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Smokeskin
QUOTE (Austere Emancipator)
That depends on what you're hitting with it. If you only need to destroy a lightly fortified surface structure, then (assuming it reaches the target intact, at the same velocity and the same mass) rock and tungsten probably would achieve about the same results. If you need to penetrate 100 meters of rock of 50 meters of concrete, though, shape, toughness, etc. certainly matter. If the projectile completely breaks up on impact, it will not penetrate nearly as far as the "tungsten telephone pole" style projectile mentioned above.

I don't think you can apply regular understandings of penetration to this situation.

My understanding is that when objects collide at orbital speeds (like a thor shot hitting the earth, or a tank, or whatever), something really violent happens at the front end. Matter is compressed so thoroughly and rapidly that extreme amounts of heat is generated - it vaporizes (or turns to plasma). The explosive force from this is A LOT "harder" than tungsten - the rest of the tungsten rod actually impacts the "blast wave" of plasma rather than the ground itself.

(why doesn't it all go up when it hits a speck in the atmosphere then? This probably generates a plasma explosion too, but it will rapidly expand and cool to the point where it won't have any significant blast wave - in contrast to a ground impact, where the plasma on one side has the ground, on the other a projectile compressing it at orbital velocity)

Austere Emancipator
I am assuming all the scifi writers who have theorized the use of long rods or poles of very hard materials like tungsten had a reason for doing so.

If you did assume that the whole projectile immediately disintegrates on impact and all of the kinetic energy it had translates perfectly into the explosion which causes all the damage, to penetrate even 100 meters of solid rock you'd need an object weighing tens of thousands of tonnes at a velocity of 9km/s. Not something you'd routinely drop out of a satellite. A tungsten telephone pole, for example, would only weigh a few tonnes.
LilithTaveril
I know I backed out, but may I make a suggestion: Shape-charged explosions. Kinetic energy and direction might turn the telephone pole into a giant shape-charged explosive when it hits.
Smokeskin
If you just want it to function like a penetrator, a tungsten pole probably won't do the the trick. If you drop it from orbit, it won't hit vertically. Unless you slow it down significantly or somehow give at VERY violent shove downwards, it will hit at shallow angle. Even if we got it to hit at 45 degrees, that means 144 meters of rock to go through. Momentum preservation then gives us something like a 30 meter tungsten pole required, provided that the pole doesn't deform at all against the ground (which is probably an unrealistic assumption). That's a really long pole. Even then you're just delivering some very hot tungsten at 0 speed - that's localized damage to the bunker. And that's provided you even hit where you're supposed too. We're talking an extremely fast projectile travelling 1000s of kms with a lot of inertia and very little maneuverability trying to hit an exact spot on the ground at a shallow angle, then going through over 100 meters of rock and still being on target. Plus if it overpenetrates, then your superheated rod of tungsten just passes right through the bunker with minimum damage, just like shaped charge warheads do against APCs.

The idea just isn't feasible. You can't get that deep, and you don't do any damage anway. Penetrators isn't the way to go (except to carry explosives underground ofc).
Smokeskin
QUOTE (LilithTaveril)
I know I backed out, but may I make a suggestion: Shape-charged explosions. Kinetic energy and direction might turn the telephone pole into a giant shape-charged explosive when it hits.

You need a rod-configuration to get effective atmospheric penetration. The shaped-charge design doesn't allow for that.

I doubt shaped-charges remain effective at these scales.

Perhaps most importantly, at these velocities the weight itself would carry more kinetic energy than it has explosive energy. Blowing it up (where you lose a lot of the energy being blown in other directions than down) just means less penetration.
Ed_209a
I think Lilith meant the impact would turn the Thor shot into something like the bolt of molten metal a shaped charge produces, not a Thor round with a shaped charge warhead.
LilithTaveril
Assuming it's not molten metal to begin with by that point. By the time it hits the ground, it'll be covered in plasma and leaving a massive firey trail behind it. Part of the reason orbital railguns would be useless against things in atmosphere. Even, possibly, ICBMs.
Austere Emancipator
QUOTE (Smokeskin)
Momentum preservation then gives us something like a 30 meter tungsten pole required, provided that the pole doesn't deform at all against the ground (which is probably an unrealistic assumption).

How did you calculate that? 3-meter-long projectiles at a fraction of the velocity can penetrate more than 10 meters of rock.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
And that's provided you even hit where you're supposed too.

If you can't hit an immobile, relatively large target, then there's very little point to the whole thing. You can just generally blow shit up far more efficiently with other weapon systems.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
Plus if it overpenetrates, then your superheated rod of tungsten just passes right through the bunker with minimum damage, just like shaped charge warheads do against APCs.

Of course it "overpenetrates". I wouldn't call a several-meter-wide crater "minimum damage", though. Seen many APCs that have taken minimum damage from large caliber shaped charges, BTW? Seems to me with most HEAT weapons they have a tendency to burst into flames and get the insides peppered with shrapnel.

I rather not speculate with the impact physics turning a tungsten pole into a plastic slug and that functioning like an explosively formed projectile against the target. That's a bit too "what if" even for me.
Smokeskin
QUOTE
QUOTE (Smokeskin)
Momentum preservation then gives us something like a 30 meter tungsten pole required, provided that the pole doesn't deform at all against the ground (which is probably an unrealistic assumption).

How did you calculate that? 3-meter-long projectiles at a fraction of the velocity can penetrate more than 10 meters of rock.


It's 3 meters to 14.4 meters, not 10 meters (you're forgetting the angle I think).

It's simple momentum approximation. It's effectively a blunt object, 5 times heavier than rock, so it'll penetrate 5 times it's length if it is going fast enough. You don't really get much variance in penetration depth with speeds once you reach speeds where the impacting materials are brittle.

QUOTE
If you can't hit an immobile, relatively large target, then there's very little point to the whole thing. You can just generally blow shit up far more efficiently with other weapon systems.


This is a 30 meter tungsten pole traveling at what, 10 km/s, weighing many tons, that is very hard, probably impossible, to maneauver in any meaningful way. It is dropped from orbit, have to travel through the atmosphere, impact with the ground at an angle, and travel 144 meters underground through largely unknown substrate, and still be on target. The combination of size, weight and speed of the pole, the depth of the target, the angle of attack and zero area effect at depth means that there probably isn't any point. And AFAIK the only weapon able to take out such a bunker is a nuclear weapon, and probably a very large one at that. I don't think any weapon system in existence is able to penetrate deeper than 30 meters, from there on you need explosives.

QUOTE
QUOTE (Smokeskin)
Plus if it overpenetrates, then your superheated rod of tungsten just passes right through the bunker with minimum damage, just like shaped charge warheads do against APCs.

Of course it "overpenetrates". I wouldn't call a several-meter-wide crater "minimum damage", though. Seen many APCs that have taken minimum damage from large caliber shaped charges, BTW? Seems to me with most HEAT weapons they have a tendency to burst into flames and get the insides peppered with shrapnel.


Ever seen that sort of wavy metal sheets/grids they mount on APCs? It's to protect against shaped-charges. The missile hit that and explodes, so the explosion doesn't happen against the skin of the APC, which is the main threat. The metal jet then hits the skin, having to travel through just 2.5-4 cms of metal, hardly disperses, and it pretty much just jets through the cabin and out again. Very little fragmentation and heat inside, high probabality of everyone walking out of there alive.

If the jet on the other hand goes through the thick armour of a tank, it disperses and sprays a lot of molten stuff inside the cabin, killing the crew fragments and heat (but generally doing only little damage to the tank's structure unless the ammo blows up).

A tungsten rod might well be somewhat more violent than an APC penetration, but it wouldn't disperse (if it did, it would never reach any appriciable depth). At best you'd kill the guys in the room it goes through and damage sensitive equipment. The bunker itself and the rest of the inhabitants would likely go unharmed. That's hardly a bunker buster.
LilithTaveril
Smokeskin, except, you might want to know this:

QUOTE
Project Thor
Project Thor is an idea for a weapons system that launches kinetic projectiles from Earth orbit to damage targets on the ground. It is said that, at some point in history, the concept originated in a classified study for the United States Air Force in the 1950s.

The most described system is 'an orbiting tungsten telephone pole with small fins and a computer in the back for guidance.' The weapon can be down-scaled as small as several metres long, an orbiting "crowbar" rather than a pole.

The time between deorbiting and impact would only be a few minutes, and depending on the orbits and positions in the orbits, the system would have a world-wide range. There is no requirement to deploy missiles, aircraft or other vehicles. Although the SALT II treaty (1979) prohibited the deployment of orbital weapons of mass destruction, it did not prohibit the deployment of conventional weapons.

The weapon inflicts damage because it moves at orbital velocities, at least 9 kilometres per second. The amount of energy released by the largest version when it hits the ground is roughly comparable to a small nuclear weapon or very large conventional bomb. Smaller weapons can deliver measured amounts of energy as small as a 500 lb conventional bomb.

The "pole" shape is optimal because it enhances reentry and maximises the device's ability to penetrate hard or buried targets. The larger device is expected to be quite good at penetrating deeply buried bunkers and other command and control targets. The smaller "crowbar" size might be employed for anti-armor, anti-aircraft, anti-satellite and possibly anti-personnel use.

The weapon would be very hard to defend against. It has a very high closing velocity and a small radar cross-section. Launch is difficult to detect. Any infra-red launch signature occurs in orbit, at no fixed position. The infra-red launch signature also has a small magnitude compared to a ballistic missile launch. One drawback of the system is that the weapon's sensors would almost certainly be blind during reentry due to the plasma sheath that would develop ahead of it, so a mobile target could be difficult to hit if it performed any unexpected maneuvering.

While the larger version might be individually launched, the smaller versions would be launched from "pods" or "carriers" that contained several missiles.

It was most recently popularised by Jerry Pournelle, on his website, under the title "Project Thor."


And this:

QUOTE
Rods from God
Rods from God are a space-based kinetic energy weapon that has been discussed since the early 1980s.

The system would consist of tandem satellites, one serving as a communications platform, the other carrying a number of tungsten rods, each up to 20 feet in length and 1 foot in diameter. These rods, which could be dropped on a target with as little as 15 minutes notice, would enter the Earth's atmosphere at a speed of 36,000 feet per second - about as fast as a meteor. Upon impact, the rod would be capable of producing all the effects of an earth-penetrating nuclear weapon, without any of the radioactive fallout. This type of weapon relies on kinetic energy, rather than high-explosives, to generate destructive force.

They would conceivably be particularly well adapted to penetrate hardened targets, such as underground nuclear facilities.

There are major difficulties involved. One of them is where to position the rods. They need to be high enough to deliver enough energy upon impact, but not so high that they vaporize in Earth's atmosphere. The other difficulty is the number of satellites that would be required to cover a material portion of the Earth.


The source is on page three, in a post directed at me.
Smokeskin
Lilith, if you read back a bit, you'll see that I thought that these things generate very large explosions when they hit. Which corresponds nicely to what you quoted, mentioning nuclear weapon effects.

What I'm arguing against is these things functioning as penetrators (as in the rod actually going down there) against bunkers 100 meters down.
LilithTaveril
Meh. I'm merely mentioning, at this point, that the total kinetic energy potentially creates shape-charged nukes. When it hits and the tungsten is pretty much destroyed, the potential remaining kinetic energy, combined with the already-existing plasma (which should have shaped the front of the pole to be something closer to a spike anyway) could easily potentially be driven downward, generating the necessary damage through incineration combined with force. If the shaping I mentioned has happened, then quite possibly you have the world's largest spike launcher.
Austere Emancipator
QUOTE (Smokeskin)
It's 3 meters to 14.4 meters, not 10 meters (you're forgetting the angle I think).

I'm not forgetting about the angle. I'm just saying that a 3-meter long metal cylinder with crap tacked on an a hollow center filled with explosives moving at a velocity a fraction of what we're talking about will penetrate more than 6 meters of reinforced concrete, more than 30 meters of packed earth, and presumable well in excess of 10 meters of rock. That a tungsten pole-shape moving dozens of times as fast would provide no real advantage in length/penetration ratio seems a bit suspect.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
This is a 30 meter tungsten pole traveling at what, 10 km/s, weighing many tons [...]

If it were a 30-meter pole, it would weigh tens or hundreds of tonnes. It is not, however.

And if you can't hit anything with it, and it has very limited effect over area, along with very limited penetration or hard targets, then you're right: there is no point.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
And AFAIK the only weapon able to take out such a bunker is a nuclear weapon, and probably a very large one at that. I don't think any weapon system in existence is able to penetrate deeper than 30 meters, from there on you need explosives.

Of rock, 30 meters is about as far as we can go with conventional weapons, that is true. The HyStrike missile should penetrate up to 12 meters of reinforced concrete, while other upcoming kinetic kill missiles (like SHOC) are going for up 20 meters, which would translate to around 30 meters of solid rock. So people will keep building heavily reinforced bunkers. And someone will want to penetrate through to them, without using nuclear weapons. Which would explain the existence of Thors, if they worked in the way I'm thinking they might work.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
The metal jet then hits the skin, having to travel through just 2.5-4 cms of metal, hardly disperses, and it pretty much just jets through the cabin and out again.

I've seen that in an M1A1/A2, with an advanced type of RPG-7 warhead that was designed to penetrate deeply without dispersing the metal projectile. The few AFVs I've seen that've been hit by RPG-7s have all been "killed".

Anyhow, bunker buster bombs right now don't have a large area effect when they penetrate deeply, and they're creating all these new kinetic kill missiles for exactly this sort of attack. I assume that after $10 billion in research over 10+ years they have a clue what they're doing.
Austere Emancipator
QUOTE (LilithTaveril)
I'm merely mentioning, at this point, that the total kinetic energy potentially creates shape-charged nukes.

Not unless you're dropping a fricken aircraft carrier out of orbit. To be the energy equivalent of even a tiny 10kT warhead, you'd need a 1,000,000kg (one thousand tonne) object at 9,000m/s. That's a tungsten pole 1 meter in diameter and 67 meters long, or 10 space shuttles.
Smokeskin
@Lilith: I actually think that more like the opposite happens - the explosion happens at the front, trying to send the rod backwards again. Like with meteor strikes, where you sometimes see pieces of it actually getting hurled back out into space. Basically I don't think the rod has any chance of making it through the "explosion".

@Austere
The length-to-penetration ratio doesn't alter significantly with higher velocity. This is a widely accepted approximation AFAIK.

In the army I was taught that simple HEATs weren't effective at killing lightly armored vehicles. Many were modified with some sort of trailing "plug" that would knock a piece of light armour into killing fragments, or some had 2-stage detonations that effectively meant you got an explosion in the cabin. Basically the jet alone won't kill the crew inside light armor. I don't know how accurate that is, misconceptions about weapon effects are pretty common, even among so-called professionals.

AFAIK the principle of bunker busters are to get explosives into or as close to the bunker as possible. Kinetic kill of bunkers, I just don't see how a penetrator going through a bunker would do anything except some very localized damage.

Getting a 10 kiloton explosion is rather a lot to ask for. If you impact a 1-ton rod at 9 km/s, that kinetic energy is equivalt to 10 tons on TNT. That's still one big bomb. If you effectively get a groundbased detonation, that's very unimpressive. But if you effectively get an underground detonation, that could be very powerful.
Austere Emancipator
If what you're saying is true then, again, the whole weapon is pointless. Inaccurate, inefficient, ineffective. And all those other people theorizing about the weapon, in the US DoD and elsewhere, and all those scifi writers, are wrong.
LilithTaveril
QUOTE (Austere Emancipator)
QUOTE (LilithTaveril)
I'm merely mentioning, at this point, that the total kinetic energy potentially creates shape-charged nukes.

Not unless you're dropping a fricken aircraft carrier out of orbit. To be the energy equivalent of even a tiny 10kT warhead, you'd need a 1,000,000kg (one thousand tonne) object at 9,000m/s. That's a tungsten pole 1 meter in diameter and 67 meters long, or 10 space shuttles.

How about one that's twenty feet (6.1 meters) in length, one foot (0.3 meters) in diameter, and travelling 36,000 feet (10,972.8 meters) per second? Would that do the job?

Keep in mind the objective is to generate a "small" nuclear explosion.
Smokeskin
QUOTE (Austere Emancipator)
If what you're saying is true then, again, the whole weapon is pointless. Inaccurate, inefficient, ineffective. And all those other people theorizing about the weapon, in the US DoD and elsewhere, and all those scifi writers, are wrong.

No, that doesn't mean the whole weapon is pointless.

You're arguing that you can get a bunker kill at 100 meters by ramming a pole down there. It is obvious that if you ram a pole that deep, it can't be wasting much energy except to go down, otherwise it wouldn't go that deep. So you just get an area of effect equal to the width of your pole. That won't do much damage, and I strongly doubt you'll be able to hit precisely at that depth anyway (precision is a big problem if you have very small area of effect). It also goes against established penetration approximations that you can go that deep without unrealistically wrong poles.

Because I don't find your opinion about the effects of the weapon correct does not mean that the whole weapon is pointless.

I think it will hit the ground very, very hard, and generate an explosion-like effect much above what is possible with conventional weapons. The sources quoted mention nuclear weapon equivalent effects. The scifi I've seen these weapons used have them generating massive explosions. Just drilling deep underground I've never heard off.

@Lilith: The pole you're mentioning should weigh in at over 8 tons and carry kinetic energy equivalent to about 100 tons of TNT. That's still just 0.1 kilotons, small by nuke standards, but extremely powerful by any other.
Austere Emancipator
QUOTE (LilithTaveril)
Would that do the job?

Not by a long shot. Assuming perfect conversion from kinetic to explosive energies at the moment of impact, a tungsten pole of that size would be equivalent to ~119 tonnes of TNT -- 1/1000th the size of the smallest common nuclear warheads.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
That won't do much damage, and I strongly doubt you'll be able to hit precisely at that depth anyway (precision is a big problem if you have very small area of effect).

Assuming this is true, what do you believe is the design principle behind the HyStrike and SHOC missiles? Is the US DoD burning hundreds of millions on these projects just because they know fuck all about bunkerbusting?

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
The sources quoted mention nuclear weapon equivalent effects.

With the sizes of projectiles discussed here, that is patently false. A tungsten telephone pole in the 8-15km/s velocity range simply cannot create an explosive effect comparable to even the smallest nuclear warheads ever made. It will not generate massive amounts of energy out of nothing. Because of this, with an "explosion" alone (assuming such occurred on the scale you and LilithTaveril are suggesting), such a weapon would not be at all useful against hardened targets -- it would penetrate concrete, rock and earth much worse than the Mach 4 kinetic missiles I mentioned above.
Shrike30
QUOTE (Smokeskin)
@Lilith: I actually think that more like the opposite happens - the explosion happens at the front, trying to send the rod backwards again. Like with meteor strikes, where you sometimes see pieces of it actually getting hurled back out into space. Basically I don't think the rod has any chance of making it through the "explosion".

Since the object coming down is A) designed to penetrate and B) much harder than the surface it's striking and C) the part of the equation carrying all of the kinetic energy, I don't think you're going to see any meaningful "tossback" of the object as it turns that kinetic energy into heat. Sure, when meteors hit, there's some chunks that are thrown back up into the atmosphere... those are parts that, after the whole thing has shattered and scattered, have essentially ricocheted back upwards. The entire meteor does not hit the earth like a pool ball hitting the bumper and simply bounce straight away from it.

Unlike meteors, the poles we're talking about are specifically designed to withstand the heat of atmospheric re-entry and the impact of striking the ground at 9k+ a second. These things travel faster than the blast wave of an explosion can... explosives would be wasted mass in terms of total penetration and output, since the extra mass of tungsten at that velocity is going to produce a lot more energy than a similar volume of explosives.

Assume for a second that better minds than us have determined, through modelling and all that good stuff, that they can get this rod to penetrate to the bunker (since honestly, this is a silly discussion if it can't).

The HEAT weapon example actually applies to this quite well. Let's assume, for the sake of minimal actual "weapon" damage, that the tungsten rod punches clean through the bunker and doesn't shed any significant amount of speed or mass (as shrapnel) on the way through.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
If the jet on the other hand goes through the thick armour of a tank, it disperses and sprays a lot of molten stuff inside the cabin, killing the crew fragments and heat (but generally doing only little damage to the tank's structure unless the ammo blows up).


The jet isn't the only thing they're trying to disperse all over the inside of the tank... all of the armor that was displaced as the jet came through has to go somewhere, too. Another decently applicable example would be something like an APFSDS tank shell, where the penetrator could very well exit the far side of the vehicle it has impacted.

On the way through the armor, all of that kinetic energy it's dumping (and all of that thermal energy from the HEAT jet) is being applied to the material it's in the process of displacing. What you end up with is a lot of hot fragments of armor spall whipping around inside of the tank, tearing up everything they hit.

Now imagine that your "tank" is a bunker. You've got however many tens of meters of dirt/rock/concrete "armor" between the compartment and the tungsten rod that you've just slammed down into the target. Even if the rod cleanly holes the bunker and overpenetrates it, a great deal of the stuff that it passed through and superheated into liquid metals, superhot gasses, or plasma due to the sheer amount of energy dumped into it is going to blow out into the inside of that bunker from the entry point in a much less directed (but still incredibly high-velocity) manner from the entry point, damaging anyone and anything that it strikes through a combination of overpressure, incredible heat, and physical impact.
Butterblume
QUOTE (Austere Emancipator)
Assuming perfect conversion from kinetic to explosive energies at the moment of impact, a tungsten pole of that size would be equivalent to ~119 tonnes of TNT -- 1/1000th the size of the smallest common nuclear warheads.

It was said a thor shot is comparable with a tactical nuclear warhead. I was thinking in the the range of 1 kiloton and up, but a simple wikipedia search turned one up, the W48, with a yield of 0,072 kilotons. With about a 1000 units build, it imo qualifies as common.

0,119 kilotons*1000=119 kilotons is iirc somewhere in the range for the smallest common fusion bomb. Perhaps you mixed them up.
Smokeskin
@Austere: I think you added a kilo too much to some numbers, 0,1 kiloton sounds about right for tactical nukes. A tungsten pole will carry that amount of kinetic energy, so it doesn't have to generate it from nothing.

The HyStrike missile project mention going through 5-10 meters of concrete. That is very different from hitting something through 144 meters of rock. These missiles are probably also not blunt penetrators, like a tungsten pole dropping from orbit will be.

@Shrike: These whole discussion is about whether or not a tungsten rod will just penetrate, so you can't just assume that it will. And the "better minds than us" all seem to list massive explosions from the bigger thor shots, so the reasonable thing to assume is that it won't penetrate, but rather that the pressures at impact will generate massive heat that turns stuff into plasma and yada yada big explosion. Probably not just a ground detonation explosion, if the pressure takes just 3/1,000th of a second to build up you're at the max depths of current conventional penetrators, and you have the energy of a tactical nuke instead of just 300 kg of conventional explosives - and I have no idea how that is going to turn out, how much is heat, how much is shockwave, and if the massive momentum of the pole will direct much of it downwards.

Austere Emancipator
All W48s have been dismantled. The massive majority of all warheads in use by all countries for all purposes are in the 100kt+ range for yield -- this includes all warheads currently active in the US stockpile, no matter how "tactical".

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
The HyStrike missile project mention going through 5-10 meters of concrete. That is very different from hitting something through 144 meters of rock. These missiles are probably also not blunt penetrators, like a tungsten pole dropping from orbit will be.

The SHOC will penetrate 10-17 meters of concrete, and probably 100+ meters of packed earth. Once it's impacted the right spot, it's not likely the projectile will swerve way off target. And yes, they are blunt penetrators -- the HyStrike "warhead" is a rather thick tungsten rod with a slightly rounded head.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
massive explosions from the bigger thor shots

You could get a pretty massive explosion, as that term is commonly used, from only a fraction of the kinetic energy of the bigger versions of such bombardment devices mentioned in some of the referenced articles. All those articles also mention hard target penetration as the main purpose of such a device, and the bit about Project Thor in particular mentions that the tungsten pole shape is best for penetrating deep through hardened materials -- which would make no sense if all you'd be looking for is a big ass explosion to shake things about.
Shrike30
QUOTE (Smokeskin)
@Shrike: These whole discussion is about whether or not a tungsten rod will just penetrate, so you can't just assume that it will.

The whole point of a Thor shot is to penetrate (and be effective, having penetrated). You might as well just drop a nuclear warhead out of space, treaties notwithstanding, if you want massive devastation.

If the Thor shot can't penetrate, there's no reason to use 'em at all. My "better minds" reference was simply intended to point out that while the "conventional wisdom" says a material will only penetrate to X times it's length when fired so fast things become brittle (a horrible paraphrase of what you said earlier), lots of scientist-types seem to think these weapons might actually be a little more effective than that at getting to the target.

A point that was bandied about earlier was that if the weapon were capable of penetrating that far, it wouldn't actually do any damage. That was what most of my post was directed at addressing, not the actual penetration issue.
Smokeskin
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb
A 0.3 kiloton nuclear bomb.

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nucl...ng-weapons.html
"For a penetration depth of three meters and a yield of 0.3 kilotons, the B61-11 could destroy a target buried under roughly 15 meters of hard rock or concrete".
This is not far from the effect you expect to get from a tungsten pole dropping from space, referring to the calculations on the kinetic energies carried above.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/sys...ns/hystrike.htm
"This phenomenon makes hypersonic weapons well suited to attacking hardened or deeply buried targets such as command bunkers or biological-weapon storage facilities."
"Penetration of 18-36 feet of concrete"

Compare 5-10 meters of this weapon, apparently well suited to attack deep, hardened targets, to the 15 meters of the above-mentioned method.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_bunker_buster
"Rocket sled testing at Eglin Air Force Base has demonstrated penetrations of 100 to 150 feet in concrete when traveling at 4,000 ft/s. [...] Variation in the speed of the penetrator can either cause it to be vaporized on impact (in the case of traveling too fast), or to not penetrate far enough (in the case of traveling too slow). An approximation for the penetration depth is obtained with an impact depth formula derived by Sir Issac Newton."
Seems to indicate that vaporisation in fact does occur when hitting concrete at high speeds. Also seems to indicate that penetration depth approximation was experimentally verified and very long penetrators were used.

I think that you guys are reading "Thors penetrate deep, hardened targets" and then you're guessing that that must mean much deeper than is actually the case, and to make that fit you have to twist the effects into something they're not. Firing a rod of anything a 100 meters underground is probably just impossible without the penetrator vaporizing. If there is any non-nuclear solution to hitting something that deep it could be to ram something so hard that the vaporization from the impact generates a powerful enough "explosion" to destroy the bunker.
Frag-o Delux
How would the impact of this device effect people and material in the bunker without penetrating it at all?

During Vietnam with Operation Linebacker the B52's dropped huge ass bombs all over that country. The shock waves alone were killing people. And Vietnamese soldiers were talking about the shock waved sucking the air out of their deeply buried forts. Enough so, it would sometimes suck the air out of their lungs and knock them out.

So with that kind of energy being delivered to the hardened bunker or just to the stone above it has to do something to the people inside, even the materials/equipment inside.
Austere Emancipator
The different versions of the B61 can be set to have a yield of anything from 0.3 to 350 kilotonnes, as you know if you read those articles. I assume the 0.3kt is achieved with the fission device alone, so that either the fusion fuel is removed or somehow deactivated. This is the equivalent of firing a 155mm HE with a fuze only and the secondary explosive removed -- and saying that the B61 is a 0.3kt nuclear bomb is like saying the M107 HE 155mm projectile has an explosive payload of ~100 grains.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
Compare 5-10 meters of this weapon, apparently well suited to attack deep, hardened targets, to the 15 meters of the above-mentioned method.

And compare that to the 10-17 meter values given for the SHOC.

The testing in the NBB article is for penetration with a nuclear weapon casing, which has a set of problems not present with a simple, solid penetrator. 100 meters may have been quite a bit more than would be expected -- but if the Thor provides no real advantage over a SHOC-like weapon against hardened targets, while being orders of magnitude more expensive, vulnerable, and difficult to maintain, then I'd still say it's a pointless weapon.

QUOTE (Smokeskin)
If there is any non-nuclear solution to hitting something that deep it could be to ram something so hard that the vaporization from the impact generates a powerful enough "explosion" to destroy the bunker.

If the projectile vaporizes on impact, it will achieve extremely limited penetration with kinetic energy alone. It does not have enough energy to create an explosion capable of destroying hardened targets any better than a kinetic kill cruise missile -- even if there was a perfect translation of kinetic energy to pressure and heat instantaneously on impact. How, then, would it achieve this amazing bunkerbusting feat?
SL James
QUOTE (Austere Emancipator)
QUOTE (LilithTaveril)
I'm merely mentioning, at this point, that the total kinetic energy potentially creates shape-charged nukes.

Not unless you're dropping a fricken aircraft carrier out of orbit. To be the energy equivalent of even a tiny 10kT warhead, you'd need a 1,000,000kg (one thousand tonne) object at 9,000m/s. That's a tungsten pole 1 meter in diameter and 67 meters long, or 10 space shuttles.

Good lord. I can't even begin to imagine the difficulty and cost of creating such a beast.
Lagomorph
While I think that no one here questions the penetrative ability of a tungsten rod dropped/guided from space, I think that maybe 100 meters is possibly alittle farfetched.

How many bunkers are actually 100 meters underground? In SR or RL, what is the Average depth of a bunker? It seems like 100 meters would require the center of a decent sized hill or in a volcano like an evil genius.
SL James
Well, because there are people who will want to building something that is beyond the 10-17m of concrete that a conventional SHOC could penetrate...

Without using a nuclear weapon.
LilithTaveril
Well, I had a post prepared... But Smokeskin pretty much said it already. Oh well.
KarmaInferno
QUOTE (LilithTaveril)
QUOTE (KarmaInferno)
Trajectory, speed, and position as recorded by what? You've already set up a condition where electronic detection won't work.

Are you suggesting you figure all this out by eye?

I was kinda figuring on something you're not with the suggestion of cameras: Trying to locate the missile while it's over open water. Yes, it's certainly possible to anchor cameras in the middle of the ocean, but it's not really worth the money to do it, especially since it's outside of your nation's territory for most of it. By the time the missile is over land and you can use cameras on it, you're probably already in a situation where you don't have a chance to stop it.

Can we assume you've given up on this arguement, then?

QUOTE (LilithTaveril)
The reasoning behind it is simple: You can't jam natural human eyes with ECM.


If you're going to have flying cameras to search out missiles, why do you even have a human up there to press a button?


-karma
LilithTaveril
Karma, you can safely assume that the entire discussion under which those two were said is over.
Kyoto Kid
...ahhh....linear mass drivers.

Built by Aeon Technologies.

From the same company that brought you the Brimstone Magnetic Focused Solar Cannon. devil.gif
Anythingforenoughnuyen
QUOTE (Lagomorph)
While I think that no one here questions the penetrative ability of a tungsten rod dropped/guided from space, I think that maybe 100 meters is possibly alittle farfetched.

How many bunkers are actually 100 meters underground? In SR or RL, what is the Average depth of a bunker? It seems like 100 meters would require the center of a decent sized hill or in a volcano like an evil genius.

It depends on the starting conditions. If the local soil conditions are not very stable, and you are starting from scratch, then even a 10 m depth is an undertaking requiring major effort (and money).

However, there are (as of now, so before the effects of the "resource rush" that help shape the sixth world and would, presumably, dramatically increase these numbers) some 700,000 to 800,000 abandoned mines in the United States alone. So, in the Sixth World, it would not be hard to find underground space, plenty of it even exceeding 300 m to 500 m, and if you wanted to make the effort, substantial space below even 1000 m is would be available. There are even now private endeavors along these lines desinged for the storage of records.

AFE nuyen.gif
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