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Black Isis
Okay, I'm in the process of rereading SoNA, and looking at the comparative stats of Tsimishan and the SSC, how is this in any way a fair matchup? Just in terms of sheer numbers, the SSC has almost 9 times the population of Tsimishan. Neither one appears to have any giant advantage in terms of technology or industrial might, and MCT backing for Tsimishan can only do so much. The only way I can see Tsimishan even having a chance is by using NBC warfare, and it doesn't seem like they were really too keen on the idea (if they did use it, they only did it when their backs were against the wall -- in a matchup like this, it seems like they'd have to assume they'd have to use that from the beginning). Anyone have any ideas? Any local experts on the conflict care to weigh in? smile.gif
Backgammon
Amount of soldiers isn't all that much. Besides, the SSC probably has far fewer soldiers per citizen than Tsimshian does. Tsimshian is a military nation, SSC is not.

There are many strategic and tactical issues to consider. One is the way both countries are willing to fight their war. Tsimshian has no qualms about putting it's soldiers in danger or using really big guns. SSC is not a police nation, so too many casualties and the public will cry out. SSC cannot also use devastating weapons, because they don't want to hurt the environnement.

And Tsimshian DOES have a huge industrial advantage. NAN nations sacrifice industrial might over green policies. Tsimshian just rolls out the huge factories and heavy industry like there's no tomorrow.

And there's the real reason the war is being fought, which isn't really clear, but may or may not be over mana lines. A war of surgical strikes covered by precise invasions is like a game of chess. It could go both ways, the SSC can't just strike like a hammer, thus restricting it's possible numerical advantage.

Besides, Tsimshian isn't doing that good anyway. They were being beaten back until the bio disaster, and now both are kinda positioning and looking at each other, but Tsimshian is in clear disadvantage.

That's how I see it, anyway.

Ancient History
1) Conflict is over manalines, and magic can severely affect the outcomes of local battles. SSC has a slight advantage in that it's shamans aren't insane (for the most part), but as I recall Tsimshian controls the mana lines.

2) Tsimshian has used chemical/biological warfare to an extant already.
Black Isis
Well, realistically, no country can afford to field more than about 1% of its people as a military force -- especially in a police state. So you're looking at a 95,000 person army in Tsimishian, and that's support and logistics personnel too. That's not very big at all. Manpower does make a bigger difference than you guys seem to think -- I can't think of any war between two powers where the size difference was so out of whack.

Even if Tsimishian is ten times as industrialized as SSC per capita (and I find that hard to believe, since SSC is the headquarters of Gaeatronics, among others) that's still only a slim edge over the SSC in total industrial might. I'm assuming the SSC and Tsimishian are equally matched magically; MCT might give Tsimishian a bit of an edge with unmanned drones, but I can't imagine it is so overwhelming.

Tsimishian hasn't used chem/bio warfare much at all, from the looks of it, AH -- I'm talking about strategic bombing of cities, wiping out armored columns, stuff like that. It sounds like that one incident was bad, but it wasn't really what I'm talking about.

Are there any numbers anywhere? Would be interesting to see. Also, have there been any updates on what's been going on since SoNA was published (summer 2062, it looks like)?

Yes, I am a nitpicker -- I was a creative writing/military history double major in college. smile.gif
Ancient History
Creative Writing /and/ military history? You're either in politics or the miliatary. They love that. Better than philosophy and psych majors.

It's a very low-level conflict, with the weapons used in an isolated incident (or incidents). Sort of like when the Germans tried to charge through their own gas attacks, but on a very small scale.
Kanada Ten
QUOTE
I can't think of any war between two powers where the size difference was so out of whack.

Iran/Iraq?

The Salish have many advantages over Tsimishian. The latter is so polluted and devested, however, that the Salish cannot afford to conquer and the rebuild their neighbor. There is no incentive, other than liberation, for the Salish to invade. History has shown time and time again that such a war only mires the conqueror in terrorists and huge expenditures of resources... the very resources the Salish are trying to protect. Their primary goal now is to end Tsimshian aggression and/or damage of Salish natural resources.

Tsimshian, on the other hand, has nothing to lose really. They wasted all their resources, are suppressing a revolution, and have no real allies other than MCT. Without some gain for them, the nation is in bad straights. The leadership is a total failure: no schools, no jobs, no progress. This is the same trap as many nations in Africa and the Middle East face; corrupt leadership, poor economic prospects, stagnation and rebellions. The government is trying to turn a resource grab into a national cause and thus stave off the real issues.

QUOTE
I'm talking about strategic bombing of cities, wiping out armored columns, stuff like that.

Good gads man, these are third world nations. They can't afford that kind of war. This is a border conflict. Niether side is really thinking seriously about invasion or devastation.
booklord
Salish Shidhe Council is not a third world country. Some tribes might be low tech but others like the Salish and Makah are quite advanced. Universal Omnitech and Gaetronics both call the nation home. UO could easily come up with the sort of biological weapon that hit both sides during the conflict.

As for the Tsimshian nation, they may have trashed their nation, but they've got the backing of MCT. That's a triple A megacorp with access to all forms of biological, chemical and even some nuclear weapons. It's also a megacorp with a sizable investment that they'd likely lose should the government fall. It may even be willing to provide all sorts of military equipment. Even before MCT came along, the Twsimshian was heavy in the military budget.

I'd say that the Tsimshian motivation was invasion, not of the entire country but a few valuable light industrial sites. Take some land and resources from the weaker tribes of the S-S Council and hope that NAN doesn't think its worth fighting over. Unfortunately for the Tsimshian what they may have in quanity the S-S Council seems to make up in quality. They couldn't hold it. As for the Salish, I'd say their motivation at this point is to hit the Tsimshian hard enough that they won't be able to threaten S-S land again. They certainly don't want to invade, but the Tsimshian forces are too big a threat to just wait around for them to invade again.

The real question is who actually lit off the biological weapon? Universal Omnitech? Mitsuhama? Someone else? And would they do it again?

Another possibility is that NAN might get involved. The Athabascan council last I heard is patheically under-armed. Pueblo is a little busy in the Mojave right now. The Souix have a strong military tradition and may get involved. And if the the S-S get hit by more biological weapons we could even see a magical weapon of mass destruction as it is unlikely that NAN will allow a member nation to be destroyed by an invader.
Thanos007
QUOTE
Pueblo is a little busy in the Mojave right now.


Whats going on in the Mojave?

Thanos
Snow_Fox
Black isis, size? Vietnam? in 1905 Japan vs Russia, 1937 Japan Vs China?

As for your estimate of the size of a standing army in relation to the general population, look at North Korea, or similarly North Vietnam of the 1960's. Even poeple not actually in uniform work to support and maintain the military establishment. Tsimian can do this as a corp backed police state in ways that the relatively enlightened SS can't.

Also apaprently the chemical or magical attacks used against SS were devistatying, even if not big in effect scary enough to make the larger nation hold back.
booklord
QUOTE
Well, realistically, no country can afford to field more than about 1% of its people as a military force -- especially in a police state. So you're looking at a 95,000 person army in Tsimishian, and that's support and logistics personnel too. That's not very big at all. Manpower does make a bigger difference than you guys seem to think -- I can't think of any war between two powers where the size difference was so out of whack.


Allow me to introduce you to North Korea, 2004. Population roughly 22.5 Million. Boasts of having a million man army. ( Something like the fourth or fifth largest army in the world ) That would mean between 4% - 5% of the population is military. When you take into acount that men of military age make up probably less than 25% of the population.....

Actually North Korea is a good parrallel for the Tsimshian nation. Both built giant militaries from limited populations. Both have severe economic problems and have far more prosperous neighbor they are threatening to invade. Both have a large amount of military hardware ( even it a decade or two out of date )
Kanada Ten
QUOTE
QUOTE
Pueblo is a little busy in the Mojave right now.

Whats going on in the Mojave?

Pueblo troops are disappearing left and right; though I think the bigger concern for them is Aztlan bouncing back and holding LA together. Pueblo has a very advanced military, but far too few troops. All while the old and new political forces collide.

QUOTE
Salish Shidhe Council is not a third world country. Some tribes might be low tech but others like the Salish and Makah are quite advanced.

I think we just have wildly different definitions of third world. Mexico is near third world if not third world and one of the world's leading technological and manufacturing centers.

QUOTE
As for the Tsimshian nation, they may have trashed their nation, but they've got the backing of MCT. That's a triple A megacorp with access to all forms of biological, chemical and even some nuclear weapons. It's also a megacorp with a sizable investment that they'd likely lose should the government fall. It may even be willing to provide all sorts of military equipment. Even before MCT came along, the Tsimshian was heavy in the military budget.

MCT is almost done with Tsimshian; that's why they invaded the Salish. The head of MCT Tsimshian division and Tsimshian's government are both in deep trouble if they can't raise the bottom line. That's why other leaders in the nation are turning to other corporations. There is very little worth in supporting Tsimshian with no natural resources, no economic reasons, and no stability.

QUOTE
I'd say that the Tsimshian motivation was invasion, not of the entire country but a few valuable light industrial sites. Take some land and resources from the weaker tribes of the S-S Council and hope that NAN doesn't think its worth fighting over. Unfortunately for the Tsimshian what they may have in quanity the S-S Council seems to make up in quality. They couldn't hold it. As for the Salish, I'd say their motivation at this point is to hit the Tsimshian hard enough that they won't be able to threaten S-S land again. They certainly don't want to invade, but the Tsimshian forces are too big a threat to just wait around for them to invade again.

I agree. But think about that last point and then your excellent parallel to North Korea. In fact, we could see the Souix playing the US (again) and set up a DMZ between the two nations.
mfb
actually, booklord, black isis is right--in a manner fo speaking. north korea actually can't afford to field the army it currently fields--it depends on international aid to keep everything working.

granted that tsimshian has the backing of MCT, i'd say it's probably in the same position as nkorea--spending more than it can afford on its military, and supplementing its actual GNP with handouts from MCT.
Namergon
About the biowarfare weapon supposed to have been used in the SS/Tsimshian war: is it hard fact that it is a "conventional" biowarfare weapon?
Last mention I saw about this was the novel "Tale You Lose", in which it seems that the weapon used is more likely to have been a magical weapon of some sort, used by the Tsimshian, and that somehow partially botched (hence the victims in both camps).

booklord
QUOTE
MCT is almost done with Tsimshian; that's why they invaded the Salish. The head of MCT Tsimshian division and Tsimshian's government are both in deep trouble if they can't raise the bottom line.


As I understand it MCT's main interest in the Tsimshian nation is a giant mineral deposit located on the coast. This war is probably the last thing they want. MCT has a lot to lose if this war gets really bloody. NAN could get involved and force MCT to withdraw from the Tsimshian nation. ( MCT has investments in the Pueblo and Souix nations. Both have the political will to kick MCT out if they wanted to. )
Black Isis
AH, actually, I'm a system administrator. smile.gif

I realize that is possible that Tsimishian is boosting it's army beyond limits it can actually support -- actually, lookng at what I said before, a 95,000 man army is actually ten percent of the population (stupid decimal points), compared to a 1% population army of about 85,000 in Salish, assuming they follow more conventional lines. That's incredibly insane.

As for people trying to make Vietnam parallels -- you'll notice that Vietnam wasn't the one trying to invade the United States. Insurgent warfare is good for defense, or internal rebellions, but it's not something you can actually use to take and hold territory (because a lot of the tactics in insurgent warfare require you to make a lot of hit and run attacks and not stay in one place where the superior force can hit you back. It also requires support from the native population, and I don't think Salish citizens are really supporting the Tsimishian invasion.

As for Iran/Iraq -- Iran has about twice the population of Iraq, maybe three times -- not ten times. North Korea may have a one million man army, but I would bet that a lot of those are poorly trained and equipped, and North Korea is starving itself to death to support that. The Russo-Japanese War didn't involve a full scale invasion of Russia by Japan, just a few islands -- and in some ways that is a special case, because of the state of naval warfare at the time, ship design was going through a quantum revolution, and the Russian ships were no match for the Japanese fleet (making them unable to move their army to their islands -- roughly the same situation China is in right now with regard to Taiwan). Japan's invasion of China was ultimately a failure (and probably would have been regardless of allied support for China).

I'm not saying that I don't believe this couldn't happen -- I'm just wondering how Tsimishian expected to win in the end. Even if they were wildly successful somehow, and managed to take over all of Salish, it seems unlikely that they would be able to police the population and prevent a rebellion by the Salish (without going to extraordinary means like death camps or simply levelling cities, which will probably provoke a NAN response, not to mention one from the UCAS or other nearby parties.
toturi
I think that the Tsimishian invasion was a war of limited objectives, seize resource rich areas and defend them against SSC attempts to regain control of those areas.
booklord
QUOTE
I realize that is possible that Tsimishian is boosting it's army beyond limits it can actually support -- actually, lookng at what I said before, a 95,000 man army is actually ten percent of the population (stupid decimal points), compared to a 1% population army of about 85,000 in Salish, assuming they follow more conventional lines. That's incredibly insane.


I doubt that Salish troops are that numerous. The S-S council is made up several tribes of which only a few of them seem inclined to support the military. The description of Salish military forces always struck me as a small, elite, highly advanced force. I'd estimate that the S-S army is much less than 0.5% of the population. ( Maybe as low as 22,500 ) In addition the biggest military base is the naval base south of Seattle in Makah territory. (where they keep their submarines) Naval forces are probably of limited use against the Tsimshian nation.

QUOTE
I'm not saying that I don't believe this couldn't happen -- I'm just wondering how Tsimishian expected to win in the end. Even if they were wildly successful somehow, and managed to take over all of Salish, it seems unlikely that they would be able to police the population and prevent a rebellion by the Salish


All of the really big Salish tribes ( Salish, Makah, Sinsearch ) are in the Southern half of the country. Even the Cascade Crow are east of Seattle and in Van Couver island. That leaves the minor tribes to the north. It's highly doubtful that the Tsimshian thought they could take over the entire S-S council land. But they could seize a part of it, deport the population, and then fortify their positions. The S-S council is a collection of tribes. If the Tsimshian forces managed a sound enough victory many of those tribes might of just decided that the land (which belonged to the other tribes anyway) wasn't worth the price in blood they'd have to pay to get it back.

( If anyone has read the Tom Clancy novel where the US goes to war with Japan you'd see a good parallel. In the book Japan invades Guam thinking the US would never embroil itself in a major conflict over such a small island. In the book Japan was proven wrong as well. )

As for why.... The Mitsuhama contract will last only as long as the mineral deposit. The Tsimshian government needs new resources or its economy ( drained by its over-sized military ) will collapse. The original NAN sourcebooks described light industrial sites just on the other side of the border. They're desperate. This isn't over.
Snow_Fox
QUOTE (Black Isis @ Jul 2 2004, 09:18 AM)
As for people trying to make Vietnam parallels -- you'll notice that Vietnam wasn't the one trying to invade the United States.

Wrong. North Vietnam was aiding rebels in South Vietnam. The NVA, North Vietnamese Army were hard chargers fighting the US in South Vietnam from 1965.
They didn't have to go after the US proper, just deal with the troops the US sent. Also the US, because of a fear of bringing in the USSR (remember them) and triggering WW3, couldn't go after the sources of the supplies going south to the viet cong. They could ariel bombard but not send in ground troops en-mass.

As for the Tsimians or Koreans having an army the population can't support, they don't, the civilian population suffers and only survives because the police state have supporters, Communist China or AAA Corps, depending on whom you are looking at.
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