The Great CGL Rumors and Speculation Thread Options

[Backgammon]

Just re-read a few pages back....

Congrats Bull! So much for DDH then?

And does that mean John Dunn is moving up the chain? Wasn't he Missions coordinator?

Stephen McQuillan and Aaron Pavao were the co-coordinators, having replaced John some time ago already.

[Dwight]

No system yet designed has removed GM dickery.

The system doesn't need to remove it or Player dickery. It just needs to function in such a way that it is transparently obvious to everyone at the table when someone is being a Dick since the game grinds to a screeching halt, refusing to budge till the dickery stops. Actual Dick removal/rehabilitation is then left as an exercise for the people involved.

It is quite functional. Also works well as a filter for people that you want to play any RPG with.

[the_dunner]

And does that mean John Dunn is moving up the chain? Wasn't he Missions coordinator?

I moved up the chain last spring, then parted ways with Catalyst last summer. There are a number of unreleased products on which I have worked.

[Method]

Wow. I've been out of the loop apparently! (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wobble.gif)

[FrankTrollman]

Or go back to SR3 like I am doing. Skill 5 is professional and 9+ is world class. Variable TN makes it possible to actually challenge someone with a big dice pool.
...
A normal task is TN 4 while an impossible one is TN 10+. Instead of just requiring more successes to accomplish hard tasks you needed to beat a higher target number. This meant that a high skilled character had better chances of getting a success against a hard target number while also getting tons more successes than an untrained person would get on normal difficulties.

I am sick and tired of that meme. I was sick and tired of that meme five years ago. Variable Target Numbers are dead, because they do not behave as advertised. White Wolf went static target numbers too, and that is not why they collapsed financially and ended up getting purchased in a bankruptcy fire sale by the division of CCP run by Ryan Dancey (the man who had orchestrated their collapsing market share starting in 1998 or so while working for WotC). They collapsed because in the face of a deliberate and coordinated attack on the shelf space and market share by OGL 3e D&D they decided to try to get "new fans" by making a whole new World of Darkness that no one liked.

A TN 10+ isn't impossible. It's not even especially hard. A random civilian with a relevant interest (skill 3) succeeds 23% of the time. The supposedly world class guy succeeds 54% of the time. What this means is that if you have a difficult stunt, the chances are very good that Jackie Chan, even a cybernetically enhanced Jackie Chan, will fail utterly. On the other hand, if grab a bunch of random dudes off the street and ask them to perform that stunt like you were dong MXC, almost one in four of them will succeed. The variable target number generates the wrong results coming ad going because each die has the same chance to succeed as any other die - so the MXC concept of "let's send a dozen random civilians to attempt this task, one after the other" is more likely to generate success than any badass could possibly be capable of. I fact, our supposedly "world class" character is no more likely to succeed at any task than three random dudes are.

Compare to the improved system, where TNs are fixed at 5, and the number of hits required to perform various feats increases as the difficulty of the task increases. When moving from a Dice Pool of 3 to a Dice Pool of 9, a task requiring 3 hits goes from a 4% to a 62%. The more skilled individual is substantially more valuable than is a group of less skilled individuals for attempting difficult tasks. Even large groups of individuals with less skill. To have the same chance that one person will succeed at a Threshold of 3 out of the group of people with a dicepool of 3, you'd need a group of twenty three. Which is extremely different than needing a group of just 3 (since Shadowrun doesn't normally deal with groups of more than a dozen people in any case).

And the effects of modifiers are even easier to understand and predict in the fixed target number system! By a lot. You add or remove 3 dice, and you on average add or remove one hit. Do you know what happens to the averages when you increase or reduce TN by 3? Of course you don't! Because the effects are different depending upon what the TN was to begin with. If the TN was 5, then your chances of success were 33% per die rolled. If you reduce it by 3, your chances of success are 83% per die rolled. If you increase it by 3, your chances are now 14% per die rolled. On the other hand, if your TN was 6, then your chances of success were 17% per die rolled, and a TN decrease of 3 puts it at 67% per die rolled and an increase of 3 puts it at 11% per die rolled. And yeah, remember also that if the TN was 7, your original chances were the exact same 17% per die rolled, and yet with the TN decrease it goes to 50% per die and with the TN increase it goes to 8.3% per die.

It is a nightmare of opacity, and more importantly it doesn't generate the right results! The goal is to have the task resolution test not only generate a predictable result (which the SR4 system is superior at doing), but also to produce a result which is appropriate within genre - namely to have the highly skilled ninja be substantially more likely to succeed at picking a lock, sneaking across a courtyard, or leaping over a razor wire patch than a random contestant on an inscrutable Nipponese game show. And fixed TNs coupled with variant thresholds delivers on that, and variable TNs does not. Furthermore, the fixed TN, variable threshold system actually can produce effects which are genuinely impossible. And it segues simply and effectively from impossible to plausible to easy as characters get a larger dice pool. A dicepool of 3 cannot get 4 hits. It's impossible. A dicepool of 16 succeeds 83% of the time and can even "buy hits" to succeed automatically in downtime. There is no equivalent in SR3 mechanics, and cannot be - since the dicepool of 16 is by definition less likely to succeed at any task than is at least one person from a randomly selected group of a half dozen sarariman.

This is not mere opinion. That the SR4 system is faster, more transparent, and generates better results out of its random number generators than the SR3 variable TN system ever did or could is a mathematical fact. If I was going to design a new edition of any game using a dicepool system, I would use SR4 as a base and not SR3. In fact, I did.

-Frank

[Saint Sithney]

This debate here?
Hilarious.

<3 Dumpshock.

[knasser]

Let me put it to you this way: I don't trust either source of this information.

One of them has a history of banging his head against the establishment so hard he cracks his skull and blood pours out of his eyes. To say that there might be some slant (some would call it dancing on the ruins of the stupid stage) to his words would be an understatement.

In all my experiences with FrankTrollman, I have found him outspoken, uncompromising and very honest. Unless I have good reason to doubt him, then when he comes out with a statement like this, My order of probability is: Frank is right - High probability. Frank is wrong but thinks he's right - low probability. Frank is wrong and consciously twisting things - out of consideration. Frank has had some whopping clashes with people on various occasions, and that actually reduces the chance that the above is a twisting of events, imo, because during those clashes, I have seem him remain objective and give me neutral advice on matters to do with FanPro and Catalyst. I'm inclined to trust his comments. I know also that he likes Shadowrun a lot and I can't see him wishing to harm the game at all.

And keep in mind that we wouldn't have this thread or CGL's response if it weren't for his post.

For what it's worth,

Khadim.

[Method]

So Frank: does this mean you're back? (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nyahnyah.gif)

[knasser]

("Throw a grenade!"... "I can't, I can only do that once per day!")

(IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

[Lansdren]

This is a worrying turn about but things will work out one way or another. Whilst there is a community who are a passionate about the game as we all obviously are it will always be around in some form.

[Stahlseele]

See? A bit condescending in his posting style, but Frank does know what he is talking about ^^
Personally, i DO hope this means he is back ^^

[LurkerOutThere]

For the record FrankTrollman could be completely truthful without intentional omission or deceit and it still might not be the whole story. The company statement could to the same, for added fun factor they could both be truthful and without intentional deceit simultaneously! The truth works like that and business is seldom simple. This talk of "Oh it's a corporate spin" etc etc always make me roll my eyes. You know what happens if Frank calls someone out and is wrong? Likely very little, you know what happens if CGL or any other business entity names names and paints facts before it's gotten to a court of law? A lawsuit. That's how libel and slander works in the loosest sort of terms. I wish everyone would meditate on that before the word spin is ever used again in the public vernacular.

Also Frank's post on 3rd vs 4th actually made me chortle out loud.

[Rotbart van Dain...]

Thank you for summing up what's spin doctoring is all about:

To make you look the best way possible, as well as cast the most doubt on any other source of information, while giving you the least legal liability.
Sure, it's standard procedure. It's still putting a positive spin on a potentially disastrous leak.* Having the threads relabeled (or having them deleted entirely) didn't help, either.

*PS: Yes, that's the smart thing to do for the general audience. If you sell a game about corporations getting away with murder… not so much for that audience.

[toturi]

And keep in mind that we wouldn't have this thread or CGL's response if it weren't for his post.

For what it's worth,

Khadim.

We wouldn't have this thread if it weren't for his post, because it is precisely his post that started this thread.

I think there is a high likelihood that we wouldn't have CGL's response if it weren't for his post.

To make you look the best way possible, as well as cast the most doubt on any other source of information, while giving you the least legal liability.

QFT.

[raben-aas]

Someone here said some posts back that the notion to donate free work to CGL is the wrong concept since the only people deserving any kind of donation right now are the unpaid freelancers. Now, jumping on that train of thought: One of the problems at present seems to be that freelancers are holding back their copyrights until they get paid, thus preventing CGL to release some of the new books that are essentially ready to be printed (if we put Franks theory aside that CGL doesn't have the cred to print anyway).

Now, I think most freelancers don't care where their rightly deserved creds come from. IF there was a way that SR fans could donate money to pay the freelancers WITHOUT giving that money to CGL or working through CGL, that may be a win-win situation for all:

- The freelancers get the money. They deserve it and worked hard for it.
- The deal is: They get the money via fanbase and do not withhold their copyrights anymore, so things can proceed (or rather: things won't stop because of this factor)
- Then if the books are not produced, for whatever reason, they got their payment. Great!
- If books are produced, fans get new books. Even greater!
- If CGL solves its cashflow problem and pay the freelancers up later (because, like, there's a contract that has frag to do with any fans donating money) the freelancers effectively got double pay. That is: double the amount of little pay they usually get (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

It's just a thought that popped up, and admittedly it may be stupid beyond belief - however I see no flaw other than how to pull this off (meaning: how to organize that "charity payment" in terms of collecting money and getting it to the right people on the right conditions ("You get donation, you do not withhold copyright")).

And before anyone thinks I made this up to get money myself, either by getting donations as a freelancer or by some sort of ... you know, maneuver that started this crap ... let me say that I do not expect this to be pulled of (because, you know, talking is so much easier than doing) and ven if it was, I would have no part of it either way.

[Stahlseele]

It won't work.
It sounds too reasonable/good.
There has to be a problem with this.

[raben-aas]

My thoughts precisely.

[Rotbart van Dain...]

So, let me get this straight:

The Fans should donate so a company get's a free license, then pay the same for the books as if the company paid said license?
And in the case of the books not being produced*, the freelancers can't even release their work themselves since they did the standard exclusive license to the company?

Sorry, the only way this would ever work out is a non-exclusive license – and that's quite unlikely to be accepted.

PS: Like SoLA: After years of "Sure, we'll release it, maybe as a PDF – really soon now. Then you'll get payed – so don't you publish your drafts." it turned into "It's dead, Jim. You won't get payed – but we'll butcher your work for spare parts anyway, so please don't release your drafts."

[raben-aas]

The Fans should donate so a company get's a free license, then pay the same for the books as if the company paid said license?

That is pretty much the definition of a donation, yes.

And in the case of the books not being produced*, the freelancers can't even release their work themselves since they did the standard exclusive license to the company?

At least they got paid. And legally, as their contract with CGL was unfulfilled (because CGL did NOT pay) they retain he sam rights they have now, as unpaid freelancers.

[Rotbart van Dain...]

And legally, as their contract with CGL was unfulfilled (because CGL did NOT pay) they retain he sam rights they have now, as unpaid freelancers.

It' not that easy – in that case, they already licensed it to CGL, or else CGL couldn't try publish it. That's the kind of legal limbo Frank was talking about.

The terms of a license allowing for what you suggest are untypical at best, and right now, most likely not the kind of legalese the freelancers or CGL want to worry about; in fact, CGL most likely has enough legal challenges ahead as it is.

[dirkformica]

So Frank: does this mean you're back? (IMG:style_emoticons/default/nyahnyah.gif)

Please say yes! I like lurking at www.tgdmb.com too, but this is more specific to my interests. Plus, I STILL want to know what was 'sposed to happen in your Event Horizon-esque (and yeah, many HATE that film, but I like several elements) game from HERE. And all the truth too, of course. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

[raben-aas]

It' not that easy – in that case, they already licensed it to CGL, or else CGL couldn't try publish it. That's the kind of legal limbo Frank was talking about.

Yes, but your point above referred to "in the case of the books not being produced", in which case the freelancers would retain their rights ANYWAY:

Current situation:
– Freelancers unpaid, some withhold copyright until paid --> books can't be printed.

Scenario I: Nothing changes, freelanvers remain unpaid, books will not be printed
– Freelancers retain their rights and can do with their property what they want (as long as no other trademarks/licenses or NDA stuff is concerned)

Scenario II: Fans pay freelancers, in return the freelancers to not withhold their copyright anymore.
– Freelancers get paid, CGL /could/ print for all they care

Scenario IIa: Books get printed
– Contracts between CGL and freelancers are still valid and have to be paid

Scenario IIb: Books do not get printed
– see current situation/scenario I, only difference is the freelancer has the donation

[JM Hardy]

PS: Like SoLA: After years of "Sure, we'll release it, maybe as a PDF – really soon now. Then you'll get payed – so don't you publish your drafts." it turned into "It's dead, Jim. You won't get payed – but we'll butcher your work for spare parts anyway, so please don't release your drafts."

I mainly wanted to comment on this. Leaving aside the dramatic language, I don't recall saying anywhere that I didn't want people releasing their drafts. I believe several did so without a comment from me. If I'm mistaken, I'm happy to be corrected.

Second, I also wanted to point out that I was a freelancer for SoLA, so by making the decision I'm deciding that I won't be paid, along with others who worked on the project. Yes, it sucks. But releasing an out-of-date product that would likely lose significant sums of money sucks, too. I wish SoLA had come out, but by the time I became developer, its time had passed, and I don't think it does anyone any good to leave it in limbo.

Jason H.

[Kool Kat]

I know what this means for me... I need to purchase my books I am missing from my SR4 collection before they end up on Amazon.com with a price tag of $500 for a new copy. Shadowrunners Companion is already listed at $256 NEW. Gouge out my eye circuits and piss in the sockets why don't ya!?

If it's all going down how the Trollman is linking then its just a confirmation of the old saying, "It only takes one to *%# up the party for all!"

[Rotbart van Dain...]

I mainly wanted to comment on this. Leaving aside the dramatic language, I don't recall saying anywhere that I didn't want people releasing their drafts. I believe several did so without a comment from me. If I'm mistaken, I'm happy to be corrected.

Second, I also wanted to point out that I was a freelancer for SoLA, so by making the decision I'm deciding that I won't be paid, along with others who worked on the project. Yes, it sucks. But releasing an out-of-date product that would likely lose significant sums of money sucks, too. I wish SoLA had come out, but by the time I became developer, its time had passed, and I don't think it does anyone any good to leave it in limbo.

Thank you for clearing that one up – sorry if sounding bitter. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

It's good to hear that you do not oppose the release of SoLA drafts – people would be surely happy to see more of those, including your's.
Given the fan-made shadowtalk mock-up of the CGL press release and similar high-quality work, even a fan-based compilation could be a possibility.

Perhaps i interpreted too much into JongWK's statement:

At this point, and unless there are better news fast, I see no point in holding back all the SoLA stuff.