.gif)
Granted the older editions making you buy up your effective Magic for spellcasting purposes was a bit steep, but it did rein them in a bit.

Right now Astral space is really underused on the large scale, all most use is the Astral Perception to spot things/assense, so the loss of Astral Projection for MysAd is not nearly the hurdle the designers thought it would be.

Plus if they really need projection, in a pinch they have the optional Limited Astral Projection power to buy, hitch a ride with a Spirit using the Astral Gateway power or even just take a hit of Shade.

[JanessaVR]

@ Medicineman:
Ok, I checked out the SR5 Core Rules, and it looks like that’s where the whole 90/10 split favoring Aspected magicians is coming from recently. Thanks for letting me know the source of that. I’m still running 4th, but the reason I bothered to pick up the 5th books was to nick bits that seemed interesting from them and splice them in via our House Rules. I think I actually like this general concept, though I’m not married to keeping those exact percentages intact.


Taking what you’ve told me and Wakshaani’s figures, here’s a Take 2:

Out of 1 million people:

1% is 10,000 people, but only 10% of those have any real, usable talent.

9,000 are either untrained (and not likely to get that training) or just don’t have the disposition to wield magic
250 are Sorcery-Aspected Magicians
250 are Conjuring-Aspected Magicians
250 are Adepts
140 are Enchanting-Aspected Magicians
100 are Full Magicians
10 are Mystic Adepts*

If you’re a Full Magician, you’re 1 in 10,000.
If you’re a Mystic Adept*, you’re 1 in 100,000.


* Note: To address the off-cited problem of “Mystic Adepts get too good a deal,” it’s in our House Rules that to be a Mystic Adept, you must purchase the Magician and Adept Qualities, both at full price. This heads off any "free lunch" arguments.

All in all, this does give us something of Wild Cards crossover feel. Lowest on the scale, you get nothing. A bit higher and you get some useful ability. And highest on the scale, you draw the Ace, and get the really cool toys. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

In the interest of fairness, there might need to be some further pricing adjustments to these Qualities; abilities higher on the scale should cost a bit more.

[Nath]

The original data was featured in Awakenings. As far as I understand, much derive from how people understood what it read.

Awakenings - New Magic in 2057, page 9 (Shadowru 2nd Edition)
How many magicians are there?
Magicians are fairly rare. Statistics show that about one person in a hundred has enough talent to make active use of magic. Of those individuals, only about one in ten are fully capable magicians, while the others are adepts or untrained individuals. Approximately three to four million fully capable magicians exist today, and studies show their number if rising each year.

Note it was assumed at the time the world population would be in the 3-4 billion range (more recent books used a 7 billion figure).

Remember in 1st, 2nd and 3rd edition, magicians started with a Magic attribute at 6, lowered if they had Essence loss. So looking at the attribute would have been meaningless to call one "untrained". But the skills and the number of spells known would. On the other hand, a lot of people did not understood "fully capable" as "adequately trained" but as "full magician, capable of enchanting, spellcasting and summoning all categories of spells and spirits", leading to the interpretation that nine-in-ten were either adepts or aspected mages or untrained full magicians.

[Tymeaus Jalynsfe...]

All in all, this does give us something of Wild Cards crossover feel. Lowest on the scale, you get nothing. A bit higher and you get some useful ability. And highest on the scale, you draw the Ace, and get the really cool toys. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

Not the most accurate description JanessaVR... IF you caught the Wild Card you were 90% likely to die outright (known as drawing the Black Queen), 9% became Jokers (Or Joker Deuces/Joker Aces), and the remaining 1% became Aces. 90% of Awakened do not die from the awakening. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

[JanessaVR]

Not the most accurate description JanessaVR... IF you caught the Wild Card you were 90% likely to die outright (known as drawing the Black Queen), 9% became Jokers (Or Joker Deuces/Joker Aces), and the remaining 1% became Aces. 90% of Awakened do not die from the awakening. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

I know, I've read the first few books. But still, close enough for comparison.

[Blade]

When talking about the number of awakened, I like to compare it with the number of doctors. As a percentage of the world population, there aren't many doctors. Even in the US, it's about 0,26% of the population. Still, it doesn't feel like doctors are that rare.

[Wakshaani]

Had to go grab official data which is, conveniently, listed as the rate per 1000 people, so anything at 0.1 would be "Equal to full magicians" while anything at 1 would be "Equal to the effectively awakened."

Let's see what happens!

Legislators 0.405
Aeorspace Engineers and Operations Technicians 0.093
Food scientist and technician 0.106
Physicis 0.114
Astronomer 0.013 (This is about how common Mystic Adpets are, for comparison!)
Psychologists (all types grouped) 0.863
Lawyers 4.42 (Much more common than magicians)
Physicians and Surgeons (grouped) 4.661 (Again, much higher than mages!)
Dentist 0.726
Podiatrists 0.069
Protheticists (IE, technicians who build artificial limbs) 0.051 (half as common as a full mage!)
Fire inspector 0.101
Bailiff 0.129
Motion picture projectionist 0.041 (Half as common as magicians)
Real Estate sales agents 1.1
Stonemason 0.096 (does NOT include brickmasons or blockmasons!)
Solar Voltaic Installers 0.05
Subway and streetcar operators 0.091

The whole list, if you wanna go through it yourself: http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm

So, *vastly* more rare than doctors or lawyers, but comparable to a few dedicated fields (like podiatrist) ... and this doesn't account for how good someone is. I mean, Homer Simpson is a nuclear technician after all. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) Meanwhile, people with enough magic power to count (adepts) are about on par with real estate agents, meaning that those than can astral project are about as common as subway drivers.

Fun with math and official employment data!

[Tymeaus Jalynsfe...]

So what you are saying is that if I know ~ 12 Doctors (I think it is a bit more, actually, including a half dozen various specialists) and ~ a Dozen or so Lawyers (Have at least that many in the family, if not more - so not counting any tangential relationships), and then ANY number of others on your List (Know a few Aerospace Engineers, a handful of phsyicists, about a doaen Dentists of various stripes, etc), I would know a whole lot of awakened characters and even a fair number of full mages. SO really, they are not all that rare in the long term. And since their numbers are increasing and have been since the Awakening, well... not as rare as you are making them out to be.

I mean really - Taking the Ratio of Full mages at 1/1000 that gives me something that looks like this:

Every 4.6 Doctors nets me a Full Magician Association (Between 3 and 4)
Every 4.4 Lawyers nets me a Full Magician Association (between 2 and 4)
Every .7 Dentists nets me another Full Magician Association (so about 8 full magicians)
I can keep going on and on...

If you simply assume standard awakened (1/100) instead of full Magicians, those numbers increase by an order of magnitude, so 30-40, 20-40, and about 80... And those numbers are for a very limited subset of your chart provided. Fact is, Awakened are far more prevalent than is assumed.

I find it interesting that the numbers are said to be rising, and then yet they stay the same. Can't have it both ways. In the past, Those who were counted as awakened were assumed to have Magic Ratings of 6 (1st-3rd Editions - if you did not have a Magic 6 you were considered hampered/broken) and anything less was not even considered. NOW, the range runs the gamut, and the numbers are the same. Sounds very fishy to me, to be honest. Yes, the awakened are supposed to be rare, 1 in 100 rare. But as has been shown, that really is not all that rare.

[lokii]

I don't think the comparison is that useful. Neither have all occupations the same level of contact with people nor is this contact independent of your socio-economic status. There will be a lot of people that know only few professionals with an academic degree but if you have a degree yourself you will likely know many.

So what you are saying is that if I know ~ 12 Doctors [..] and ~ a Dozen or so Lawyers [..], and then ANY number of others on your List [..], I would know a whole lot of awakened characters and even a fair number of full mages.

No, you can compare with one group from the list equivalent to either .1 or 1 (1 in 10,000 and 1 in 1,000 remember there is only 10% usable talent in the 1% awakened population). So if you take doctors, they are overrepresented by 4.6. Of 12 doctors you know 2.6 (12 / 4.6) would have a useful magical talent, .26 (12 / 46) so likely none would be a full magician.

I find it interesting that the numbers are said to be rising, and then yet they stay the same. Can't have it both ways.

Well, that's what you get with "shoot the mage first". (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

[Wakshaani]

So what you are saying is that if I know ~ 12 Doctors (I think it is a bit more, actually, including a half dozen various specialists) and ~ a Dozen or so Lawyers (Have at least that many in the family, if not more - so not counting any tangential relationships), and then ANY number of others on your List (Know a few Aerospace Engineers, a handful of phsyicists, about a doaen Dentists of various stripes, etc), I would know a whole lot of awakened characters and even a fair number of full mages. SO really, they are not all that rare in the long term. And since their numbers are increasing and have been since the Awakening, well... not as rare as you are making them out to be.

I mean really - Taking the Ratio of Full mages at 1/1000 that gives me something that looks like this:

Every 4.6 Doctors nets me a Full Magician Association (Between 3 and 4)
Every 4.4 Lawyers nets me a Full Magician Association (between 2 and 4)
Every .7 Dentists nets me another Full Magician Association (so about 8 full magicians)
I can keep going on and on...

You're off by a decimal. For every *46* doctors you know, you'd know a full mage, or for every 44 lawyers, and so on.

But, yeah, for every 5-doctors you know, you'd know an *aspected* magician. Conjurer, sorcerer, and so on.

If you simply assume standard awakened (1/100) instead of full Magicians, those numbers increase by an order of magnitude, so 30-40, 20-40, and about 80... And those numbers are for a very limited subset of your chart provided. Fact is, Awakened are far more prevalent than is assumed.

I find it interesting that the numbers are said to be rising, and then yet they stay the same. Can't have it both ways. In the past, Those who were counted as awakened were assumed to have Magic Ratings of 6 (1st-3rd Editions - if you did not have a Magic 6 you were considered hampered/broken) and anything less was not even considered. NOW, the range runs the gamut, and the numbers are the same. Sounds very fishy to me, to be honest. Yes, the awakened are supposed to be rare, 1 in 100 rare. But as has been shown, that really is not all that rare.

1 in a hundred has the potential for juice but don't, or won't, access it.
1 in a thousand has Talent at some level that they access.
1 in ten thousand is a full mage (woo, astral!).

I'm guessing most people don't know two score lawyers or doctors, but for those who travel in such rarified circles, yeah, you'd likely even known a true magician.

Most of us would know a friend of a friend, or have seen one, but not know anyone on that level. A goodly portion of us would know *somebody* that had The Talent, but in a limited form.

[JanessaVR]

Well, that's what you get with "shoot the mage first". (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

LOL! A compensating factor for more Awakened being born - more of them are getting shot! (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

[Tymeaus Jalynsfe...]

You're off by a decimal. For every *46* doctors you know, you'd know a full mage, or for every 44 lawyers, and so on.

But, yeah, for every 5-doctors you know, you'd know an *aspected* magician. Conjurer, sorcerer, and so on.

1 in a hundred has the potential for juice but don't, or won't, access it.
1 in a thousand has Talent at some level that they access.
1 in ten thousand is a full mage (woo, astral!).

I'm guessing most people don't know two score lawyers or doctors, but for those who travel in such rarified circles, yeah, you'd likely even known a true magician.

Most of us would know a friend of a friend, or have seen one, but not know anyone on that level. A goodly portion of us would know *somebody* that had The Talent, but in a limited form.

That is not what was said in the text though.

10% of that awakened are Full Magician (so 1 in 1,000 if the Awakened Ratio is 1 in 100), and the remaining 90% is a mishmash of craziness, some worthwhile and some not.
Everyone seems to agree on the 1% Awakened stat (Has been there since 1st Edition after all), but I cannot find your more divided percentages (1/1,000 and 1/10,000) that you are providing.

Or did I miss something somewhere? I am guessing I did, but cannot find the difference in the books. Can you point out where your statement is backed by Documentation? (Maybe I do not even have the relevant book, has been known to happen)

[JanessaVR]

That is not what was said in the text though.

10% of that awakened are Full Magician (so 1 in 1,000 if the Awakened Ratio is 1 in 100), and the remaining 90% is a mishmash of craziness, some worthwhile and some not.
Everyone seems to agree on the 1% Awakened stat (Has been there since 1st Edition after all), but I cannot find your more divided percentages (1/1,000 and 1/10,000) that you are providing.

Or did I miss something somewhere? I am guessing I did, but cannot find the difference in the books. Can you point out where your statement is backed by Documentation? (Maybe I do not even have the relevant book, has been known to happen)

If I'm reading this correctly - and I'm referencing both 4e and 5e sources here, so fair disclaimer in advance - then it's:

1% of the propulation are Awakened. Out of a million people, that's 10,000 people.

90% of those 10,000 are basically useless - their talent is weak, they just don't the mental knack to use it, they'll never get training, etc. So only 1,000 of these are actually useful with magic.

Out of those 1,000, 90% are Aspected Magicans or Adepts (900 people), and 10% are Full Magicians (100 people).

[Wakshaani]

That is not what was said in the text though.

10% of that awakened are Full Magician (so 1 in 1,000 if the Awakened Ratio is 1 in 100), and the remaining 90% is a mishmash of craziness, some worthwhile and some not.
Everyone seems to agree on the 1% Awakened stat (Has been there since 1st Edition after all), but I cannot find your more divided percentages (1/1,000 and 1/10,000) that you are providing.

Or did I miss something somewhere? I am guessing I did, but cannot find the difference in the books. Can you point out where your statement is backed by Documentation? (Maybe I do not even have the relevant book, has been known to happen)

Yup, you missed a step.

1% has any juice, but 90% of them are useless (make the color blue a lighter color of blue, driven mad with whispers, etc.)
That leaves 1 in a thousand as "Having magical power of note."

Of those, 90% are aspected, while 10% are full mages.

That leaves a full mage as 1 in 10,000.

You're just off a decimal point.

[Medicineman]

Wakshaani
You're mixing SR2 Fluff with SR5 Fluff
This is dangerous because your Math will/may be wrong.
Lets stick to SR5 Fluff
And there is only TWO Points valid :
#1 only 1 % of world Population is Awakened.
#2 from all Mages 90 % are Aspected Mages and 10 % are full mages.
that is All the oficial statements we have !
There is NO oficial percentage of Mages /Adept/other/unusable to the Awakened in general
and no explanation of the Ratio usefull Awakened to minor or useless talents
( I strongly remember near 50/50 Adepts/Mages, but I don't know where to find it (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) )

There is NO MORE Canon/Fluff, etc which is valid to base your calculations on !
---
SR2 had the valid Points :
# 1 only 1% is awakened
# 2 from all awakened only 10 % are full Mages
the rest is adepts, aspected, unusable Minor Talents etc
But that is SR2 which is 20 Years / a FULL Generation before SR5 percentages may shift or change

So unless You manage to write new Digits in oficial Books (and You're the only one who can do that (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif) )
You have to stick to the same oficial numbers as any of us (or use your own House....numbers (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif) )
No extrawurst for you unless its oficial (IMG:style_emoticons/default/cool.gif)

He who dances without an Extrawurst
Medicineman

[Medicineman]

I keep it simple in my SR Universes :
1% is Awakened
50% of these are Adepts and 50 % are Mages
10 % of Adepts are Mystic/Magic Adepts and 10% of Mages are Full Mages
90 & re Minor Talents ( MAG maximal 3 , or have only a Knack like Spökenkieker, still in Training, too Young, too old ,etc)
10 & (of both Adepts and Mages) are fully trained and able Awakened

With an easy to remember Dance
Medicineman

[lokii]

Well, one could argue that if the SR5 numbers do not directly contradict earlier canonical information (what you have given does not) then they don't necessarily supersede it. Anyway, even if you think the conversion rate should not be as low as 10%, assuming that everyone with a potential will develop the talent doesn't seem justifiable either. Many don't want to, many can't, many will fail at it.

By the way, where can the SR5 numbers be found?

[Medicineman]

Well, one could argue that if the SR5 numbers do not directly contradict earlier canonical information

its not that they contradict each other (which they don't) its a Lack of further oficiall Info.
How much of the 1 % is Adept, how many are Mages, what is the Ratio of Minor Talents, unable Awakened, Fully grown Aspected Mages, etc.
There is NOT enough Raw Data to do any serious statistics.
THAT is my Point (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

By the way, where can the SR5 numbers be found?

in the BBB Magic Chapter first Page
In German on Page 274 (the 90 % Aspected and 10 % Full)

HougH!
Medicineman