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El_Machinae
Living long enough to live forever is a theory where eventually technology's ability to add to our life expectancy will grow faster than we age.

For example, I'm currently expected to live until 86 or so (based on today's numbers), but in ten years a 30 year old can expect to live until ~87 (if current rates stay the same). However, if life expectancy goes up by more than one year, every year, then the 'time till expected death' progressively gets further away.

I'm wondering if that's true for the SR society. As far as I can tell, they can easily (kinda) add decades to someone's life. But after those decades have passed, I'm quite sure that there will be another therapy available that will add ever more decades to the life span.

I'd imagine that quite a few people would not even have to expect to die of old age in SR. How much is the therapy? Not much, if you consider that a company very well might loan out the money for the therapy, and then expect to get the payment back from the wages from an extended life.

I wonder how fast we'd have to cure aging in today's society in order for the same concept of escape velocity to apply nowadays.
Arkelias
Medicine and magic have both extended life expectancy in Shadowrun, but I really doubt that they would continue to do so indefinitely. You might be expected to live until 87, but I doubt you are going to be hale and hearty. Most likely you'll be feeble and prone to sickness like the majority of the elderly who are currently alive at that age.

And why would a corporation spring for any sort of 'gene therapy' or anything that would extend your life expectancy? Right now they don't even want to pay basic insurance. The longer you are with a company the more your salary tends to go up. Rather than keep those employees corps are more likely to hire someone younger and more eager for a third of the price.

All that aside one does have to wonder about elves. Their lifespan is an average of 400 years or so, and during that time they aren't supposed to really start aging until near the very end. What would you do if you were basically a 30 year old for the next three and a half centuries?
Dawnshadow
Work and save for 30-50 years, then live off the interest when I've got a million or two in the bank. Do what I want -- if it means spend 5 years in school again, do it. If it means ten years working in a specific industry, do that.
El_Machinae
QUOTE
And why would a corporation spring for any sort of 'gene therapy' or anything that would extend your life expectancy?


I'd assume that they pay more to senior employees because the senior employees are worth more. If they weren't, they wouldn't pay them more (or they'd fire them and hire younger people).

I don't think the corps would pay for it, I think that corps would be willing to loan money to get the therapies. If someone had to borrow nuyen.gif 70,000 to live another 3 decades, then everyone wins, because that money can easily be paid back over those three decades - and after three decades, I'd imagine that the age rejuvenation therapies will have gone down in price or would have improved to add much more than 3 decades to expected lifespans.

What I meant for me, personally, was not treatments to extend my senior years, but treatments to expand my middle-age years. If the length of 'middle age' can be medically extended faster than I age, I should never have to actually get older.
Arkelias
I guess that's the holy grail...finding a way to extend your middle age years. Thus far I know that modern science hasn't been wildly successful in doing that. Sure, people are routinely up and about through their 50s and sometimes into their 60s but it's a far cry from being 30.

There are a number of health problems that begin to surface by then. People tend to get sick more often and stay sick longer. Injuries take significantly longer to heal. Mobility is decreased and usually vision and hearing begin to go. Also, Alzheimers and Dementia will hit everyone sooner or later.

Of course all of this brings up another question. In Shadowrun VITAS wiped out a huge chunk of the world's population. That means overcrowding won't be a problem for some time. But eventually if you increase life expectancy and decrease the number of violent or accidental deaths you are going to run out of room and resources. Overpopulation will become a real problem.

Fortunately, at least in Shadowrun, there is a built in corrective solution! Eventually horrors will flood the world and scour it of most life and we'll be back to square one!
Platinum
QUOTE (Dawnshadow)
Work and save for 30-50 years, then live off the interest when I've got a million or two in the bank. Do what I want -- if it means spend 5 years in school again, do it. If it means ten years working in a specific industry, do that.

you are going to need more than 2million if you are planning to retire for 40 years.
El_Machinae
QUOTE
But eventually if you increase life expectancy and decrease the number of violent or accidental deaths you are going to run out of room and resources. Overpopulation will become a real problem.


I've always thought that overpopulation was a birthrate problem, not a deathrate problem.

As well, as technology expands, resources go up. There's an infinite amount of resources in the universe, if we learn to tap it.
Crusher Bob
The 'average' of the stock market is roughly 7% per year. Assuming that you are earning 6% percent per year on 2M that amoutns to 120,000 a year (which is enough for a high lifestyle in SR). Of course, you also have to account for inflation as well, for the USD this has been (erm, ~2 to 2.5% per year?), which means that you'd want your principal to grow ~2.5% per year to keep up with inflation.

At 6%, this turnover happens at around 3.5M
at 7%, this happens at around 2.7M per year
at 8% at around 2.2M

Of course, since this is supposed to last 'forever' you'd want plenty of money in 'hedge' investments, which typically return around 4-4.5% per year.

So, to be 'certain' you'd need 6M (@4.5%) but aroudn 3M is probably a good a figure as any.
El_Machinae
Don't forget taxes; but I'm pleased that you noticed inflation.

However, if you retire, then you're not earning. Since there are always better things to buy, people are better off earning more and more!
hyzmarca
QUOTE (El_Machinae)
QUOTE
But eventually if you increase life expectancy and decrease the number of violent or accidental deaths you are going to run out of room and resources. Overpopulation will become a real problem.


I've always thought that overpopulation was a birthrate problem, not a deathrate problem.

As well, as technology expands, resources go up. There's an infinite amount of resources in the universe, if we learn to tap it.

Overpopulation is a problem of the birth rate being higher than the death rate. It can be solved by lowering one or increasing the other to set them equal. Even if thre is a tiny inequality in the birth rate per unit of time and the death rate per unit time this inequality will cause the population to increase or decrease without bounds as time aproaches infinity.

The assertion that there is an infinite ammount of resources in the universe is incorrect.
While the volume of the universe is infinite (increases without bounds) that is just a bunch of empty space that makes it more difficult to get to new resources over time. The amount of resources in the universe (raw matter and energy) is finite due to the conservation of matter/energy. They never increase or decrease but they due become unusable due to entropy which inevitably leads to the heat death of the universe (or a big crunch in the unlikely event that gravity wins) either way one cannot be immortal because, by definition, one cannot survive the death of the universe.

Know that every time you take a bath, use a computer, eat, breath, sleep, move, bark like a dog, cook toast, or do absolutly anything you are not only hastening your own inevitable death you are also hastening the inevitable death of everything that is, was, and ever will be.


Of course, there are ways to find pseudo immortality in Shadowrun. In fact, there are pseudoimmportals in Shadowrun canon. The easiest method of gaining immortality is to be born with it, of course. There are immortal elves but being born one is impractical for most people. The most practical solution for humans and orks is to become infected with HMHVV-1. You'll stop aging and gain regeneration. Dwarves, Trolls, and elves get the short end of the stick here since they tend to lose their minds.
Gene therapy and drugs can possibly simulate the effects of being an immortal elf or of being a vampire without any of the annoying side effects sometime in the future. But magic is the tried and true way to become immortal.

By ED canon magic can extend one's life indefinatly and even cure death. In fact, one particular horror power could cure throwing yourself into a sea of magma out of hopeless despair. If Shadowrun magicians could rediscover that little gem it would be worth a fortune.
Dawnshadow
QUOTE (Platinum)
QUOTE (Dawnshadow @ Apr 7 2006, 11:30 AM)
Work and save for 30-50 years, then live off the interest when I've got a million or two in the bank. Do what I want -- if it means spend 5 years in school again, do it. If it means ten years working in a specific industry, do that.

you are going to need more than 2million if you are planning to retire for 40 years.

Assuming you can get 6% interest...

2 million means that you're getting 120k a year. Even if taxes take half that... I think I could handle living on 60k a year. The trick to making it last is to not take out the core, only interest.
ShadowDragon8685
Or you can go for 30K a year, and let it keep compounding. smile.gif
El_Machinae
Remember to factor in inflation though. Your sustainable 60k is nice today, but in 30 years it will be the equivalent of 30k a year (if inflation is just above 2%)

QUOTE
Know that every time you take a bath, use a computer, eat, breath, sleep, move, bark like a dog, cook toast, or do absolutly anything you are not only hastening your own inevitable death you are also hastening the inevitable death of everything that is, was, and ever will be.


The entropy I cause is a minor portion of the sun's entropy, really. I may be destroying chemical bonds, but in the current scheme of the things, the sun is pumping out vast amounts of energy that I can do anything I want with. My conserving fuel does not significantly change the effective lifespan of the sun.

If I endeavour to capture and use the sun's entropy, it's no different than if I never captured the entropy in the first place.

QUOTE
Overpopulation is a problem of the birth rate being higher than the death rate.


Nearly. It's a problem if we grow faster than new resources become available (because the per capita wealth/resources/food goes down). But if new resources/wealth/food grow FASTER than the growth curve, then the per capita resources increases even with the growth rate.

So, if over population bothers you, you have three choices:
- encourage the deaths of old people
- encourage the reduction of the birth rate
- encourage the discovery of new resources, or more efficient uses of current resources.

When put like that, one option seems much more moral than the other.
Platinum
QUOTE (hyzmarca)
Gene therapy and drugs can possibly simulate the effects of being an immortal elf or of being a vampire without any of the annoying side effects sometime in the future. But magic is the tried and true way to become immortal.

By ED canon magic can extend one's life indefinatly and even cure death. In fact, one particular horror power could cure throwing yourself into a sea of magma out of hopeless despair. If Shadowrun magicians could rediscover that little gem it would be worth a fortune.

I am sure that it will be soon where anyone can become a ghost in the machine.
that will be the next leap for Otaku (Otaku-Prime), they will exist purely in the matrix.

The problem is that if you get crashed in there ... game's over bud. Don't get caught in a system that is shutting down, But I am sure they will have some kind of nexus protocol.
Platinum
QUOTE (Dawnshadow)
QUOTE (Platinum @ Apr 7 2006, 11:36 AM)
QUOTE (Dawnshadow @ Apr 7 2006, 11:30 AM)
Work and save for 30-50 years, then live off the interest when I've got a million or two in the bank. Do what I want -- if it means spend 5 years in school again, do it. If it means ten years working in a specific industry, do that.

you are going to need more than 2million if you are planning to retire for 40 years.

Assuming you can get 6% interest...

2 million means that you're getting 120k a year. Even if taxes take half that... I think I could handle living on 60k a year. The trick to making it last is to not take out the core, only interest.

If you are pulling 6% you are doing well.

Over all inflation rounds out at 2.5-3% a year, some years are more some are less. You have to make sure that your base pool increases by at least this amount in order to not run out of money. Sure in 40 years you will draw 60K, but that will be like drawing 10K now. Money is designed to devalue.
Dawnshadow
Then you direct that percent of the interest into the core.. It's still not a problem.

2 million core, to get 40k a year, only needs 2% above inflation. The point is, it can be done -- not how easy, or what the numbers are, just that it's possible. Or, you can work longer, and have a bunch extra to do other things to in order to make money grow. I prefer the "I'm getting x amount a year for sure, so if I don't WANT to work every year of my life, I don't have to -- I can take 10 years and go do something else, come back, and try a different job".
Platinum
So you are telling me that if you work for 40 years you will have 2 million (compounded at 2.5% annually for 40 years) saved up? the figure btw is 5,370,127.68. You will need that to draw your 2% which is 106K a year needed to survive. If you do, will be much better off than 99.9999 of your peers. Everyone that I know has an RRSP where they will draw off the residual, and have $0 when they die. You also have to pay taxes.
nezumi
Keep in mind, the original numbers were depending on constant stock growth of about 6%. That isn't a reasonable wager over the course of 40 years. With a diverse portfolio, you're unlikely to really LOSE money, but you'll find that some years you'll pull in 3-4% and others you'll pull in 9-10%. Unfortunately, in all those years, you'll still need to eat regularly. So to be on the safe side, you'll want to assume a rate LOWER than 6%.
Dawnshadow
Depends on the interest rates. They do change over time -- right this minute, bad plan. Start it when the interest rate is higher.

And shoot.. the math I did for this is out of date -- 5 years, actually. I really didn't know that current interest rates were down to 2.5-2.8%.

But, even with that taken into account, I would work myself crazy for a few decades -- having x amount extra income later in life means that when working minimal to ordinary amounts, I'm nicely off. And yes, it depends on living on very little for the first while.
El_Machinae
Well, now you and everyone else can worry a bit about the concept of escape velocity. If aging interventions (treatments that add to your healthy life span) are developed at a rate greater than the rate that you're aging - you have a reasonable chance of living a long, long time.

This means that it would be intelligent to start working NOW on a perpetual retirement (instead of a 20 year retirement). I certainly don't think we're as likely to die at 85 as the statistics nowadays predict.
nezumi
Some of us are working now on a perpetual retirement nyahnyah.gif Why do you think I spend so much on lottery tickets?

Truthfully though, most people will find that rather than perpetual retirement, they'll do better on perpetual part-time. I wouldn't be broken hearted if I had to work 20 hours a week.
Dale
I can't financially afford to live now, how can I afford to in perpetuity?
El_Machinae
Absolutely. I would expect that in SR, it would be similar.

They'd get a loan to pay for rejuv, and then work off the loan. I'm entirely certain that the rate they're progressing means that a middle-class person would never have to die of old age.

I'm trying to calculate how much faster anti-aging treatments would have to progress in the real world for me to have a reasonable chance of never dying of old age.
Ghostly Enigma
My signituer staits my view of this. :smoken:
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v
fistandantilus4.0
IIRC, from SOTA 63, leonization treatment, which basically returns the body to it' s state of mid-twenties (Yamana just did this according to System Failure) costs about 1 million, and takes 1 essence. So you can extend your life span, but it's rough, and costly.

As far as companies paying for it, I can see them doing this if it's 1) an up there VP 2) a very important/visionary researcher, or 3) they can get the person to sign a lifetime contract, which are not unheard of in SR, and simply take the interest and payments from the persons paycheck, as well as perhaps set a salary cap for a while.Or just never promote them.
nick012000
Umm... it's one point of Bioindex, not Essence, given that it's Geneware, not cyberware.
fistandantilus4.0
sorry, been playing 4th edition, so it's all the same in my mind. yeah, you're right.
El_Machinae
QUOTE (Ghostly Enigma)
My signituer staits my view of this. :smoken:

Allowing yourself to die is a heckuva lot different than being forced to die, though. Curing aging isn't immortality, it's just reducing one of the risks that could lead to your death. As well, if YOU have the cure, you should be able to get all your loved ones a cure too (unless they were going to die earlier than you anyway).

QUOTE
which basically returns the body to it' s state of mid-twenties (Yakamura just did this according to System Failure) costs about 1 million, and takes 1 essence. So you can extend your life span, but it's rough, and costly.


1 million is not too much of a debt when you get an additional 60 years to work it off. By the time a person is in his 60s, he should have pretty good earning power. As well, while it seems there's room for only a limited number of treatments (one essence or bioindex), you've got to remember that's the price in ~2060ish. Think how much technology advances every year. In 60 more years the treatments would be absolutely different.

Over time, the price of a medical intervention goes down - unless the intervention is drastically improved and then you're getting more value for the same dollar. AIDS medications have gone down in price, heart surgery hasn't (but has gotten a lot more effective)
Ghostly Enigma
Even then I wouldn't want it or take it as the longer one lives the more regrets they gain and frankly do you think you would want 100, 200, or even 500 years of regrets and times you wish you had done something diffrent?
blakkie
QUOTE (El_Machinae)
Living long enough to live forever is a theory where eventually technology's ability to add to our life expectancy will grow faster than we age.

For example, I'm currently expected to live until 86 or so (based on today's numbers), but in ten years a 30 year old can expect to live until ~87 (if current rates stay the same). However, if life expectancy goes up by more than one year, every year, then the 'time till expected death' progressively gets further away.

I'm wondering if that's true for the SR society. As far as I can tell, they can easily (kinda) add decades to someone's life. But after those decades have passed, I'm quite sure that there will be another therapy available that will add ever more decades to the life span.

I'd imagine that quite a few people would not even have to expect to die of old age in SR. How much is the therapy? Not much, if you consider that a company very well might loan out the money for the therapy, and then expect to get the payment back from the wages from an extended life.

I wonder how fast we'd have to cure aging in today's society in order for the same concept of escape velocity to apply nowadays.

1. The generic, ass-covering warning on all investment company also applies here. "Performance data reflects past performance and is not indicative of future results."

2) Life Expectancy is an arithmetic mean (average) and therefore you should expect it to lie to you if you ask it the wrong questions.

c] Things wears out, and eventually Theseus' ship pulls into port.
El_Machinae
QUOTE (Ghostly Enigma)
Even then I wouldn't want it or take it as the longer one lives the more regrets they gain and frankly do you think you would want 100, 200, or even 500 years of regrets and times you wish you had done something diffrent?

Okay, let's extrapolate that logic. Why do you think that you can stand 10 more years of regrets (I'm assuming that you plan on being alive in ten years)? Do you think you'll be able to stand 20 more years? Why do you suspect that in ten more years, you won't be able to stand another ten years?

QUOTE
1. "Performance data reflects past performance and is not indicative of future results."
2) Life Expectancy is an arithmetic mean (average)
c] Theseus' ship pulls into port


1. True. But we can reasonably expect that the medical technologies will continue to improve - especially if we take steps to encourage them to improve. In SR, I'm sure that the leonization process will be much more efficient in 60 more years. If they improve fast enough in the real world, the same scenario would apply
2. Yeah, I get that. I don't intend to mislead, but I might be explaining poorly.
3. My atoms and cells and memories change constantly. I'm still 'me'. Theseus's ship may be a philosophical muddle, but you have no trouble determining that your food is 'not you' and your sloughed off skin is 'not you', but that both will be integrated into the 'you' at some point in time.
hyzmarca
QUOTE (Ghostly Enigma)
Even then I wouldn't want it or take it as the longer one lives the more regrets they gain and frankly do you think you would want 100, 200, or even 500 years of regrets and times you wish you had done something diffrent?

The simple solution to this is to be an insensitive apethetic jerkoff bastard asshole.

Ghostly Enigma
QUOTE
The simple solution to this is to be an insensitive apethetic jerkoff bastard asshole.



QUOTE
Okay, let's extrapolate that logic. Why do you think that you can stand 10 more years of regrets (I'm assuming that you plan on being alive in ten years)? Do you think you'll be able to stand 20 more years? Why do you suspect that in ten more years, you won't be able to stand another ten years?


Who sais I haven't all ready Apathy is nothing more the the lack of showing feelings that and I've stoped worring about other ppl as well and dont consurn my self with there problems. As to regrets the few ppl aquier in there short life time are barable but whould they be so after 200 years of life I tend to think not look at the number of ppl that kill them selfs or others becuse they couldn't handle what has happend in there life up to that point. Even more simply shut out the world or go insane in other ways for the same resions. Besides I still dont see any real advantage to exstending ones life by 60+ years.
Wounded Ronin
QUOTE (Ghostly Enigma)
Even then I wouldn't want it or take it as the longer one lives the more regrets they gain and frankly do you think you would want 100, 200, or even 500 years of regrets and times you wish you had done something diffrent?

Think about it this way. You take up striking and grappling when you're 15 and practice till you're old. Then you get the treatment. You have a lifetime of experience but your body is all youthful again. You spend another lifetime. Do it again. Do it like 3 times so you'll have lived like 400 years or so and still have 3 points of Essence.

You'd have such a breadth of experience and refined skill that you could go and kick everyone's ass. Think of how much fun it would be just to be the mischevious 400 year old asskicker of the sprawl. 400 years of hurt contained in one unimposing recycled package.
Kremlin KOA
it gets worse when you realize it can be graded, probably s half essence now and counts toward bio essence, or even a third kind of essence loss
hyzmarca
QUOTE (Ghostly Enigma)
QUOTE
The simple solution to this is to be an insensitive apethetic jerkoff bastard asshole.



QUOTE
Okay, let's extrapolate that logic. Why do you think that you can stand 10 more years of regrets (I'm assuming that you plan on being alive in ten years)? Do you think you'll be able to stand 20 more years? Why do you suspect that in ten more years, you won't be able to stand another ten years?


Who sais I haven't all ready Apathy is nothing more the the lack of showing feelings

Apathy isn't the lack of showing feelings. Apathy is the complete lack of caring. Period.
If you don't care then it doesn't matter if your friends die. You might even be the one to kill them yourself for fun and for profit.

Some people would love to be marked by the Barkerish monstrosity known as Chantrel's Horror.
blakkie
QUOTE (El_Machinae @ Apr 10 2006, 01:21 PM)
1. True.  But we can reasonably expect that the medical technologies will continue to improve - especially if we take steps to encourage them to improve.  In SR, I'm sure that the leonization process will be much more efficient in 60 more years.  If they improve fast enough in the real world, the same scenario would apply

Why can we "reasonably" expect that? Because it gets a lot of press? Sorry to dissapoint but a lot of that is because cheating death stories sell, almost as well as sex stories.

QUOTE
2. Yeah, I get that.  I don't intend to mislead, but I might be explaining poorly.


It isn't just that. The basic assumption that crappy life expectancy ment shorter lives for the longer living people is off. In truth for example in medevial times once you made it past age 20, barring the black plague or the off chance you ended up on the wrong end of a war, you could generally expect to live well into your 60's and 70's. So while average life expectancy has risen a lot, the upper range and ceiling has raised relatively less dramatically for the vast majority of long lifetime people.

QUOTE
3. My atoms and cells and memories change constantly.  I'm still 'me'.  Theseus's ship may be a philosophical muddle, but you have no trouble determining that your food is 'not you' and your sloughed off skin is 'not you', but that both will be integrated into the 'you' at some point in time.


Sure there is the physical reworking, transplants, non-biological implants, etc. that very longterm sustaining could involve. But I was thinking more about the mental aspects, and how memory is going to go. We haven't seen anyone out past about 120 yet, we don't know yet what would happen to the contents of a mind over say a period of 200 years. If I'm relying on outside feedback to bring back in the old memories then how much different is that really than our current stab at immortality; having a kid and telling them a story?
El_Machinae
1. You don't think that medical technologies will advance in the real world or the SR world?

2. That's why I prefer to talk about life expectancy at 50. The length of time a person can expect to live (on average) when they're 50 is going up right now, and has been for quite some time. Progress in medical technology can boost this number. If it ever boosts this number fast enough, a person can expect that his life expectancy is rising faster than he's aging - at that point, a person (on average) can reasonably expect to not die. Ever.

3. Continuation of the individual is still important to most people. While you've forgotten a lot of what happened in grade 1, I'm sure that your present life is still important to you. You'll always be building and losing memories, but there will be a reason to remain 'you'. I'm sure you still think of yourself as 'you', just like you did when you were six.
blakkie
I expect it to eventually show it's true self again as a bound curve. Then we might break that wall, and all bets are off. I mean ALL of them. Theoretical Immortality of a body will be a footnote in that breakthrough as the bodies that have come before will be obsolete.
El_Machinae
Ah, you mean like therapies will lead to a maximum bound at (say) 120 years?

That's why I like the MPrize, because they're looking at mice to see if they have a maximum upper bound, or if there are things that can be done to WAY overshoot what we deem to be the maximum. And since mice are so short-lived, we'll know if it's even possible to smoke the upper bound soon enough to benefit us. That's why I'm a fan.

I remember reading something like "we don't need a cure for aging, all we need is something that adds 30 years of healthy life - because then we suddenly have 30 more years to find a new way to add 30 years of life." If we can find ways to add 30 years to life FASTER than every 30 years, then we're golden. Of course, it's better if we start sooner than later.
blakkie
I suspect what the theoretical limit is labeled as will creep a bit over time, as the number of people that have the chance to live to their natural born limit grows we'll have more chances to see instances of people at the very upper end of the bell curve.

But mostly ya, the limit is there because it appears that we are turnly born to die. To change that you have to tinker so deep that the tech advancements to do so successfully are going to lead to much more profound things. Concious evolution. We will be building people, and contiplation should begin on putting a new marker in the sand to denote the transition to a new species'. If old-school "breeding" hasn't already merited it by that point.
Maltaltin
IF your going to make the argument that says that people will eventually live forever then what about all the genetic engeneering thats going on today. Supposidly their going to have the enite human gneome maped within he next ten years. So if thats true what about the genetic engeneering people to live longer or even live in hostile enviroments like under water or in extreme heat and extreme cold maybe even space?
blakkie
The genome "map" isn't like a nicely labeled street map of your town. It is closer to a diagram of your town's roads scratched into the top of a pizza, only partially labeled, and the few labels there are are in Sanskit.

Ok, maybe not the best analogy. I'm pretty sure i remember at least one boardmember that deals with this area professionally. Perhaps they could give a better description.

EDIT:Plus living in space, if you mean a vacuum, is just far flung crazy talk. You are dealing there with materials limits too. First you would have to design a body structure and metabolism that could survive a vacuum before you could try encode that design.
Ghostly Enigma
Another point to all this if we do ever get this advance what of the over all human population? I if no one dies then do we stop haveing offspring or contune to do so?
Wounded Ronin
QUOTE (Ghostly Enigma)
Another point to all this if we do ever get this advance what of the over all human population? I if no one dies then do we stop haveing offspring or contune to do so?

THURSDAY IS SOYLENT GREEN DAY!
Arkelias
El_Machinae, what about population growth? If you increase the average lifespan significantly, but do nothing to decrease the birth rate we're screwed. Even looking at what VITAS did to the population in Shadowrun what you are proposing will cripple the planet and eventually deplete it of resources.

The answer of 'well by the time it's a problem we'll have an answer' seems both short sighted and irresponsible. What if we don't? What if colonizing space isn't a reality if and when the technology you are talking about comes to pass?

I live in Southern California and I've seen how things have changed in the last twenty years. Things are getting more and more crowded, and that problem is getting worse instead of better. Technology to extend lifespan only makes that whole problem infinitely worse.

Just my two nuyen =)
hyzmarca
At this point the overpopulation problem is quite simple really. The Tabernacle will not allow any of the chosen immortals to have sexual intercourse. The brutals will continue to reproduce but thei're numbers will be kept in check using genocide.
El_Machinae
QUOTE
El_Machinae, what about population growth? If you increase the average lifespan significantly, but do nothing to decrease the birth rate we're screwed.


Population growth nowadays is already a problem, regardless of the death rate. Our civilization can handle a certain growth rate, but the technologies that increase sustainability will only grow so quickly (they will grow more quickly if people make an effort to increase them). I'm quite sure we're above the 'survivable' growth rate right now. Which means that birthrates will have to come down, regardless.

Here's a question for you, though. Suppose there was an anti-aging treatment - how many children would you have? Would you take any steps to make the world more sustainable, long term? Would you take steps to reduce the growth rate?

Why assume that everyone who would get the treatment wouldn't have the same logic process you do? If you never age, all that you need to do to 'balance' the growth rate is to not have as many children, only have children when you know the species can afford them (which is tied to when you can afford them). What's the 'resource competition' difference between you being around in 200 years or your offspring being around in 200 years? Not much.

The population growth rate needs to come down. In first world countries, we have tied wealth directly to not reproducing, and so increasing this trend in the world will have a similar effect. The alternative is advocating genocide of older people, and that's not morally acceptable.
nezumi
QUOTE (El_Machinae)
Here's a question for you, though. Suppose there was an anti-aging treatment - how many children would you have? Would you take any steps to make the world more sustainable, long term? Would you take steps to reduce the growth rate?

I'd have as many as I could pop out (wives permitting). Then I'd teach them how to eat other peoples' children. Eventually I'll have my perfect army of cannibalistic nezumis!

QUOTE
The alternative is advocating genocide of older people, and that's not morally acceptable.


Only when I'm old. Otherwise it's fine.


Truthfully, the problem isn't keeping down the birth date, it's either keeping down the population GROWTH rate, decreasing the resource USE rate or increasing the efficiency of resource GATHERING.

So some simple solutions:

1) Higher infant mortality rate among children other than mine
2) Stop wasting resources like we're all stupid, wasteful Americans. Kill people who buy SUVs and eat them first. Stuff more people into apartments instead of huge town houses and stop buying random trash all the time.
3) Continue advancing technology so our agricultural and power production yields continue to grow at a rate higher than our consumption (this has been going on for the last hundred years or so. We've outgrown our 1950's agricultural production yields without increasing our exports or farmland, for instance.)


These problems are really quite simple to solve once you just stop and think about them a little.
Platinum
QUOTE (El_Machinae)
The population growth rate needs to come down. In first world countries, we have tied wealth directly to not reproducing, and so increasing this trend in the world will have a similar effect. The alternative is advocating genocide of older people, and that's not morally acceptable.

Usually it is the poor people are the victims of genocide before old people.

The population will level out, nature has its ways, disease, famine, wars. (well war is really human "nature")

Even if people live to be really old, they have a limited procreation cycle. The number of people will strike a balance.
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