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AppliedCheese
Ok, I've been reading a lot of Richard K. Morgan recently (highly recommended SR reading, by the by) and have become intrigued by the idea of Conflict Investment, as he terms it. Namely the concept is war for profit, not as a mercenary organization, but as the financial backer of a side in return for straight up cuts of GDP, forced product distribution, etc. It only really works with countries small enough that you can still hold a stick over their head to make sure the regime keeps listening when your done. For instance, you might find a rebel group somewhere in the Congo, meet an befriend the leader, and agree to sell him hundreds of millions in high tech arms and equipment that he could never get otherwise, media coverage, political influence, and so forth. With no down payment, only the agreement that when he uses said boons to establish the new regime, he guarantees everything you could want from a colony. And the owning corp stays on retainer to the country as official defense advisors, ensuring a flow of said items, and even more retainer.

The compliance stick is two fold: You fail to meet, we cut your supplies, AND we'll find another power-hungry/ideological rebel leader to give the same deal to. We may kill you strait up, or just let the new angry mob do it.

So, after that long winded intro, would anyone care to espouse how and where this would work in Shadowrun, and rattle off a few thoughts on what some shadowrunners might be doing in the process?
kzt
After I won I'd probably instead hire Ares to drop a large rock on Mr War Financier.
EKBT81
Ares is quite possibly the War Financier...
PoliteMan
I'd like to keep the politics out of it and just say that most of the times this has come up in history, the financiers rarely get their investment back, either the debt is forgiven/defaulted upon or the crippling debt launches new wars. Few countries during or after a war have the money to pay back their financiers at anything approaching a decent rate of return. Worse, enforcement of these agreements (like an invasion) means you have to pay an army to go fight an opposing army you also paid for and then you have to hope there's enough left in the wreckage for you to wring a profit out of.

It can work if there are abundant natural resources which for some reason the owners can't access but in that case it's really two deals, one deal is you're supplying him the machinery and skills to access the resource and the other is the guns and military skill. However, you can mix the two for effective bargaining power.

It can work if you have a monopoly on a new military technology that provides a significant or decisive advantage in combat AND you can somehow prevent your "customer" from reverse engineering your technology.

It can work if what you want form the government isn't profit but influence. Governments historically are far more likely to grant corporations exclusive contracts, special trading rights, and other favors instead of paying them in cash.
Ascalaphus
This is not business for the faint of heart. It takes superior skill to get a profit out of this; the fine arts of war profiteering are only for a few.

Governments are bad at paying back loans. Take a look at western countries: they just take out new loans. New, unstable countries don't have the kind of credit rating to take out a loan at all.

However, there's good money to be made in strip mining, if you know how to do it in the middle of a war zone. Such governments are pretty happy to give away mining concessions to areas they likely don't even actually control.

Enter the shadowrunners.
AppliedCheese
I believe his central concept was that most of the time the War Financiers in history have been nations/governments interested in propagating their ideology and sphere of influence, so they make decisions based not off the bottom line, but on which banana state will be more in tune with them. Money grubbing corporations, naturally, have no need to do with such foolishness, and would only do this as a pure profit/loss item.

Naturally, its a very volatile market, and one that hinges on your ability to leverage leaders in strong-man style governments. Obviously it requires a) a client state with a suitably non-democratic government, b) a client-state small/unstable enough to invest in and still wiled a threat over, and c) a client who you think will win and subsequently honor the deal (if only for fear of losing power and his life)
KarmaInferno
I'd think it would be more profitable to just subtly instigate a war from behind the scenes and then just sell weapons to both sides.

It would require a lot less investment and the payoffs would be faster.





-k
pbangarth
For a parallel, or maybe tangential, but related corporate behaviour in modern times, see Shock Doctrine, by Naomi Klein.
V-Origin
And when I say my toxic mages target these war financiers for elimination, cos these are the bad guys setting humanity back, there will definitely be some in here who would call my toxics mass-murderers..

Go figure..
pbangarth
"The end justifies the means" is an age-old point of contention. Now, if your toxic mages were toxic technomancers who drained the personal accounts of these guys, you might get a different response.
Brazilian_Shinobi
QUOTE (pattyhulez @ Jan 22 2011, 03:46 PM) *
And when I say my toxic mages target these war financiers for elimination, cos these are the bad guys setting humanity back, there will definitely be some in here who would call my toxics mass-murderers..

Go figure..


Because if I see someone parking in a special parking space for handicap individuals and said individual is not handicaped, I just can't go where he is and beat the crap out of him until I break his spine and turn him into a legitimate handicap that can use said special parking space. No matter how gratifying doing such a thing may be...
Fatum
It is working just like that in Poland (see Shadows of Europe and War!)
EKBT81
QUOTE (PoliteMan @ Jan 22 2011, 04:42 AM) *
It can work if there are abundant natural resources which for some reason the owners can't access but in that case it's really two deals, one deal is you're supplying him the machinery and skills to access the resource and the other is the guns and military skill. However, you can mix the two for effective bargaining power.

It can work if you have a monopoly on a new military technology that provides a significant or decisive advantage in combat AND you can somehow prevent your "customer" from reverse engineering your technology.

It can work if what you want form the government isn't profit but influence. Governments historically are far more likely to grant corporations exclusive contracts, special trading rights, and other favors instead of paying them in cash.


IIRC that's pretty much the way megacorp operations in western Africa were described in the old Cyberpirates book. The corps support their pet factions and get free rein regarding mining and such.
MK Ultra
AppliedCheese, I think you just discribed Chalmers & Cole SOP. Check out the small-corp chapter at the end of corporate guide to get the full description. They are basically your full-time professional war profitteer smile.gif
Grinder
QUOTE (pattyhulez @ Jan 22 2011, 07:46 PM) *
And when I say my toxic mages target these war financiers for elimination, cos these are the bad guys setting humanity back, there will definitely be some in here who would call my toxics mass-murderers..

Go figure..


Thank you for contributing to this thread. Much appreciated.

Not.
Semerkhet
QUOTE (Ascalaphus @ Jan 21 2011, 09:04 PM) *
This is not business for the faint of heart. It takes superior skill to get a profit out of this; the fine arts of war profiteering are only for a few.

Governments are bad at paying back loans. Take a look at western countries: they just take out new loans. New, unstable countries don't have the kind of credit rating to take out a loan at all.

However, there's good money to be made in strip mining, if you know how to do it in the middle of a war zone. Such governments are pretty happy to give away mining concessions to areas they likely don't even actually control.

Enter the shadowrunners.


I've read the novel in question and, yes, the Conflict Investment divisions of these corporations were depicted as the crazy people making the highest-risk, highest volatility investments. When you say "Enter the shadowrunners" the equivalent in the novel is that the CIA, referred to in the novel as simply "Langley," has gone independent and can be hired to perform all sorts of black ops on short notice but for high cost. The novel isn't entirely plausible but add in some Car Wars action and it's a good read overall.

I highly recommend all of Richard K. Morgan's work for anyone that isn't familiar. "Market Forces," the one we're talking about, is perhaps his weakest novel and it's still pretty good.
Digital Heroin
QUOTE (Semerkhet @ Jan 24 2011, 04:13 PM) *
I highly recommend all of Richard K. Morgan's work for anyone that isn't familiar. "Market Forces," the one we're talking about, is perhaps his weakest novel and it's still pretty good.


To say Market Forces is Morgan's weakest novel is like saying Kindergarten Cop was Ar- ok, bad example. Morgan's work, even his seeminly random dive into fantasy writing, is fantastic. Altered Carbon remains one of my favorite works for evoking a Shadowrun level of noir, and is recommended reading for either SR or Eclipse Phase players in my not so humble opinion.

As for the viability of conflict investment, I think it is implict with the Megas. While they may not have an actual department with that name on the sheets (and hell, some likely do), every department can gain something from backing the right, or even both, sides of a war.
crash2029
The runners could be used for acquisition of armaments that are owned by another party. Or the company could use the Runners to hit their own convoy and steal the weapons to smuggle to the guerillas. That way the company has it's hands clean and they can collect insurance.

The Runners could smuggle contraband for the guerillas.

The Runners could be used as a special forces unit that gets sent in to gather intel, commit sabotage, assassinate key personnel, or acquire key personnel. Heck they could do that without leaving their hometown. If the guerillas have a corp sponsor then the established regime almost certainly has one as well. The runners can do local runs for intel, materiel, personnel, and whatnot to deliver to a smuggler contact. For the finale they could assist the guerillas in the assault of the presidential mansion. Or whatever the regime leader's HQ is called.

Just a couple ideas off the top of my head.
AppliedCheese
In addition to "Market Forces" I believe Hand from "Broken Angels" claims he has a Master's in conflict Investment, and its pretty much flat out stated that despite the fight officially being Kemp vs The Protectorate, all of Sanction IV is essentially one big corp backed war.
Semerkhet
QUOTE (Digital Heroin @ Jan 24 2011, 03:23 PM) *
To say Market Forces is Morgan's weakest novel is like saying Kindergarten Cop was Ar- ok, bad example. Morgan's work, even his seeminly random dive into fantasy writing, is fantastic. Altered Carbon remains one of my favorite works for evoking a Shadowrun level of noir, and is recommended reading for either SR or Eclipse Phase players in my not so humble opinion.

As for the viability of conflict investment, I think it is implict with the Megas. While they may not have an actual department with that name on the sheets (and hell, some likely do), every department can gain something from backing the right, or even both, sides of a war.

smile.gif I knew someone was going to take issue with that statement. I agree completely. Altered Carbon was the best novel I read last year and is easily in my Top 5 overall. Saying that "Market Forces" is his weakest novel is saying that it was still better than 80% of what gets published under the SFF label in a given year.

As for Altered Carbon being required reading for Eclipse Phase, let me share a very short anecdote. Went to the most recent GenCon having not yet played EP but having read through the corebook once. At the beginning of the session everyone admitted never having played the game. By the end of the session I was accused of being a ringer because I seemed so comfortable with the setting and the technology. I attribute that situation almost entirely to my having read the Takeshi Kovacs novels. It also doesn't hurt that I've read about 75% of the rest of EP's "Recommended Reading" list.

I was a tiny bit dubious about a Morgan fantasy, but I really liked "The Steel Remains." I can't wait for the sequel.

Neraph
QUOTE (PoliteMan @ Jan 21 2011, 08:42 PM) *
I'd like to keep the politics out of it and just say that most of the times this has come up in history, the financiers rarely get their investment back, either the debt is forgiven/defaulted upon or the crippling debt launches new wars. Few countries during or after a war have the money to pay back their financiers at anything approaching a decent rate of return. Worse, enforcement of these agreements (like an invasion) means you have to pay an army to go fight an opposing army you also paid for and then you have to hope there's enough left in the wreckage for you to wring a profit out of.

More than just having the debt defaulted/forgiven, many times the investee makes war on the investor. Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden come to mind, with the USA playing the Conflict Investor in both instances (if I got my history right - and I'm fairly certain I did).

QUOTE (KarmaInferno @ Jan 22 2011, 11:06 AM) *
I'd think it would be more profitable to just subtly instigate a war from behind the scenes and then just sell weapons to both sides.

It would require a lot less investment and the payoffs would be faster.

This is the way it's usually done.
Digital Heroin
QUOTE (Semerkhet @ Jan 25 2011, 07:55 PM) *
I was a tiny bit dubious about a Morgan fantasy, but I really liked "The Steel Remains." I can't wait for the sequel.


I have yet to meet a Richard Morgan novel I didn't like, which I believe I implied above. With 'The Steel Remains' I found it comfortable in that it was recognizably true to fantasy formula, but all the better for having things turned on their heads in all the right places.
Charon
QUOTE (AppliedCheese @ Jan 21 2011, 08:12 PM) *
So, after that long winded intro, would anyone care to espouse how and where this would work in Shadowrun, and rattle off a few thoughts on what some shadowrunners might be doing in the process?


SR POV:

To a corporation, this is not a typical investment. If you fail, not only is there no way to recoup your loss, you can suffer a backlash. Even in SR this is illegal (In that 'Everybody does it, but don't get caught' mentality). The Corporate Court can certainly sanction the guilty corp if it is sloppy. The other Megacorps will be only too happy to stick it to the guilty party and eat up its market shares. Therefore you want to be discreet; the more money you spend, the harder it is to cover your tracks.

And if it works, well, puppet dictators aren't always as tractable as you'd wish. Ironically, the more you have invested in them, the stronger they have become, the harder they are to control. Eh.

Also, there comes a points between a few millions and a few billions where the accountants can't cover for you anymore. The shareholders wake up and realize bakruptcy is a possibility, the company insiders realize you might destroy the company, your enemies realize what you are doing and decide to throw a wrench etc. You just can't finance a small army and expect to get away with it unnoticed.

This means that this is a high risk venture. So you want to achieve your goal with as little investment and with as much deniability as possible. Yeah, you want to prop up a rebel group and work a deal with them. Providing them with some equipment is nice but won't achieve that much. It'll be primarily be done by hiring skilled mercenaries and assassins.

Typical runs: Kill, kidnap or blackmail a key figure, a smear campaign, sabotage etc. Basically, you want to help the rebels along, enough to become friendly with them and get that mining concession you are looking for. What you don't want is co-opt them entirely and get in bed with them. There is very little profit in tying yourself too closely with a rebel group.
Charon
QUOTE (pattyhulez @ Jan 22 2011, 01:46 PM) *
And when I say my toxic mages target these war financiers for elimination, cos these are the bad guys setting humanity back, there will definitely be some in here who would call my toxics mass-murderers..

Go figure..


No, if they did that (and only that) they'd be vigilante and I believe heroes.

But that'd be your toxic mages. Shadowrun's toxic mages are batshit crazy by every rules I have ever read and have only shown up in canon to perform worse actions than war profiteering. So yeah, if they show up to counter the evil corporation, things are about to get worse, not better. I only wish there was a canon example to show you... oh, wait. Yucatan.

It's kind of like if I said; ''And when my runners explained the plight of the squatters to Lofwyr, he realized the harm he was causing and abandoned his development projects over the dragon ley line. He even offered a reward for the runners and swore to protect the little commune in the future. After that I bet people will still claim he is a ruthless manipulator who believes in survival of the fittest.''

Well... that'd only be my very questionable interpretation on how Lofwyr operates, based on nothing more than my whim, and people would be correct in arguing that I am straying very far from canon. Same with your toxic mages.
Charon
*double post*
Snow_Fox
as the investment professional on the board, sin sells. There is a lot of profit in guns, tobbacco, booze.
With war itself though it is too damn risky as an investment. I'd treat it as a junk bond. the divdend payback has to be damn good because you're most likely not getting the principal back
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