Shanshu Freeman
Mar 1 2004, 09:54 PM
Maybe this is obvious or stupid, but I suck at the maths. It might even be in a book and I skimmed past it.
At what point is it more effective to default to a skill's linked attribute rather than take the skill at a low level? Is there a rule of thumb, like "don't bother taking skill x(QCK) at 2 if you have quickness 6 or above."
Siege
Mar 1 2004, 10:05 PM
It really depends on the skill  can you eat or otherwise reduce the penalties for defaulting?
Arguably, any time you have a stat that massively outclasses the skill or even the potential of the skill, defaulting is the order of the day.
Athletics leaps to mind  Trolls, samurai and similarly large creatures are better off using their Body, even with the default penalties.
Siege
Dashifen
Mar 1 2004, 10:09 PM
True, but I always consider the lack of ability to use pools when defaulting a big loss. You take a +4 (or +3 or +2) and you can't use pools or you roll a lower number of base dice but augment with pool dice and don't have a TN modification.
When you're acting without the ability for pools, however, it can be basically the same.
RedmondLarry
Mar 1 2004, 10:09 PM
It's impossible to work out the math without making some assumptions about typical TN penalties. Based on my experience, I think 2 is about even, and 3 skill puts you ahead in most situations.
I was really annoyed last night when my character was forced to pick up an Assault Rifle instead of his standard SMG. The weapon he grabbed had no Smartlink, and only 1 recoil comp. The rules say you can't default to a skill or attribute if the TN before defaulting penalties is 8 or higher. I could not AIM (limit on AIM is 1/2 the appropriate skill for that weapon, and I did not have the appropriate skill). I could shoot only one burst each Action, because recoil on a second burst made the TN too high. And once the Target started running I couldn't shoot burst fire at all due to the "Target Running" penalty, I had to switch to Semiauto.
Last night I greatly wished I had Assault Rifles at 3. (I also wished I had more on than a hospital gown. Way too much "Richard Hatch" was exposed.) Even Assault Rifles at 2 would have been more useful than my defaulting to SMG (7) plus 3 pool.
Siege
Mar 1 2004, 10:15 PM
Hence my notation regarding penalties  combat skills live and die on a +1 or a +2.
By comparison, look at skills that don't offer pools and penalties being relative and usually noncritical.
Athletics
Any social skill (Elf with Charisma 8?)
Stealth
If the attribute is, as OT mentioned, in the 3 or 4 range, a skill can be purchased with minimum fuss and karma. When you hit 5+ Attributes, the karma to buy and raise a skill becomes cost prohibitive.
Siege
Fahr
Mar 1 2004, 10:22 PM
using my nifty spreadsheet here are some examples
skill 1 vs TN 4 = 50% of getting one success
default at +4 you would need at least 4 dice to make better than the skill
skill 2 vs tn 4 = 75% default at +4 would need 8 dice to be equally likely to get 1 success
so following that all at tn 4 with defaulting
1 skill = 4 default (.5 vs .5177)
2 skill = 8 default (.75 vs .7674)
3 skill = 12 default (.875 vs .8878)
all of these are likelyhood of one success
move initial tn up to 8 and the results are
1 skill = 3 default (.1389 vs .1775)
2 skill = 5 default (.2971 vs .3578)
3 skill = 6 default (.4193 vs .4424)
4 skill = 7 default (.5173 vs .5197)
Mike R
this is only for one success so not a good measure for combat with staging.
edit: for clarity
Fahr
Mar 1 2004, 10:33 PM
here's the spreadsheet if anyone wants to check my work...
http://users3.ev1.net/~skywise/shadowrund...probability.xlsMike R.
Lilt
Mar 1 2004, 10:34 PM
Doing the math, An elf character with a Charisma of 8 will probably outnegotiate a character with skill 5 (probably scoee more 9s than the skill 5 scores 8s). With 9 Cha you will probably outnegotiate even a skill 6 character, although a skill 7 character will probably still beat you. You stand no chance against a skill 8 character, unless you have some bonuses from edges and stuff.
RedmondLarry
Mar 1 2004, 10:39 PM
Fahr and Lilt, you are both forgetting that you can't default if the TN before defaulting penalties is 8 or higher.
Lilt, a negotiation roll has a TN of the other's Intelligence, not the other's skill. I don't think your results are correct.
Fahr
Mar 1 2004, 10:42 PM
actually If you look again, I did.
the first set of examples was vs. base tn 4, the second vs. base tn 8, i didn't include any higher as 8 is the highest you are aloud to default to.
Mike R.
edit: oh I see, "8 or higher", not "higher than 8", my mistake...
Lilt
Mar 1 2004, 10:47 PM
Wow. I've been playing negotiations wrongly for a while now. I did not forget that you cannot default if the TN before penalties is 8 though.
Fahr: Are you sure that spreadsheet is correct? I'm guessing it's supposed to be probability (IE: multiply by 100 and you get percentage chance) but those numbers look far too kind. Since when was there a 50% chance of hitting TN 12 with 7 dice?
Siege
Mar 1 2004, 10:49 PM
QUOTE (OurTeam) 
Fahr and Lilt, you are both forgetting that you can't default if the TN before defaulting penalties is 8 or higher.
Lilt, a negotiation roll has a TN of the other's Intelligence, not the other's skill. I don't think your results are correct. 
This is a new one to me  page number?
Siege
Lilt
Mar 1 2004, 10:52 PM
QUOTE (Siege) 
This is a new one to me  page number? 
85 for the max TN deal, 273 for the negotiations stuff.
Lilt
Mar 1 2004, 10:57 PM
BTW: The proggy I use for all my shadowrun "What If..." calculations is the
Shadowrun dice roll probability calculator. All it's missing is the ability to simulate multiple sets of rolls (Drain resistance, Spell resistance, Opposed checks and stuff) simultaniously...
Fahr
Mar 1 2004, 10:59 PM
I posted it so somwone could check my work, so No I am not certain it is correct.
I made this a while ago using a probability textbook, and my probability math is rusty so I can't even remember the correct formula...
Mike R.
edit:
man I would love to see the code behind that.
Siege
Mar 1 2004, 10:59 PM
QUOTE (Lilt) 
QUOTE (Siege @ Mar 1 2004, 10:49 PM)  This is a new one to me  page number? 
85 for the max TN deal, 273 for the negotiations stuff.

Oh, fabu! I'll have to remember this one.
Siege
RedmondLarry
Mar 1 2004, 11:05 PM
OK, I worked out the math for defaulting to an Attribute. Results comparing expected number of successes for given numbers of dice.
** Base TN 4:
Skill 2 beats Attributes up to 7
Skill 3 beats Attributes up to 10
Skill 4 beats Attributes up to 14
Skill 5 matches Attribute 18
** Base TN 5
Skill 2 matches Attribute 6
Skill 3 matches Attribute 9
Skill 4 matches Attribute 12 and so on
** Base TN 6
Skill 2 matches Attribute 4
Skill 3 matches Attribute 6 and so on
** Base TN 7
Skill 2 matches Attribute 6
Skill 3 matches Attribute 9 and so on
** Base TN 8
Skill beats Attribute at all values
If you can add Combat Pool to your roll, then use twice your skill value in the above table to determine probability.
/Edit: My calculations are for expected number of successes, and Fahr's calculations are for probability of getting one or more successes. These are different things with different numbers.
Shockwave_IIc
Mar 1 2004, 11:17 PM
QUOTE (Siege) 
QUOTE (Lilt @ Mar 1 2004, 10:52 PM)  QUOTE (Siege @ Mar 1 2004, 10:49 PM)  This is a new one to me  page number? 
85 for the max TN deal, 273 for the negotiations stuff.

Oh, fabu! I'll have to remember this one.
Siege

Thus why troll fixer are rarely seen, cos even with 110000
of upgrades there only on par with the rest of them.
Lilt
Mar 1 2004, 11:18 PM
Fahr: Your single die rolls look correct, there appear to be some errors in the 2nd column though as you get into the probabilities for the exploding D6.
Siege
Mar 1 2004, 11:18 PM
Yeah, but they should get bonuses for dealing with Trolls and Orks  or at least not suffer the same number of penalties.
Or do trolls think each other as offensive as it would seem everyone else does?
Siege
Lilt
Mar 1 2004, 11:23 PM
OTOH: My next character is gonna take a troll fixer contact
And technically trolls dealing with trolls are somewhat even as they both have the intelligence penalty
Shockwave_IIc
Mar 1 2004, 11:30 PM
Yeah i found this out when i created a troll NPC fixer. "Tn's 4 to get a better deal??!!, nope have a free Cerebral Booster Mr Jackson"
Strangly none of my player minded.
RedmondLarry
Mar 1 2004, 11:47 PM
QUOTE (Fahr @ Mar 1 2004, 02:59 PM) 
man I would love to see the code behind that. 
The probability of achieving 1 or more successes is "1 minus the probability of all failures". The probability of N dice all failing is "(probability of one die failing) to the Nth power". The probability for one die failing is "1 minus the probability of 1 die succeeding". The probability for one die succeeding for Target Number T between 2 and 6 is "(7T)/6". The probability for one die succeeding for Target Number T between 7 and 12 is "(1/6)*(13T)/6".
Using N for number of dice, and T for target number, we get the following formula for 1 or more successes for T from 2 through 6 with
=1((1(7T)/6)^N)
From 7 to 12:
=1((1((1/6)*(13T)/6))^N)
/Edit:
Shanshu Freeman, clearly the answer is not obvious. You have a good question.
Shanshu Freeman
Mar 2 2004, 04:11 AM
QUOTE (OurTeam) 
Shanshu Freeman, clearly the answer is not obvious. You have a good question. 
: dance :
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