EX Ammo isDumb |
EX Ammo isDumb |
Sep 8 2005, 09:40 PM
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#1
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 932 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Orlando, Florida Member No.: 1,042 |
On a critical glitch, it blows up in your face.
I'm not very good at math, but it seems to me that if ten soldiers each fired off a hundred rounds in combat in a 24-hr period, you could expect (total guess) 50% of them to be wounded by their own defective gear.Which I'm going to guess is hard on morale, if nothing else. Why would I issue this to my personnel? |
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Sep 8 2005, 09:44 PM
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#2
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Manus Celer Dei Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 17,006 Joined: 30-December 02 From: Boston Member No.: 3,802 |
Because it kills armored people better than APDS ammo for some mysterious reason?
I'm not arguing that it isn't dumb, it's just dumb two ways. Contrary to popular belief, that does not necessarily equal "balanced". ~J |
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Sep 8 2005, 09:46 PM
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#3
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Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,718 Joined: 14-September 02 Member No.: 3,263 |
BECAUSE THEY ARE ELITE SOILDERS!
Sir, yes Sir! ELITE SOILDERS DO NOT GO CRYING TO MOMMIES EVERY TIME THEIR GUN BLOWS UP IN THEIR FACE, BECAUSE ELITE SOILDERS CAN TAKE IT! SIR, we will frag them or die trying, SIR! YOU WILL NOT DIE ON ME MAGGOT!!! Maybe APDS aren't such bad ammo after all? ;) EDIT: Critical Glitches become a lot rarer once you reach 10ish dice. It is only when tossing 3 or 4 dice that you'd be anywhere close to the number injured that you are talking about. |
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Sep 8 2005, 09:53 PM
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#4
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 932 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Orlando, Florida Member No.: 1,042 |
Blakkie: You can't expect one critical glitch in 100 rolls for 50% of rollers?
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Sep 8 2005, 09:55 PM
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#5
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Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,718 Joined: 14-September 02 Member No.: 3,263 |
Depends on how many dice are you rolling? At 10 dice i don't think it is anywhere near that. There should be a Glitch and Critical Glitch table around here somewhere. I know someone made one up. |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:01 PM
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#6
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Manus Celer Dei Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 17,006 Joined: 30-December 02 From: Boston Member No.: 3,802 |
Odds of a glitch on:
1 die: 16.667% 2 dice: 30.556% (can someone double-check that? It makes sense that you've now got the same number of 1s needed to glitch but increased dice on which to make those 1s, but it's still a weird jump) 3 dice: 7.407% 4 dice: 13.194%… waitaminute, it's time to reread those glitch rules. More when I figure out if this is all fatally flawed or not. ~J |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:06 PM
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#7
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Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,718 Joined: 14-September 02 Member No.: 3,263 |
That isn't right for Critical Glitch. Except for when rolling 1 die. Where every Glitch is Critical.
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Sep 8 2005, 10:07 PM
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#8
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Manus Celer Dei Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 17,006 Joined: 30-December 02 From: Boston Member No.: 3,802 |
Why isn't it right? Not saying it isn't, but I'm still looking for the error.
~J |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:10 PM
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#9
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Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,718 Joined: 14-September 02 Member No.: 3,263 |
Those look like the odds for Glitch. Not Critical Glitch (no successes). The lower your number of dice the closer the two are, but by 3 dice they start separating. Hang on, i'll work out the numbers.
Someone with good search-fu can look around because i know someone posted a table about this. |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:15 PM
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#10
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 286 Joined: 5-September 05 Member No.: 7,688 |
Seriously, how often is a critical glitch even going to happen if you have more than reasonable skill in the weapon? Let's give the character completely average stats: Agility 3 and Pistols 3, with no gun enhancements or situational modifiers. He rolls six dice. To get a critical glitch, three dice must come up as 1's. The last three dice can be a 1, 2, 3, or 4 each (a single 5 or 6 would make it a hit, thus only a simply glitch).
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 4/6 * 4/6 * 4/6 = 64/46656 That's a 0.137% chance of rolling a critical glitch for a completely average character, or 1 in 729 rolls. That's along the lines of the optional D&D rule "critical kill" (roll two 20's on a 1d20, then a threat confirmation for an automatic kill, or 1/20 * 1/20 * 10/20 (average AC) = 1/800)). I hope my math's right (never been very good at it), but in all honesty critical glitches seem to be a vague mishap that only plagues characters or enemies doing something they really don't know how to do. Even with just two dice: 1/6 * 4/6 = 4/36, or 11.111% of a critical glitch per roll. As for your example of "10 soldiers firing off 100 rounds each", assuming they're NOT using burst/full-auto (significantly less chance because of less die rolls, but definitely greater potential damage) and each have an average roll of 6 dice, then on average about 1.37 (1000 rounds * 0.00137, or 1000/729) of them would suffer a critical glitch at some point. And even then, there's always Edge points to negate that. |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:21 PM
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#11
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Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,718 Joined: 14-September 02 Member No.: 3,263 |
Ok, with 2 dice:
Critical Glich = 7/36 = 19.4% Glich (not Critical) = 2/36 = 5.5% With 3 dice: Critical Glich = 10/216 = 4.6% Glich (not Critical) = 6/216 = 2.8% EDIT: Kagetenshi, see up here with the 3 dice. If you add the percentages together for the total number of Glitches that comes to 7.4%. Four dice will see a small rise, but you'll see quite a drop off at 5 dice. EDIT: Veggiesama, you are coming up short on the number of possible Critical Glitches because you are calculating permutations, not combinations. This is a combinations problem. |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:35 PM
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#12
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Manus Celer Dei Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 17,006 Joined: 30-December 02 From: Boston Member No.: 3,802 |
Yep, that's what I was doing. I'd missed the fact that it was criticals only that were important—too used to thinking in terms of botches. Still, I find it an interesting hole in the system that even-numbered die pools glitch more frequently than their next-lower odd-numbered neighbor. ~J |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:48 PM
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#13
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Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,718 Joined: 14-September 02 Member No.: 3,263 |
That is because of the round-off requiring that you actually get more than 1/2 of your dice as 1's when you have an odd number of dice. Once you get higher, say going from 9 to 10, the rise becomes a lot less because the round-off is a much smaller percentage of the whole.
Of course for those higher dice counts it is really going to be the Rush Jobs (both 1's and 2's count towards Glitching) on Extended tests where the real chance of Glitches occuring are. |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:54 PM
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#14
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Prime Runner Group: Banned Posts: 3,732 Joined: 1-September 05 From: Prague, Czech Republic Member No.: 7,665 |
Soldiers roll 8 dice with their guns. If they have no bonuses or penalties to worry about, they actually fail just (2/3)^8 = 3.9% of the time. And of those failures, only 7459 out of 65,536 are glitches. Which means that an 8 die soldier has only a 0.44% chance of glitching on each shot.
So if ten guys shot 10 shots each, you have a 64% chance of no cookoffs at all. Now, a definate weirdness in the system is that your chances of cookoffs go up sharply if you are firing at enemies who are far away. And that's pretty weird all around. -Frank |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:57 PM
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#15
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Neophyte Runner Group: Members Posts: 2,001 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Michigan Member No.: 1,514 |
Say what's the same percentage for an M16A2 service rifle? |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:57 PM
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#16
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Shooting Target Group: Retired Admins Posts: 1,784 Joined: 28-July 04 From: Cleveland, OH Member No.: 6,522 |
I posted a glitch and critical glitch table over on rpg.net here. It covers 2-12 dice at thresholds 1-4. It's not calculated values, but it's estimated based on 100,000 dice rolls. That should be close enough for government work.
Anyways, as far as critical glitch frequency goes -- it's less than 1% chance once you hit 7 dice. Assuming elite troops at 10 dice in their pools, the chance is 0.1%. So, if your troopers are run of the mill joes, tossing 6 dice, at 100 attacks each, yes, it's likely that most of them will have blown up. If your troopers are elite, tossing 10 dice each, then under the same conditions, about 10 of them have their guns blow up. For a Streetsam, with a 5 agility, a 4 relevant skill, and a SL, he's throwing 11 dice. The odds of him hitting a critical glitch are less than 0.1%. Unless your dice hate you, or your at some serious dice penalties, you're pretty safe using EX. |
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Sep 8 2005, 10:58 PM
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#17
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Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,718 Joined: 14-September 02 Member No.: 3,263 |
It's because...you screw up more because you are concentrating more on your enemies, or you are distracted by the fog or, umm....ya, it's wierd. |
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Sep 8 2005, 11:01 PM
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#18
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Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill. Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 6,545 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Gloomy Boise Idaho Member No.: 2,006 |
With proper care and cleaning? About 10,000 rounds. |
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Sep 8 2005, 11:01 PM
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#19
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panda! Group: Members Posts: 10,331 Joined: 8-March 02 From: north of central europe Member No.: 2,242 |
never mind
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Sep 8 2005, 11:04 PM
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#20
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Dragon Group: Members Posts: 4,718 Joined: 14-September 02 Member No.: 3,263 |
Well then nevermind this too. :wobble: ;)
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Sep 8 2005, 11:06 PM
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#21
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panda! Group: Members Posts: 10,331 Joined: 8-March 02 From: north of central europe Member No.: 2,242 |
heh, i missread the post i was commenting on and deleted my post so...
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Sep 8 2005, 11:25 PM
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#22
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Target Group: Members Posts: 46 Joined: 27-January 05 Member No.: 7,022 |
You know, even if you are right about the soldier firing 100 times over a 24 hours period...
Would you really want to do 100 rolls for each and every soldier?! Maybe the system as some lack, but you gotta roleplay it. If they are experienced soldiers they'll get trough. If they enter combat with some of you PC that's a different story, but even then i guess there is no chance to fire 100 times in a firefight(100 bullets yes, 100 times to pull the trigger... no way). It's a situation that should not happen in a roleplaying game isn't it? But i agree that maybe, in the more realistically point of view that's a lack. i still think that those rule cover situation(combat, social, action-pack or stealthy) that you wanna tell as a story and need to get done with some roll on the behalf of the player and that's were the dice rolling mechanics is integrated in the story. Even in ADnD an army of Orcs with a 100 archers(for example) as a fair chance to score many 20 on the hit roll. I prefer to split the opposition in small group (lets say 25 per group) and do 4 rolls and keep the story going. Of course i can do 100 rolls and i can even calculate the result over a 24 hours periods and be amaze at how much critical hit or miss. But then again... I guess if i do that i should instead become a regular Dumpshocker as i already am! :P |
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Sep 8 2005, 11:58 PM
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#23
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Moving Target Group: Members Posts: 502 Joined: 14-May 03 From: Detroit, Michigan Member No.: 4,583 |
Simply don't do glitches unless they are appropriate. The same thing happened in SR3 with the "rule of one". If for some reason the character is using a low number of dice the odds of a critical failure become unacceptably high.
Here's an additional thought for ammo though...... Under SR4 Rules the odds of your ammo blowing up in your face while shooting at a target behind partial cover in poor light is significantly better than if shooting at a stationary target in broad daylight at close range. :spin: |
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Sep 9 2005, 12:46 AM
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#24
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panda! Group: Members Posts: 10,331 Joined: 8-March 02 From: north of central europe Member No.: 2,242 |
heh, the basic problem of applying negativ dice on a test where something may blow up. the logic just dont fits.
a simple rewrite is to say that the gm may have the ammo blow up if he feels like it fitting the story at that time. but it should not happen 100% of the time a gun is loading with ex ammo and a critical glitch happens while firing said gun. |
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Sep 9 2005, 12:55 AM
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#25
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Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill. Group: Dumpshocked Posts: 6,545 Joined: 26-February 02 From: Gloomy Boise Idaho Member No.: 2,006 |
The biggest problem I am seeing with most of sr4 right now is that there are to many instances where the GM has to say 'no that doesn't make sense so we wont do that".
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