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Charon
SR4 usually reflect 60 (now 65) years in the future the fears of today.

I.E. The "punk" in cyberpunk mostly comes from the wave of criminality of the 80s and the premise was that this would continue to go worse.

So what of Global warming? Didn't see much reflection of that in SR canon even though ecologist make dire prediction for the Earth of 2050 and beyond which should make good fodder for a cyberpunk setting.

And we have the actor in places too ; Various Eco-terrorist cells, toxic shamans, Amazonia...

So where are the tales of melting glacier threatening to change some major ley line? Tiny island on the verge of being swallowed by the ocean and with a last minute desperate evacuation plan? Wacky or outright dangerous large scale magical ritual to reverse the trend (perhaps blood magic)?

---

What brought this up? Well, Christmas is upon us and here in Montréal, home of the most famed hockey team in the world, we have no snow. Worse, it is currently raining. When I was a kid we could count on a white christmas but in the past decade or so our winter has shortened drastically.

I was at a store doing some late shopping when I heard this gem of a conversation :

Young Kid : "What's that, daddy?"
Dad : "That's a snow blower, son."

eek.gif

And just 50 years ago one of our most famed poet was singing : "My Country, it ain't a country, it's Winter." Not anymore. It's a long, long autumn.

Anyway, made me think of Global Warming related SR material and lack thereof.
Chandon
It's not that global warming hasn't occurred and didn't cause massive problems... It just wasn't as bad as Vitas.
Charon
QUOTE (Chandon @ Dec 23 2006, 02:43 PM)
It's not that global warming hasn't occurred and didn't cause massive problems... It just wasn't as bad as Vitas.

VITAS was 40 years ago in SR and was two distinct crisis that are over. Global Warming is an ongoing process that would hypothetically reach critical points at around game time.
Demonseed Elite
There have been many ecological disasters in the Sixth World, which can be attributed to all sorts of things, whether it's global warming or the Great Ghost Dance. Acid rain and ash storms pour down on Seattle, super-typhoons smash into Hong Kong, etc.
Trigger
I could see global warming reversed a bit with the coming of the Awakening and magic returning. I mean, a forest sprung up across Ireland, the sea spewed its garbage back onto Germany and its neighbors and well, one of the biggest causes of warming, aka the US, gets split in twine and half becomes Native American territory, which would be more than a bit eco friendly. I am just saying, maybe through all that global warming lessened and sort of cleared up.
FrankTrollman
People in Shadowrun do some pretty impressive things to keep the orld from being destroyed by the sun. In addition to the magically extended rainforests acting as a carbon sink, there's probably also managed algal blooms on top of Arctic subduction regions that sequester atmospheric carbon for one thousand years. That doesn't stop global warming, but it does keep Greenland from melting until the Horrors come.

Of course, maybe it isn't enough because a lot of LA is under wter - which is consistent with some global warming weather models.

-Frank
Kesslan
Keep in mind Global warming is not a fast process. Rising water levels and melting ice caps sure. But it's still going to take years for the problem to fully develop. The biggest issue is also not so much the melting ice, but the various life forms that cant adapt to the up to 2 degree temperature change, nto to mention the change in ocean currents which have allready had a lot of unexpected side effects.

The arrival of the awakening might well be part of the reason however. Look at the fact that no nuke detonated post awakening has EVER hit it's full potential.

The Ceremak blast was oddly a contained explosion, so too were the nukes Winternight did manage to have go off.
Charon
Indeed, there has been some ecological concern in SR. Enough so that to include global warming formally into the canon wouldn't include serious retrofitting.

Still, it hasn't been really adressed. Most of the wacky natural disaster of the sixth world have more to do with either magic or the desire of the designers to shake things up than with global warming. Sometime it quite simply defy logic (i.e. I think I remember New York being hit by a powerful Earthquake).

And if the solution to GW is magic, it's a wonderful occasion for a campaign based on such a large ritual possibly involving blood magic. Or for large scale technological solution. Both offering a lot of fodder for run.

QUOTE (Kesslan)
Keep in mind Global warming is not a fast process. Rising water levels and melting ice caps sure. But it's still going to take years for the problem to fully develop.


Well, it has been years. 65 years, now. By some of the most catastrophic previsions (Which are of course those that would be used in any self respecting cyberpunkish setting), we'll be in real trouble in 2070.

---

The Amazonia ain't truly the lungs of the planet. That'd be the Ocean by a very large margin. I don't think regrowing the Amazonia would do that much to slow Global Warming.

Beside, it might turns out that most of the increase in heat is simply the Sun being in an increased cycle of activity, anyway, with greenhouse gas only hastening the inevitable.
FrankTrollman
QUOTE
I think I remember New York being hit by a powerful Earthquake


Yeah, me too. In 1737 and 1884, both Magnitude 5. Not a big deal for Los Angeles, but moderately devastating in New York. Still, the fault system in question can easily generate a 6 or a 7 which would flatten a lot of the buildings made of unreinforced masonry. The previous recorded earthquakes were 147 years apart, and the last one was 122 years in the past.

Earthquake + New York isn't a weird impossible scenario - it's specifically one of the ocurences that FEMA regarded as a "likely"major disaster. The fact is that New York is not prepared for an earthquake and it is widely believed to be "impossible" - despite the act that we're actually due for one in less than 30 years.

-Frank
Jack Kain
The did have global warming but nuclear winter canceled it out.
Charon
Well, waddya know. Google agrees. New York sometimes has Eartquakes.

Anyone warned Donald Trump?
psykotisk_overlegen
Well, they are farming grain in Antarctica in 2070 IIRC. All the strange weather in the sixth world is probably partially caused by global warming and both L.A. and parts of the Netherlands are flooded. Personally I'll go with fishfarms on the north pole and a lack of atoll islands by 2070, but I'm not sure SR canon displays global warming that prominently.
SL James
Global warming is not why L.A., parts of the Netherlands and most of Denmark are underwater exactly.

QUOTE (Charon)
Anyone warned Donald Trump?

And ruin the insane mocking laughter coming from Roise O'Donnell? Are you crazy?

QUOTE (FrankTrollman)
Of course, maybe it isn't enough because a lot of LA is under wter - which is consistent with some global warming weather models.

Well, not the mountains being underwater.
Pthgar
Maybe global warming was overblown and is seen as alarmist psuedo-science in the 2070's, similiar to how the new-age crystal stuff is scoffed at by actual mages.
Draug
As far as I know, weather patterns in the Sixth World make for thoroughly shitty weather conditions all over the planet, right? Rain, sludge, etc. Sounds like something's going down, at least.

However, with the reduction of fossilized fuels, reduction of the increasing population (and therefore the increasing consumption) thanks to VITAS (there's another conspiracy for you!) and all the magic that's going on, perhaps the whole thing has slowed down again, so that it's not really that high.

Still, I want to agree with Charon: Worst-case scenarios are the preferable ones for this genre, so bring on the global heating!
SL James
There is also the conflicting effect of global cooling arising from the depositing of tons of particulate shit into the atmosphere. The Great Ghost Dance alone would have neutered the global warming trend for another decade or two. The Ring of Fire conflagrations in 2061 would have set it back further.
Lovesmasher
L.A. could be underwater without any further developments in global warming. It's the ol' continental divide.

New York generally sees Donald Trump as a joke. Have you ever seen the movie Layer Cake? In it there's a millionaire guy who is almost entirely without class. He's kept around the upper crust because he's crass and entertaining and fun to laugh at. He's not there because he's powerful or has friends.

In the high end real estate mogul world, Donald Trump is the equivalent of Wal-Mart.
BookWyrm
Sounds to me like the Big Apple is due. And I live an hour's train ride form Manhattan. :rolleyes:
Magus
::waves hand (Jedi Gesture):: There is no Global Warming


::Waves Hand:: Al Gore is a Poof!!
otaku mike
SoA's chapter on Oceania has, IIRC, some plots on rising sea levels and islands disapearing underwater in the pacific.
Kesslan
Yeah, I think it's not so much that it doesnt happen it just doesnt quite present itself.

Still to this day I have people say to me there's no such thing as global warming.

Riiight.. So the perma frost in the arctic has been thawing for the past few years because of what then?

That huge ass iceberg that broke off Elsmir Island just.. happened because right? Surely ice melting couldnt possibly be the cause!

The fact that it's been statistically proven that Ottawa (the city I live in) has seen less and less snow over the years, cant possibly be due to mythical global warming!

Never mind that 10 years ago every winter the piles of snow along our driveway would go to at least my shoulders if not right over my head.

This year I've had to shovel the driveway only twice.

There has yet to be any snow over an inch or two.

We used to get over half a foot on a regular basis start as early as October.
Blade
QUOTE (Kesslan)
Never mind that 10 years ago every winter the piles of snow along our driveway would go to at least my shoulders if not right over my head.

No, it's just that you've grown up since then wink.gif

More seriously, even if I don't doubt global warming, all the climate changes may not be related to it.
SL James
*ahem*

QUOTE (SL James)
There is also the conflicting effect of global cooling arising from the depositing of tons of particulate shit into the atmosphere. The Great Ghost Dance alone would have neutered the global warming trend for another decade or two. The Ring of Fire conflagrations in 2061 would have set it back further.

Charon
QUOTE (SL James @ Dec 30 2006, 09:43 PM)
*ahem*

QUOTE (SL James)
There is also the conflicting effect of global cooling arising from the depositing of tons of particulate shit into the atmosphere. The Great Ghost Dance alone would have neutered the global warming trend for another decade or two. The Ring of Fire conflagrations in 2061 would have set it back further.

These ponctual events only screw up the climate for a short time, AFAIK.

For example, in the late 19th century the Krakatoa erupted so violently that it cooled down the earth by one degree for about 5 years.

But once the particules falls down its back to normal. It doesn't change the big picture, just offer for a ponctual shading of the earth, so to speak.

We kinda need another one of those giant eruption like the Krakatoa. We had to wait until after christmas to get snow this year! wink.gif
SL James
Well if magic can cause mountains to collapse into the Pacific Ocean, I'm sure it can keep the ash from the Pacific Rim exploding in 2061 swirling in the atmosphere for more than five years.
wind_in_the_stones
I think climate change due to global warming would remove the game world too far from the real world. It would remove part of our frame of reference. And we'd spend too much time roleplaying the weather, and less time doing corp politics, racism, dragons and such.

And besides, who wants to predict what things will really be like? Sure we could say that half of Florida is underwater, but would Seattle be an arid wasteland? Would the heat have driven most of the North American population to Athabaska? Many theories center on the unpredictability and violence of the weather, rather than the temperature itself. Maybe hurricanes are coming off the north Pacific? And once you have this change to the planet, how do you integrate it into the historical setting?

Sure, it's easy to envision a corporate court with an orbital facility, or ancient great dragons - they're just people when you get down to it. But who wants to devote a chapter to the weather and its mechanics? Personally, always include the weather in my games - high pollution index, hella thunderstorms, dust storms blowing in from Puyallup, hot clear brownskies - and I think it's cool when people go farther than that, but I think the rules are better off not to dwell.
Charon
QUOTE (SL James)
Well if magic can cause mountains to collapse into the Pacific Ocean, I'm sure it can keep the ash from the Pacific Rim exploding in 2061 swirling in the atmosphere for more than five years.

Yeah but just saying 'It's magic' is pretty useless.

What's going on? Who is doing that powerful ritual magic? What do they need to keep it going? Are there dangerous side effect?

As I said earlier, this kind of things can make a whole campaign.
ornot
I think that if you want to include global warming effects in your game, then more power to you. But overall I agree with wind in the stones that devoting a whole lot of time to it will just detract from other occurances within the 6th World.

It's not even particularly clear what the effects of global warming will be. Sea level rises are unlikely to be rapid enough to require panic evacuations of small islands. Those poor folk are far more likely to be on the receiving end of unpredictable changes in weather patterns.

There's no reason why the changes that are taking place will be so fast that global warming will even be at the forfront of everyones mind. However it could, as you say, make for an interesting story, perhaps if the runners were of an ecological disposition, doing cut price runs for terra-first or something.
SL James
QUOTE (Charon @ Dec 31 2006, 12:02 AM)
QUOTE (SL James @ Dec 31 2006, 12:40 AM)
Well if magic can cause mountains to collapse into the Pacific Ocean, I'm sure it can keep the ash from the Pacific Rim exploding in 2061 swirling in the atmosphere for more than five years.

Yeah but just saying 'It's magic' is pretty useless.

Eh. "Magic!" as a response is pretty useful IMO because it tends to match the amount of intellectual effort put into causing the problem in the first place.
Big D
Err, don't forget that the Little Ice Age, which had a number of effects on world history, is just now really wrapping up.

I think the question is less whether global warming exists, and more whether "GLOBAL WARMING!!!!11!one" in the human-caused, apocalyptic sense exists.

Oh, and don't forget that Mars is experiencing global warming, too (yes, I'm showing my bias here).
adamu
I'm no scientist, but I once made studying global warming my hobby for three months. Tried to skip Newsweek and CNN and read journal articles, critiques thereof, and the critiques of the critiques.
Tried to find ANYTHING that seemed even halfway non-political - but that was a joke.
Found lots of arguments in favor of taking drastic measures to forestall global warming, all based on the idea that people thought it might happen.
Found lots of arguments saying the measures suggested would be extremely costly not only in terms of money but also economic development of struggling economies, especially in light of the fact that no one could prove there would be any global warming.
Then the other side would come back, admit they couldn't PROVE anything, but say that no price was too high, since global warming MIGHT happen, and if it did, it MIGHT be REALLY REALLY bad.
And the best part was, that whichever camp I was reading from, they were all using the same data sets.

I think it is really great that we have the science to identify this potential threat, and that there are a wide variety of ideas about how to respond.
And I think it is double really great that, within the scientific community, there is a lively and very 2-sided debate going on about the issue.

I just wish the debate were as interesting and two-sided in the mainstream media...and other forums for discussion.
Thane36425
QUOTE (adamu)
I'm no scientist, but I once made studying global warming my hobby for three months. Tried to skip Newsweek and CNN and read journal articles, critiques thereof, and the critiques of the critiques.
Tried to find ANYTHING that seemed even halfway non-political - but that was a joke.
Found lots of arguments in favor of taking drastic measures to forestall global warming, all based on the idea that people thought it might happen.
Found lots of arguments saying the measures suggested would be extremely costly not only in terms of money but also economic development of struggling economies, especially in light of the fact that no one could prove there would be any global warming.
Then the other side would come back, admit they couldn't PROVE anything, but say that no price was too high, since global warming MIGHT happen, and if it did, it MIGHT be REALLY REALLY bad.
And the best part was, that whichever camp I was reading from, they were all using the same data sets.

I think it is really great that we have the science to identify this potential threat, and that there are a wide variety of ideas about how to respond.
And I think it is double really great that, within the scientific community, there is a lively and very 2-sided debate going on about the issue.

I just wish the debate were as interesting and two-sided in the mainstream media...and other forums for discussion.

Very good points here. One thing that seems to be missed is the sun itself. During the Medieval Warm period, when temperatures were about 4 or 5 degrees F warmer than today, the sun's output was somewhere between 0.5% and 1% higher than today. During the Little Ice Age when temperatures were about the same amount lower, the sun had dropped its output by about the same amount as well. All accounts are that the sun is entering a more active period, more than just the usual 22 year cycle.

Just how bad things will get is open to speculation. If it only gets as warm as the Medieval warm period, it should be too bad. Conditions will be much better for crops and winters will be milder. That will be balanced by hotter summers and more hurricanes, probably. We survived and even thrived last time though, and had an easier time than during the later Little Ice Age.

Humans are, of course, having an impact. We are adding carbon to the atmosphere and are paving the world at an astonishing rate. That will have an effect, but it must be kept in mind that all that heat is coming from the sun. If the sun decides to become less hospitable than is has been for about the last 300 years, and it will, then that will change the entire heat balance regardless of what we are doing. I find it rather amusing that some many think the climate should be stable all the time when the record shows that it is anything but. The climate isn't going to suddenly act nice just because we have our advanced society now.

As for global warming in the game, maybe it is having an effect, but as many others have pointed out, there is all kinds of wild weather in SR. Global Warming could be a part of that, but just as easily not. Really though, I think it is an issue best left in the background and to individual GMs. If Fanpro took a side one way or the other on global warming, it would tick off plenty of people.
Charon
What are you talking about adamu?

The Earth has warmed up in the 20th century and we have the numbers to prove it. More to the point, it has risen significantly in the past 30 years or so by an aeverage of one degree which is a lot in a short time. We keep tight record since the late 19th century so this at least we know without a doubt. Or without having to resort to anecdotal evidence like looking outside my window to see it's raining in January, again! It never used to do that 20 years ago in Montréal.

What's still controversial in some circles is : Is it due to human actions and the Greenhouse effect?

Because it is well known that Earth warms up and cools down significantly over prolonged period, no matter what humans do. The recent rage about global warming is due to the assumption that we make matter worse through our pollution and the Greenhouse effect.

But no matter whose fault it is, rapid climate change over a short period are a challenge for a planet so populated as ours.
Fix-it
QUOTE (Charon)
What are you talking about adamu?

The Earth has warmed up in the 20th century and we have the numbers to prove it. More to the point, it has risen significantly in the past 30 years or so by an aeverage of one degree which is a lot in a short time. We keep tight record since the late 19th century so this at least we know without a doubt.

but we don't have a baseline to compare it to, as we have no records beyond the late 1800s.

sure we can make edumacated guesses by looking at tree rings, and ice core and sediment samples, but they really don't know much.
Charon
We have a fairly clear pictures of the past 2000 years and reasonable guesses going back much farther.

We know with a high degree of confidence that the Earth is currently at its warmest in the past 400 years. And this change has occured over the past 30 years.

We can argue the cause (Greenhouse effect? Sun intensity?) and about the future trend (How much warmer can we seriously expect it to get? When will it cool?), but not the data itself. Unless you are of serious bad faith.

The current consensus amongst most of the people who actually have enough knowledge on the subject to make an educated theory is that green house effect plays a significant role and that the warming will continue. It would be prudent to listen to them.
adamu
Well, the thing is, in my reading, I have seen all that data, and I have seen paper after paper point out holes in the methodology of the data collection. And then others come back and defend the data. And so on ad infinitum. I am not saying the data is wrong, and I certainly am not suggesting anyone has falsified it. But I don't think questioning the degree of its validity, and thorougly examining both its strengths and limitations, necessarily warrants being accused of arguing in bad faith.

As for consensus, I have seen a strong consensus in the media, but none whatsoever in the scientific community (despite the media's attempt to say there is one). There just too many scientists questioning almost all of the premises that have been discussed here. And for every big petition signed by umpteen jazillion scientists attesting to the importance of the issue or the likelihood of that or the possibility of this (no one claims to have proven anything), there is another big petition floating around denouncing the theory.

I sincerely wish I knew the extent of the problem - if it is a threat, how bad it will be, what can humans do, do humans have anything to do with it at all. And I am glad so many people are interested in it and studying it further.

But I really don't think the matter has been laid to rest in any satisfactory manner.
Kesslan
Well the ones denouncing the theory dont really know what their talking about. The real main issue with global warming. Isnt ultimately the fact that the earth is warming up. It is only really the rate at which it is warming up that is realy causing issues. I mean you go back far enough in the history of the Earth and you have tropical trees where you currently have permafrost.

Alot of people go 'oh well it's only a few degrees change thats not a big deal' or others simply say that there -is- no warming, and no signs of it dispite the very real proof to the contrary. I mean I seriously cant -ever- remember a winter as mild around here as this one has been so far. Allready into January and not a single snowdrift anywhere, where as by now it should at least be up to my waist at the side of the driveway going by previous years.

Not to mention actual temperature records back this up. I mean weather around here lately has be ABOVE zero on a regular basis, or lower sub zero celcius.

THe fact that there's a petition going around stating that global warming is a myth doesnt supprise me either. Afterall this is the human race we are talking about here. And I think the fact that we've got a 'scentology' religion of all things kicking around says enough about that.

If you want references to the studies it would be easy enough for me to get as well since my father spent several years before his retirement working soley on climate change studies.

I mean you get these huge chunks of ice that have been around for a million years suddenly melting enough to break off. Alot of people have a 'so what?' mentality about that but you have to actually look at the math behind it all.

BTU calculations alone would be rather staggering. It's been several years since I've worked with the conversions, but if I recall, for one of my courses we once worked out how many BTU's it would take to completely solidify a full sized deer. Then the output of your average household freezer. Assuming you didnt cut up the deer (and thus create more surface area), gut it etc, it came out to something like a week's time to freeze it completely rock solid all the way through.

Now thats at a constant, maintained temperature with no variation. Now with icebergs its much the same principle, except that your melting/freezing it instead and it can grow or shrink since it's made out of water. However lately in human history as far as this stuff has been actually studied, the ice is only ever really melting, and it's not at a steady rate either, but at an increasing rate.

There are other signs as well. Deserts expanding at an easily measurable rate, life forms unable to adapt to such relatively rapid temperature differences are dying off, areas that were once forrested are now turning into desert in some areas without the outside interference of man (As in logging).

There is also conclusive evidence that while the earth may be warming up naturally, we are most certainly -accelerating- that process. Thats an important thing to watch at the very least, becuase while it doesnt directly affect humans, given that we can easily adapt to such changes, other life forms on earth cannot. And that messes up with the great food chain.

That alone is a rather complex thing and goes from large animals eating other large animals (Such as humans eating cows) to micro organisms eating each other. Ultimately it works its way up as bigger and bigger things eat the smaller. Kill off enough of the smaller things and suddenly the bigger ones are effected untill suddenly you have an elephant that dies of starvation kinda thing.

Thats really abit of an exageration, but not really. Some of these organisms at various levels are -not- as adaptable as humans. Most importantly becuase they dont have many of the skills we do.

If we are cold we can warm ourselves with fire and clothing, if we are hot we can help regulat our body through sweat and hell, even air conditioning. With the right equipment man can live in space, where very little life can survive. Equally we can go deep down in the ocean and back with submarines and diving equipment. Far beyond our natural capacity to do so.

Now take all that away. Best analogy might be locking some one in a temperature controled freezer. Start off at room temperature, feed em regulairly etc. Assume in this environment the person can live as easily in the freezer as anywhere else. Except that youv'e removed their ability to artificially generate warmth.

Now slowly start lowering the temperature 1-2 degrees over a period of several years.

Eventually the person will get hypothermia and die assuming a cold or something else doesnt get them first. It may take longer becuase humans are an intelligent and complex organism. But ultimately without the tools or the time needed to adapt to the new environmental difference, death is inevitable. Evolution can help, but it does not work in the space of a single generation. It takes thousands to millions of years to make any noticeable changes.

And that. Is really where the problem is. Even if scientists dont all agree on the -cause- most certainly agree on the effect, and that humans are having some sort of impact uppon it all, and that it is currently quite negative. We can however, equally have a slightly more balanced impact uppon our environment. This is why many modern logging companies dont just start at one end of a forrest and clearcut all the way to the other end leaving nothing behind. And that's just one tiny aspect.

As a whole, humanity proves that it has a negative impact uppon nature such as it is. Because we as a species do not adapt to an area, we adapt it to suit us. Not allways without concequences however, such as very recent history has proven once again.

Part of the reason you never have this sort of thing portrayed in RPGs however is because, quite simply, it's far too complex. Afterall if suddenly everyone started using electric cars, how much of an actual impact would that have on the environment? That there would be a relatievly significant one there is no doubt, but how much of an actual overall one there would be is.
adamu
Well, I have pretty much said what I wanted to say - which is simply that, based on the research I have done, there is no real scientific consensus nor a provable conclusion regarding either mankind's long-term impact or future climatic developments.

Certainly there are some that disagree with me vociferously. I applaud that, and see it as the sort of passion which, bridled, can help lead us to more solid, verifiable conclusions upon which to determine a viable course.

I do not dispute any of the scientific tidbits offered by various fellow SR players above - neither the statistical nor the anecdotal. I have, however, seen refutations and counterpoints to all of them. Enough that I am not willing to start making disparaging or ad hominem remarks about any of the sources. I think that is just about the one thing we can do wrong in examining this issue.

Now if I myself were more passionate, I suppose this could become a big Internet data pissing match, but I'd much rather spend my time playing SR, and with the holiday season drawing to a close, my players will soon begin posting more heavily.

So I am going to leave off this topic, grateful to all that are pursuing it, for I think it is important. I only type this last note out of courtesy - don't want to come across as a hit-and-run debate sniper. Indeed, I appreciate having the chance to make my one little observation about the need for more extensive and reasoned debate.

Thank you.
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