Congratualtions, it's an Ork! Options

[Sweaty Hippo]

Is there any way (in-game) for someone, mundane or Awakened, to tell if a newborn child or such, will become an Awakened?
Also, is there any way to tell if an (apparently) human child will become an Ork/Troll at puberty?
In addition, what about Technomancers? Do they develop their abilities through childhood, or are they immediately capable of manipulating the Matrix at an early age?

[FrankTrollman]

Amniocentesis can detect many but not all fetuses who will goblinize and all fetuses which are devloping into dwarfs or elves.

-Frank

[Method]

The quick answer is no, not really.

Shadowtech had an extensive section on the genetics of UGE/goblinization and what it basically boils down to is that certain genes thought to be introns (i.e. junk- not expressed) actually affect the "shape" of the genome which then casts astral shadows. In the proper magical environment those shadows cause metatrait expression.

But despite this detailed explanation of the epigenetic mechanism the section basically says that they don't understand enough about it to make accurate predictions. The only associations that hold true are:

1.) the child will take on the metatype of either the mother or father but not both (i.e. no half breeds)
2.) not counting humans, parents of the same metatype (i.e. 2 elves) generally have a child of the same metatype (i.e. an elf). They can theoretically have a child of a different metatype (i.e. a troll) but if it occurs it is so rare it has never been documented.

[edit]Augmentation also has a section that basically reiterates and updates Shadowtech with a few more details.

Frank- is that specifically stated anywhere (amniocentesis)?[/edit]

[CanRay]

Well, a simple Ultrasound can probably figure out the Metatype. Maybe not Elf/Human, but who knows, maybe they got the resolution up pretty good. Troll would be pretty easy for a Non-Troll Mother. ("Are you having twins?")

If the child is born human (Sapien Sapien, that is), there's no way to know if they'll Goblinize. It's rare, but does still happen. I think it usually occures in Low Mana areas, which require the kid's body to absorb enough magic in order to cause the change. But that's my two (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nuyen.gif) .

[the_dunner]

Amniocentesis can detect many but not all fetuses who will goblinize and all fetuses which are devloping into dwarfs or elves.

Can you please give a source for that? Because that's not consistent with my understanding of either the traditional Amniocentesis technique OR the knowledge of the genes associated with goblinization.

[Mordinvan]

Can you please give a source for that? Because that's not consistent with my understanding of either the traditional Amniocentesis technique OR the knowledge of the genes associated with goblinization.

It deals with the fact that elves, and dwarfs are born elfs and dwarfs, and as such MUST develop that way. The amnio will tell if the ELF/DWARF genes are actually active or not. As far as who will goblinize? it might look to see if that have the markers which will form the nessesary astral shadows in a mana heavy environment,

[Method]

Except thats not the way it works.

Its hard to make any conclusions based on their pseudoscientific explanations, but just inheriting the gene isn't enough because it is not a simple Mendelian inheritance trait. You might be able to tell if someone carries the necessary genes (assuming they have been accurately identified) but the problem there is that you're dealing with a trait that is multigenetic (and Augmentation states they haven't identified all the genes) and shows incomplete penetrance (based on ambient mana levels). Plus if two orcs can give birth to a human that might indicate locus heterogeneity and Augmentation makes it sound like some kind of chromosome rearrangement might also be involved.

And the kicker is there are epigenetic changes that have to occur and most amniocentesis uses karyotyping by FISH and/or PCR, neither of which would detect epigenetic changes much less astral shadows.

But wait theres more: Augmentation says that the epigenetic changes don't take place in vitro- probably has to do with separating the DNA from the persons living aura. Well the cells harvested in amniocentesis are shed- meaning they might also loose those epigenetic changes. I guess you could have a specially trained mage that assenses every sample, but he'd have to be standing by because you can't have samples sitting around for days waiting for a handful of awakened lab techs to "run them". I think the cost and demand would be prohibitive.

So in principle you might be able to use amniocenteses, but my understanding is that they can't because they lack a complete understanding of the genetics.

And because I am genuinely curious, and because I know Frank is probably up on his genetics, I ask again: Is there a canon reference or how did you come to that conclusion?

[Mordinvan]

Except thats not the way it works.

Its hard to make any conclusions based on their pseudoscientific explanations, but just inheriting the gene isn't enough because it is not a simple Mendelian inheritance trait- You might be able to tell if someone carries the necessary genes (assuming they have been accurately identified) but the problem there is that you're dealing with a trait that is A.) multigenetic (and Augmentation states they haven't identified all the genes) and B.) shows incomplete penetrance (based on ambient mana levels). Plus if two orcs can give birth to a human that might indicate locus heterogeneity and Augmentation makes it sound like some kind of chromosome rearrangement might also be involved.

And the kicker is there are epigenetic changes that have to occur and most amniocentesis uses karyotyping by FISH and/or PCR, neither of which would detect epigenetic changes much less astral shadows.

But wait theres more: Augmentation says that the epigenetic changes don't take place in vitro- probably has to do with separating the DNA from the persons living aura. Well the cells harvested in amniocentesis are shed- meaning they might also loose those epigenetic changes. I guess you could have a specially trained mage that assenses every sample, but then cost and demand would be prohibitive- he'd have to be standing by because you can't have samples sitting around for days waiting for a handful of awakened lab techs to "run them".

So in principle you might be able to use amniocenteses, but my understanding is that they can't because they lack a complete understanding of the genetics.

And because I am genuinely curious, and because I know Frank is probably up on his genetics, I ask again: Is there a canon reference or how did you come to that conclusion?

I'm not saying the detect the actual shadows themselves, but might be able to recognize the genetic marks which cause the necessary shadows for form.

[Method]

Not if they haven't fully identified the "genetic marks" and not if those "genetic marks" only cause UGE/goblinization some of the time.

Let me give you a different (and extreme example): do they do amniocentesis to check for future Coronary Artery Disease? No. Because there are too many genes involved, too many environmental variables and some people who have all the genes, smoke and eat McDonald's everyday still don't die of a heart attack. The test would have no value and wouldn't be worth the risk to the baby (and there are risks). Same with metatype.

[Mordinvan]

Not if they haven't fully identified the "genetic marks" and not if those "genetic marks" only cause UGE/goblinization some of the time.

Let me give you a different (and extreme example): do they do amniocentesis to check for future Coronary Artery Disease? No. Because there are too many genes involved, too many environmental variables and some people who have all the genes, smoke and eat McDonald's everyday still don't die of a heart attack. The test would have no value and wouldn't be worth the risk to the baby (and there are risks). Same with metatype.

Thing is they've said they've identified many of the genes involved in things like goblinization and the like, so they should be able to predict atleast some of the people who might goblinize under the right circumstances.

[Method]

Again: not worth the risks of performing amniocentesis.

You're talking about a 1/150 chance of fetal death for "well your kid might be an ork, but maybe not because we don't really know our ass from a hole in the ground." And "being ork" isn't a disease that requires treatment.

No rational mother would consent to it. No ethical doctor would do it. No decent hospital would allow it. And no insurance company that wanted to stay in business would pay for it.

[FrankTrollman]

You guys are throwing around old tech.

The Hausen breakthroughs yielded the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2050. What really won them the award was their explanation of the differences between UGE and Goblinization. Elven and dwarf metagenes can only establish expression during embryonic development. Thus, a human will not express the nobilis and pumilionis traits after diferentiation has occurred. Ork and troll metagenes can express either in vitro, through sudden expression triggered by puberty, or via a radical increase in ambient mana.
Forty-one metatraits have been identified as of this writing, but this may just be the tip of the iceberg. While metagenes are clearly inherited and generally metatypes breed true, in a few rare combinations they do not. It has been hypothesized that a complex interaction between a substantial number of these metagenes is key to reaching some sort of threshold. Instances of metahuman parents having human or different metavariant children have been recorded. Some combinations haven’t been observed, so it seems unlikely that two elven parents could ever have a troll. There are, however, many recorded instances of human children born of ork parents—though admittedly many go on to express at puberty, proving they have inherited all of the relevant metatraits.

]

So yes:

Non-invasive prenatal screening can demonstrate the difference between a human and an elf or dwarf. The UGE happens during early fetal development, so modern techniques can catch that. No Elven noble family need go through the heartbreak of having a human or dwarf son.

Prenatal screening can catch many but not all of the potential goblinization candidates. There are known combinations, so they can look at a genetic test and say with certainty that it will goblinize into a troll. But there are also unknown combinations, so they may end up looking at a genetic test and be unable to definitively determine what metatype it will ultimately be. While the odds would be on their side to call it a human, there's no guaranty that such a baby wouldn't change into a hobgoblin or a cyclops later in life.

And SURGE genetics is still pretty much not understood as far as I know. But it's not super important, because since 2062 it has been shown that SURGE traits manifest prenatally, so we don't need to ever figure out what the feathers gene is to identify potentially feathered babies before they are born. (Augmentation, p. 77)

-Frank

[Method]

So this is an inference you've made then? Not a leap I would make based on the info in Augmentation. My interpretation is that despite advances, geneticists in 2070 still lack the level understanding required to make meaningful predictions.

[FrankTrollman]

Forty-one metatraits have been identified as of this writing

-Frank

[Mordinvan]

So this is an inference you've made then? Not a leap I would make based on the info in Augmentation. My interpretation is that despite advances, geneticists in 2070 still lack the level understanding required to make meaningful predictions.

Elf and dwarf babies are observations not preditons, orc and troll predictions based on at least partially understood genetic traits

[Method]

Some other quotes from Augmentatinon:

"the actual mechanism remains unknown."

"What is clear, however, is that the metagenes are only part of it."

"Forty-one metatraits have been identified as of this writing,
but this may just be the tip of the iceberg."

And I will reiterate that there are still the problems of multigenicity, incomplete penetrance, locus heterogeneity and epigentic changes that may only be present on the astral.

A doctor could make predictions based on finding certain combinations of genes, but not knowing all the genes involved would greatly reduce accuracy and anything approaching 50% is basically a guess. That is not a reliable test.

[Method]

Elf and dwarf babies are observations not preditons, orc and troll predictions based on at least partially understood genetic traits

Not if you don't know all the genes to test for and not if a baby with some of the genes can still be human.

[Mordinvan]

In you humble oppinion. To know whats actually going on we'd have to ask the dev who wrote the section what the intent was. But until told otherwise by the guy who wrote it I'll side with Frank on this one.

[Method]

Science is not opinion. If you don't know all the genes or the mechanisms involved in the expression of a complex trait you can't accurately test for that trait in an individual or predict its occurrence in an individual.

My interpretation of the fluff is that they don't know all the genes involved and don't fully understand the mechanism, which is debatable i suppose. See the quotes from Augmentation in my previous post.

[WeaverMount]

>Science is not opinion
*looks around for ID nut-cases* Science is what scientists do. It is a human activity greatly shaped by opinion and all the rest of the dirty politicking of anything social animals take seriously. Truth is on an opinion. Science is not Truth. I say this knowing full well that people observing the real world, making positive testable claims, and testing them, and then action on those data are the only reason we aren't still living like hunters and gathers.

[Mordinvan]

Science is not opinion. If you don't know all the genes or the mechanisms involved in the expression of a complex trait you can't accurately test for that trait in an individual or predict its occurrence in an individual.

My interpretation of the fluff is that they don't know all the genes involved and don't fully understand the mechanism, which is debatable i suppose. See the quotes from Augmentation in my previous post.

By oppinion I mean your interpretation of the fluff. I know enough about genetics to understand whats going on, and feel they've provided enough information to allow for certain judgments to be made, you feel otherwise.

[FrankTrollman]

Science is not opinion. If you don't know all the genes or the mechanisms involved in the expression of a complex trait you can't accurately test for that trait in an individual or predict its occurrence in an individual.

Lolwut?

I guess we'll have to stop testing for Cystic Fibrosis, because we can't do it.

Whatever dude.

-Frank

[CanRay]

Again: not worth the risks of performing amniocentesis.

You're talking about a 1/150 chance of fetal death for "well your kid might be an ork, but maybe not because we don't really know our ass from a hole in the ground." And "being ork" isn't a disease that requires treatment.

No rational mother would consent to it. No ethical doctor would do it. No decent hospital would allow it. And no insurance company that wanted to stay in business would pay for it.

Tell that to Humanis, and the other Anti-Meta Policlubs. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nyahnyah.gif)

[weblife]

Actually the whole "use a big goddamn needle" is probably out by 2070.

I think I heard about a danish research team, who is currently in approval stages of a method that tests the mothers urine for the same traces that you'd pick up with the needle. Just using more sensitive equipment to pick up the fainter traces (in urine compared to the amniotic fluid).

This way, and their main reason for doing the research, you eliminate the risks for the foetus.

[hermit]

Of course, someone with medical skills and/or a high aura reading skill might just assense the fetus.