Brainstorm: California Options

[Demonseed Elite]

I'll soon have a website where I'll be posting various ruminations on Shadowrun ideas (among many other things) but for now I thought I'd kick off another one here.

California.

Assuming California doesn't sit in a long period of status quo (and it's hard for me to imagine it would), it has the potential for rapid and chaotic change. What sorts of ideas and brainstorming do you get when thinking about what could become of SR California?

My own brainstorming tends to see 2060s California as sort of the Balkans of North America. A place of shifting borders, warlord governments, and extreme political activism. But much like Lebanon during its 1975-1990 civil war, California is not a poor area of the world, and benefits greatly from a wealthy and intellectual class. I imagine a complex and ever-changing web of extreme political organizations backed by corporate or national powers. Saito's regime would be an example of this, but I don't see his regime having a lasting power, especially if his corporate backers become distracted elsewhere, and I could imagine a new "face" establishing power in the region, as well as in other regions of California (such as the Pueblo in Los Angeles).

[DrJest]

You know what the California situation makes me think of? Risk. You know, the boardgame.

If you've ever played the big, multiplayer Risk games, you know that there's a kind of chaotic status quo goes on. Bear with me, this does make sense. It's like, Player A grabs one territory off Player B; B does the same to C; C to D, D to E, then E does it to A, and everybody's back where they started just one move over to the left.

[Tanka]

It becomes CalFree and eventually ends up being ruled by a split-off ex-military Japanese man.

No, really. Read California Free State.

[Demonseed Elite]

Hah, I agree there. When I said "status quo", I meant pretty much that the structure that exists now doesn't change, as opposed to the idea that it could remain in a sort of chaotic status quo (which is very possible). And I think the Risk analogy is pretty appropriate, since given the resources and wealth available in California (what, it's the world's 7th largest economy right now, by itself?) it makes it a tempting target for many, many powerful entities.

Tanka, I know that part. I'm talking about "what's next?" :P

[Tanka]

Either the real Japanese fleet comes and kicks Saito's ass or Saito continues his reign, slowly gaining territory with the parts of CalFree that are ignoring him.

[Demonseed Elite]

I don't really see the Japanese fleet coming in. Japan, courtesy of Halley's Comet, has its own very significant problems to deal with. And given that the new Japanese emperor isn't as directly in the back pocket of the megacorporations as the past ones have been, I see Japan's motivation to return to California as fairly weak in the near future.

I also don't really see Saito's regime lasting. As has been pointed out often on this board here, Saito's forces are spread pretty thin and he's starting to run into problems (like the "runner army" foiling his actions in Chico-Oroville mentioned in SOTA:64). Like the Balkans analogy, I tend to see Saito as someone who rose to power quickly, maintained power through strict control and military influence for awhile, and eventually falls apart, likely to be replaced with the next most powerful bloc.

[Eyeless Blond]

I just want to see someone give Tir Tangrine a swift kick in the face. I just finished reading through the sourcebook, and the whole country's origin story sounds so much like a Mary Sue fanfic that I just want to rip it out by the throat and set it on fire.

I also find it odd and stupid that a state with three of the biggest ports in the western himisphere and one of the largest economies in the world didn't have a navy to speak of, and couldn't manage to raise their own army when the UCAS screwed them over, but that part's at least palatable.

Anyway, other than those tiny little objections, I love the California region in SR, for the exact reason you describe. Even more than that, though, I happen to love the People's University of Berkeley (and not just because I graduated from UC Berkeley :)). Sure, you have constantly shifting power players and territories, which is all well and good, but so few places in SR have the little guy fighting back and actually making a difference. It's great to see something like that.

[DrJest]

Tir Tairngire. Mary Sue. AHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHHAA!

Cheers, EB, that image is going to stay with me for ages.

Of course, given the prediliction of most Mary Sue fanfic, that begs the question - who's gonna get shagged?

[Eyeless Blond]

I dunno, but Calfree, the UCAS, the NAN, and basically everyone around Tir got themselved screwed. The comm grid I can kinda deal with; the political structure and government rising out of thin air makes sense when you realise that there are a few immortal elves running the show, but how the heck did the elves manage to build up an entire techno-magical army without anyone noticing? Hell, you can't even build a terrorist cell or kill a few dozen people without someone hearing about it and reporting it on the news; how the heck do you train tens of thousands of people into an army that fast without *someone* doing anything to stop you?

[Demonseed Elite]

Well, to be fair, as far as the comparison with terrorist cells, that's not exactly true. I mean, look at Al Qaeda, which basically built itself up over a number of years without anyone doing much of anything serious to stop it. It had been reported on, but was considered of little significance to just about everyone until September 11th, 2001.

Though the Tir military is definitely on a different level. I tend to think it was less that the army was built without anyones' knowledge and more that there wasn't much that could be done about it, at least not on any substantial level. Stopping nations from building armies is hard, especially if you're not willing to totally commit yourself to the effort.

[TeOdio]

Don't forget about Silicon Valley. Ares might try to set up their own little fiefdom (more openly) and agitate Saito's forces. Silicon valley would be a nice feather in CatCo or say Mitsuhama's cap. That could lead to an actual military clash between Ares Arms and Saito's forces with some gentle nudging by Seraphim agents or Yak pressure.
:nuyen: :nuyen: :nuyen:

[Critias]

[Kagetenshi]

My personal vote is that the place continue to devolve into anarchy as the establishments duke it out, the Northern Crescent folk begin a campaign to slaughter all Elves (and metahumans in general), Saitoh reigns supreme for a few years until he is utterly smashed through overextension, and the entire place becomes a wasteland.

~J

[Eyeless Blond]

Nah, that's how Southern California should become. With Peublo coming from the east and the Aztecs from the south, combined with whatever the heck's going on in the desert (which should be slowly taking over parts of LA) I can easily see that whole region dissolving into chaos.

I honestly don't see northern California getting all anti-metahuman, mostly to piss off Saito. I *do* see them being primarily anti-elf, though, and keeping their anti-corporate outlook on things too. Saito's days are numbered, I agree, and when he finally goes down the Bay's gonna be a real interesting place, as everyone around tries to gobble up the Berkeley/Oakland/Walnut Creek areas, with the Japanicorps trying to do damage control in Frisco.

[Kagetenshi]

They're already very anti-Elf and nontrivially anti-meta in many places.

~J

[hahnsoo]

I envision Saito overextending himself, then having to fall back and consolidate his power around San Francisco. The Tir/California problem is problematic, with Hestaby smack in the middle of it all... Maybe the more progressive members of the Tir influence it to do something unusual: They engage in peaceful free trade to solve their economic difficulties. Is that too hard to ask? :) I can see them doing coastal trades with LA/PCC, with the pirates (YAR!) raiding their shipments every once in a while.

Or perhaps the Tir decides to help out the resistance, and eventually forms a Metahuman Nation that they consider a colony, where they ship off all their undesirables (i.e. the poor, the non-elves) in the spirit of enterprise ("Go West, young man"). It can lead to some interesting "Europe/American Colony"-like interactions.

As far as corporations, there are several corporate strongholds throughout southern California along the Mojave desert, not much more than military bases. I can see those turning into City-States. Meanwhile, water-running is still important, especially SoCal.

Ute Nation probably has something to say about all this chaos... they've been rather "quiet" as a CalFree neighbor.

Since most of the southeast border of California is the Mojave desert, I'm wondering if any trouble will start up from there. Maybe the Anasazi and other tribes band together to try to form their own nation out of the lands of SoCal.

And I doubt the PCC will be able to hold onto LA for long. Unless they brew up a war with Aztlan.

[mfb]

nocal was anti-meta already. back when Saito was still just a colonel, Chico-Oroville was as bad as San Fran for anti-meta sentiment. nowadays they're eating a lot of crow, since they just got their asses saved by a bunch of metahuman runners ("every runner in the northwest" is bound to include quite a few).

you know what would be fun? if cali sparked off a big national war.

[Guest_Crimsondude 2.0_*]

Or if someone rose to power who could mobilize a truly national army.

[Bigity]

Speaking of Saito, was he the original second-in-command of the Japanese forces in San Fran?

Or just the commander who stayed behind? I know there is reference to some elf that kills the original CO, but how far down the ladder was Saito before the Japanese pull-out?

I'm guessing he was just a mid-level officer with no chance of advancement, hence the break from Japan.

[mfb]

he was a colonel, as i recall. in the US, colonels are usually in charge of anywhere from 500 to 1000 troops, if they're in a command slot, or they're XO to a general. i'd estimate that there might have been two other Japanese colonels in San Fran. he wasn't second in command, probably, but he was pretty damn high up on the ladder.

[Kagetenshi]

Really? I'd thought he was mid-high, but nothing terribly exciting.

~J

[Bigity]

Yup, sounds about right.

The jump from full-bird to general is still pretty damn big though, and alot of colonels never make it.

[Guest_Crimsondude 2.0_*]

Well, IIRC he was the highest-ranking officer still around at the time.

And he made himself the Protector-General of California.

[Guest_Crimsondude 2.0_*]

[hermit]

You all forget one very important player in CalFree:

Hestaby.

I would expect everyone's favourite orange dragon lady to do more than sit by idly while the land around her devolved into anarchy. In fact, I would expect her to partake actively in that effort, supporting whatever faction will sell themselves to her in exchange for having a Great fight on their side. And who could that be? My money would be on the many (and disorgainsed) metahuman cells. Not only do then not have much power themselves (and thus are in a very weak negotiating position), helping them against Saito and the NC folks would also further Hestaby's image as a champion of the week, poor, tusked and pointy-eared.

As for a big war over the spoils of california ... maybe something like what is, IRL, going on in the Democratic Republic of Congo? With the country basically having no government to speak of, and a lot of nice things open for grabs, all neigbhbours might feel tempted to grab a bite. Not Tir, maybe, since Hestaby can always veto their plans in the council, but I'd expect Aztlan to make a move on LA (getting itself into a war with Pueblo, but with their recent setbacks, I bet the Azzie generals are very keen to get a success, if only to not appear like a sitting duck themselves). Also, Pueblo will not only defend themselves against the Azzies, but might feel tempted to move northwards too, in case someone is nice enough to squash Saito. Ute, seeing everyone seems to get a piece of California, might want to grab some for themselves, too. Maybe they'll support Pueblo against Aztlan, in exchange for territorry. Hell, maybe even Sioux will join with them. Simbabwe did send troops to the DRC, too, and they don't have a common border either!

The UCAS might team up with Ares, the CAS and send "peacekeepers" to the region when Saito collapses. The UCAS and CAS aren't the US, but they can still bite, and Ares backing them would certainly make them a force Saito cannot dispose of easily. Of course, Japan's Megas are backing Saito, but maybe some settlement can be negotiated, something along the lines of a free trade zone in SanFran. And then ... sayonara, Saito-san.

Whom I don't see joining is the SSC (busy with Tshimshian), Tshimshian (busy with SSC), Algokintan and Athabascan, and TPA. But that's it.

California could become a pan-American war. More than the balance of power within California could shift then.

I kind of have a feeling this could become very, very big.