TN Success Chances, A new tool for metagamers and GMs. |
TN Success Chances, A new tool for metagamers and GMs. |
Feb 28 2005, 01:15 AM
Post
#1
|
|
Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 349 Joined: 16-January 05 Member No.: 6,984 |
After reading through http://forums.dumpshock.com/index.php?showtopic=7319 and more specifically that the inability to easily determine the chances for success in a given test, I was inspired to do a little coding.
So I made this simple program, text only interface, admittedly, but I think that it is fairly easy to use, it will give you the chance of getting a given number of successes, on a given TN, with a given number of dice. It also will if you desire, give you either the chance of getting at least that number of successes, or at most that number of successes. It can be found at http://www.ug.cs.usyd.edu.au/~adel3746/Sha...wrun/TNChance.c You will need a c compiler to compile and then use it. It is mostly intended for use by GMs, but hey, I can't stop players from using it. Hopefully it will come in handy. |
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 03:06 AM
Post
#2
|
|
Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 556 Joined: 28-May 04 From: Moorhead, MN, USA Member No.: 6,367 |
Is it like this?
|
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 05:35 AM
Post
#3
|
|
Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,664 Joined: 21-September 04 From: Arvada, CO Member No.: 6,686 |
Would you mind just putting up a compiled version of the code? I think you'd get a much better reception with that little effort on the part of the person using your cool little prog.
|
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 06:12 AM
Post
#4
|
|
Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 108 Joined: 10-July 02 From: SLC, Utah Member No.: 2,960 |
Ditto;
Not all of us are CS majors, and I have a hell of a time trying to compile c-code on my own. But I would like to try your version, and Da9iel version is good too. Veracusse |
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 06:46 AM
Post
#5
|
|
Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,011 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Montréal, QC, Canada Member No.: 7,087 |
Just use Excel and you can quickly determine odds.
Set up rows and column indicating number of dice and number of successes, set up a space to indicate TN and reference all that appropriately using the binomial function and voilà. It's should be easy. Now, that Qbasics program, that's chinese to me! :wobble: |
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 06:57 AM
Post
#6
|
|
Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,011 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Montréal, QC, Canada Member No.: 7,087 |
0 1 2 3 4
1 83.33% 16.67% #NOMBRE! #NOMBRE! #NOMBRE! 2 69.44% 27.78% 2.78% #NOMBRE! #NOMBRE! 3 57.87% 34.72% 6.94% 0.46% #NOMBRE! 4 48.23% 38.58% 11.57% 1.54% 0.08% 5 40.19% 40.19% 16.08% 3.22% 0.32% 6 33.49% 40.19% 20.09% 5.36% 0.80% 7 27.91% 39.07% 23.44% 7.81% 1.56% 8 23.26% 37.21% 26.05% 10.42% 2.60% 9 19.38% 34.89% 27.91% 13.02% 3.91% 10 16.15% 32.30% 29.07% 15.50% 5.43% 11 13.46% 29.61% 29.61% 17.77% 7.11% 12 11.22% 26.92% 29.61% 19.74% 8.88% This is with a TN of 6, number of dice rolled left and successes on top. You could set a board to show cumulative odds instead (i.e. the odds of scoring 2 successes or more with 6 dice) That's an example of what you can get in mere minutes. Do the function once, lock the variables correctly and you can copy paste for the whole board. Reference the probability to a specific space and you can change the whole board by adjusting the TN. It's a snap. It took me the 11 minutes you see between my two posts to get it right, including the time required to write these lines. It only took me more than 2 minutes because I'm not that good at conceptualizing and screwed up a bit while setting up variables. EDIT : Well, it doesn't show up as well as on Excel, so use your imagination. ;) |
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 07:13 AM
Post
#7
|
|||
Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,664 Joined: 21-September 04 From: Arvada, CO Member No.: 6,686 |
1 die, vs TN 6, for 1 success = 1/6th probabilty. This = 16.6666666666 percent chance of getting a 6. You're flawed charon. Edit: Unless your chart just sucks... heh.
|
||
|
|||
Mar 1 2005, 07:24 AM
Post
#8
|
|
Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,664 Joined: 21-September 04 From: Arvada, CO Member No.: 6,686 |
However, using Rann's program, I can duplicate you chart, as well as make other charts for other TNs. I sent him my modified code (made it C++ instead of C), and I'll wait for him to get back to me on posting the source and/or an executable.
|
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 07:52 AM
Post
#9
|
|||
Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,011 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Montréal, QC, Canada Member No.: 7,087 |
Hey, *I* am not flawed. I am god's perfect creature. :D Yeah, using code gives a cleaner look, doesn't it. looks good on Excel, it's all I want from it. I can make other charts for other TN too. I just change the TN and tadaa, everything adjust automatically. Now, OTOH, how do I use Rann's program? I'm not even sure what I'm supposed to use to run it. :please: |
||
|
|||
Mar 1 2005, 02:01 PM
Post
#10
|
|
Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,664 Joined: 21-September 04 From: Arvada, CO Member No.: 6,686 |
After I get home from work today, I'll drop an exe of his program I made for everyone. I ended up converting his code to C++ (as thats what I code in) and compiling it that way into a nice, quick and easy executable. It asks for the TN, # of dice, # of wanted successes, and then what sort of probability you want. At least # of successes, at most # of successes, or exactly # of successes. I have a modified one that just shows all three, removing a prompt.
|
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 02:53 PM
Post
#11
|
|||
Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,070 Joined: 7-February 04 From: NYC Member No.: 6,058 |
Am I reading this wrong, or does this chart actually indicate that chances of success start dropping once you start using more than 6 dice? :| Something is seriously wrong with this thing... |
||
|
|||
Mar 1 2005, 02:55 PM
Post
#12
|
|
Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,664 Joined: 21-September 04 From: Arvada, CO Member No.: 6,686 |
Chance of 0 succeses, or of failing drops with more dice, chance of 1 success rises. First column is 0 succesess a.k.a. failing.
|
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 03:36 PM
Post
#13
|
|
Manus Celer Dei Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 17,006 Joined: 30-December 02 From: Boston Member No.: 3,802 |
Don't suppose we could get a manpage off of you? This one's going in the $PATH.
~J |
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 06:29 PM
Post
#14
|
|||
Shooting Target Group: Members Posts: 1,754 Joined: 9-July 04 From: Modesto, CA Member No.: 6,465 |
It's justified paranoia. Many people won't "just download" some executable code, who really knows what it does? Alot of forums will chastise you for not posting source code so the user can compile and run on their own. That's why I run the "VBA" disclaimer when I posted my stuff, macros and malicious code can really run your day. :dead: |
||
|
|||
Mar 1 2005, 08:08 PM
Post
#15
|
|||
Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,070 Joined: 7-February 04 From: NYC Member No.: 6,058 |
So why does the chance of success in column 2 (chance of one success) start to drop off when you're using more than 6 dice? And why is the chance for getting one success on 5 dice listed the same as on 6 dice? (which value is, BTW, the wrong for both 5 and 6 dice - they should be at around 60 and 67% respectively, unless I'm way off somewhere). |
||
|
|||
Mar 1 2005, 08:30 PM
Post
#16
|
|||||
Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,011 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Montréal, QC, Canada Member No.: 7,087 |
Chances of only one success eventually drops. Odds are you will score more than one successes past a certain point. The binomial gives you the exact odds for a precise number of successes and that little chart was a essentially a distribution of odds. Add all the odds of one row and it equals 1 (100%). While wasting time away, I made it cumulative instead, so that you get the odds of scoring X amount of successes or more. It's more useful.
That's for TN 5. EDIT : man, there's no way to get those damn columns to line up, is there? Anyway, on that chart you could read that the odds with TN 5 and six dice are that you'll get at least 2 successes 64.88% of the the time as opposed to 32.92% odds of getting exactly 2 successes. You wil fail altogether 8.78% of the time. On the first chart I made, you would have read the odds of getting an exact number of successes, not X+ successes. Understand? |
||||
|
|||||
Mar 1 2005, 08:27 PM
Post
#17
|
|
Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,664 Joined: 21-September 04 From: Arvada, CO Member No.: 6,686 |
Yes, and this program gives you the odds for all of that, its nice. I can do TN(200) with 1000 dice if I felt like it, and get the odds for all of that, at once, in one quick and easy thing.
|
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 08:39 PM
Post
#18
|
|||
Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,011 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Montréal, QC, Canada Member No.: 7,087 |
Well, good. I'm eager to see it work. But I can roughly tell you the odds of getting any successes on a TN of 200 with 2000 dice right now ; approximately zero. ;) |
||
|
|||
Mar 1 2005, 08:49 PM
Post
#19
|
|
Shooting Target Group: Members Posts: 1,754 Joined: 9-July 04 From: Modesto, CA Member No.: 6,465 |
How do you plan on using this in SR other than being able to tell you runners (with conviction) they have no chance in hell, LOL.
|
|
|
Mar 1 2005, 09:00 PM
Post
#20
|
|
Running Target Group: Members Posts: 1,011 Joined: 15-February 05 From: Montréal, QC, Canada Member No.: 7,087 |
It's only really useful for planning a mission.
Like, how likely is the Shaman to banish that spirit or the infiltrator to break that security? How will that affect the likley flow of events? That sort of thing. Also, PC might like to tinker a bit with that kind of tool to have a better idea of what they can or can't do. Obviously, I only just drew up my chart generator. I was getting by fine without it for years. If you have a good handle on statistics, you don't really need that kind of tools but if you are math challenged it can help. GM looking up these numbers have to remember they'll use karma pool, though. A TN 12 with with 10 dice is likely only 24.55% likely to succeed... unless the PC is willing to use 3 karma pool to reroll thrice. Then you are I think 57.05% likely to succeed. Big difference. Most people graps that intuitively, though. |
|
|
Mar 2 2005, 01:11 AM
Post
#21
|
|
Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,664 Joined: 21-September 04 From: Arvada, CO Member No.: 6,686 |
I have an executable compiled from the code, I sent it to Rann and I'm hoping he can mirror it.
|
|
|
Mar 2 2005, 02:31 AM
Post
#22
|
|
Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 349 Joined: 16-January 05 Member No.: 6,984 |
I have been busy of late, I will upload the code and the executable this afternoon.
|
|
|
Mar 2 2005, 03:43 AM
Post
#23
|
|
Manus Celer Dei Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 17,006 Joined: 30-December 02 From: Boston Member No.: 3,802 |
Incidentally, what is this licensed under? I'm going to tweak some things for my own use, but I've got a PPC7450-optimized copy that I'd be glad to send people if it's permittable and desired.
~J |
|
|
Mar 2 2005, 05:51 AM
Post
#24
|
|
Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 349 Joined: 16-January 05 Member No.: 6,984 |
Hmm, consider it to be under a copyleft. You can modify it and the like, but just please acknowledge me and anyone else who originally modified the code you then tweaked and modified.
And alas, I am not going to get the time to do the upload tonight, perhaps in a less busy section of O-week tomorrow. |
|
|
Mar 2 2005, 06:14 PM
Post
#25
|
|
Target Group: Members Posts: 46 Joined: 29-June 04 From: Ottawa, Canada Member No.: 6,445 |
Since the last computer I was able to program was a Commodore 64 (LOGO - now that was a language), I recently prepared a set of Excel tables to print so that my players can resolve tests of 4 to 15 dice (TNs 2 to 19) using 1d000 (actually a probability table using 1d000,000 but the first 3 dice are enough for 99% of the rolls). I figure it will speed up group combat a bit and extend the lifespan of our gaming table...
I'll happily send the Excel file (340Kb) to anyone interested, as long as you don't mind the few French column titles ! :beret: |
|
|
Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 25th April 2024 - 11:54 AM |
Topps, Inc has sole ownership of the names, logo, artwork, marks, photographs, sounds, audio, video and/or any proprietary material used in connection with the game Shadowrun. Topps, Inc has granted permission to the Dumpshock Forums to use such names, logos, artwork, marks and/or any proprietary materials for promotional and informational purposes on its website but does not endorse, and is not affiliated with the Dumpshock Forums in any official capacity whatsoever.