So, I was putting this together for my new Ghost Cartels campaign and figured I'd share (although some of you have certainly done similar number crunching before) and see if anyone had any major suggestions or quibbles. I wanted to calculate what the approximate yearly income was for the major Seattle syndicates so I could see how much of a disruption tempo (and my PCs) would be having.

Did a bit of research first; typically, the black or underground economy of a region is somewhere between 1% and 5%, depending on how law abiding it is; this is for places that still have a civil authority, though, so it doesn't apply to the Barrens, but does apply to most of the districts. Second, that's the gross intake, half of which, at a minimum, goes right back into operating expenses. And thirdly, that's the cumulative black economy, that is then split up among all of the syndicates, the gangs, and, of course, the shadowrunners.

So, numbers I took from Seattle 2072; took the listed population for each district, multiplied it by the listed per capita income to get the District Gross Income; multiplied that by the Black Economy % Rate to get the Black Economy Gross, which then gets cut in half for the Black Economy net profit, and then further multiplied by the individual syndicate percentages by district--which, I will freely admit, are a combination of SWAGs, educated estimates, and going through the books getting a feel for who is dominant where--to get the yearly gross and net incomes per syndicate (Yakuza, Mafia, Triad, Vory and Other (which covers the smaller syndicates, the non-affiliated gangs, the illegal policlubs, and, of course, the shadowrunners)).

And this sheet here is what I've come up with.

Thoughts? Feedback?

One major area I didn't have numbers for is the Matrix, which severely impacts groups like the Vory, who are described as being very active online, so suggestions there would be very helpful.

Also, this isn't a precision document; it's meant mostly to ballpark the numbers, so please keep that in mind when you're ripping into it...

Beyond that, let me know what you think!

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That's a neat idea. What about the Grey market? What would it's percentage be?

I can totally see the various criminal organizations selling nicosticks with fake tax stamps, using construction materials from a shipment that got lost in a warehouse, or otherwise legal things obtained in less than legal ways.


Eric

Interesting.

I'd say even in the nice districts the shadow economy % could be higher, because Seattle is an enclave on the wrong side of the continent, far from effective federal oversight. It's a major port, smuggling and spying den.

Also the population doesn't include a district like the Ork Underground.

Personally, I see the Shadow Community as being an actual "Voter Bloc" that the Mayors and Governor of Seattle cannot ignore, despite their "SINless" status. Fixers, Shadowrunners, and Organized Crime members often have multiple Fake SINs that they would use to vote with in order to shore up their legitimacy.

It also doesn't factor in the money that corporations (big and small) feed into the black market. This is only stuff individuals buy. Companies would also factor in a way that probably dwarfs what individuals spend.

Huh. And here I thought that people would be protesting that my numbers were too high...

If anything, they're probably too low.

Like it!

You've always got net profit down as a flat 50% of the gross. Is that figure coming from somewhere? It seems a bit high, even for illegal economy, which is by nature more profitable.

For instance: Smuggling. What do you save? Taxes and tolls. So maybe 20% or so at most. Add in the cost of clandestine transportation, distribution, etc, and you've got a profit margin that's maybe 10% higher than what the regular market makes. I'm not economist, but 50% seems too much.

Now drugs or BTLs or other forbidden stuff will obviously have higher margins.

That 50% is more profitable than a legal economy, but consider everything that you have to pay off first if you're an illegal.

Payoffs to officials.
Payoffs to other illegals (other syndicates, policlubs, shadowrunners, independents, etc.).
Bribes.
Equipment and maintenance on said equipment, especially weapons, vehicles, computers, 'wares.
Asset purchasing.
Upkeep on your locations.
General Overhead.
Front businesses.
Maintenance of front businesses; often, in an unprofitable month/quarter, these need an infusion to keep going so their umbrella effect can keep you covered.
Salaries and retainers to your foot-soldiers, the lieutenants, the accountants, the lawyers and everyone that you have working for you (even if you have just 100 men working for your organized crime syndicate, if each one takes home 5000 nuyen a month on the average, you're still looking at 500,000 a month in just salary-equivalents).
A certain level of legal fees so your money laundering scams keep working at efficiency.
A certain level of inefficiency in your money laundering scams.
Skimming by the accountants.
Skimming by the lieutenants.
Highly public busts by your pet police officers so they can show that they're accomplishing something and the losses of men, materiel and assets to said busts.
Highly public busts by their pet police officers that weren't planned for and therefore have even higher losses.
Food, lodging and other maintenance for your "kept" people, like prostitutes, bunraku puppets and so forth.
Legal fees.
And so forth.

So, yeah, an illegal operation is more profitable, but they still have expenses, and 50% is a good ballpark for those costs, especially when compared to ostensibly legal operations, which have even more overhead and costs that they have to clear.

I was trying to say that 50% profit is too much, even for illegal operations. You've sort of made my point.

As part of my job I have tracked financials for "organized crime"-admittedly not the "Mafia" or OC as most of us tend to think of them, but rather large regional gangs (Vice Lords, Nation of Islam, MSTA, Latin Kings, Latin Counts, Gangster Disciples, etc...) and it's funny how they work at times.

I tend to look at them as being similar to a pyramid scheme-the people at the top make a lot of money, but the people at the bottom really don't do that well. I've seen cats who make more money inside prison than they did on the streets, and I've seen people who basically make less than minimum wage really.

One thing that's not codified in Bibliophile20's information is the various "benefits" that come from working with an organized group, and the costs. Many gangs have strictures and by laws that codify mutual assistance rules, and asset division. Bu I agree with BP7.62-50% is probably a little high at times. In some areas it's accurate or even an underestimation-but overall I'd say it's high.

Still I think it's pretty cool you put this together B20. Thanks!

No problem; glad you find it useful.

As for the 50% thing, that was the number that my research ballparked as a good round figure estimate, and, to be honest, I originally planned to create the sheet as having three variable projections--high (+1% to 2%), middle (shown) and low (-1% to 2%) Black Economy rates, high (66%), middle (shown), and low (33%) profit rates, and variable syndicate market shares--but ended up deciding against it as potentially confusing as a game reference document ("What rate was I using again?"), plus a bunch more work.

However, as there seems to be interest, I'll run up those variable projections--at least for the Black Economy % and profit rates--and post it here when I'm done.

Just be prepared for not everyone to be happy. Heh. You can please some of the people some of the time...