The model that the US has been pushing for 40+ years is combined arms operations. Tanks, Infantry, Artillery and Air Support all have their individual strengths and weaknesses. But combinations of all of the above allow a force to mitigate their weaknesses without significantly hurting their strengths. While I'm sure that the tools we'll be working with in 2070 will be significantly different than what we have today, I believe that this basic principle will still hold true.

So, I believe that the most effective force will have a combination of Drones/Heavy Armor/Infantry/Paranimals/Spirits/Magic, backed up by Artillery/Air Support/Ritual Magic/Spell Defense, and supported by attached ECM/ECCM. All of the pieces will make important contributions, it's just a question of how much of each type would be necessary.

Drones provide a huge amount more 'bang for the buck', but lack the the flexibility/adaptibility/intelligent decision making of humans (who are generalists by design). They can lay down a hell of a field of fire, but won't be as good at discrimitating friend from foe from neutrals, navigating unexpected terrain, 'winning hearts and minds', working independently if/when commo goes down, etc. If you're in a prepared defensive position with no civilians (Desert Wars) and controled avenues of approach, the drone-to-man ratio might be 20-to-1, but if you're conducting MOUT ops in an occupied civilian city that you need to hold with minimal infrastructure damage, the ratio might only by 1-to-1 or 2-to-1.

Okay. Assuming that the back of the napkin calculations there are true, I'll concede 10-20 years is possibly wrong.

But the most powerful computer permitted by physics taking a billion years? I don't see support for that claim. (Especially since I'm not quite sure that we know exactly what physics permits.)

EDIT: And beyond the notion that we don't know exactly what physics permits, we don't know exactly what math permits. Assume someone shatters the world and proves P=NP; those calculations disintegrate before the might of an algorithm created in a world where P=NP.

(Which, as I've said before, if P=NP, that would explain a lot about why Shadowrun encryption is so weak.)

The US military does indeed have numerous drones slated to come out over the next several decades, but most are for either non-combat or very specialized roles. One is a drone cargo truck, which has the obvious utility of reducing the number of REMFs needed for each soldier. There are also smaller "mule" UGVs for resupplying troops in the field. Pretty much all drones, even the ones design for the purpose of direct combat, are being design to support real troops, not replace them.

In order to have encryption not work it has to be universal. There are at least a dozen different encryption systems out there that are considered highly secure and they work in all sorts of ways.

As this isn't reflected in the rules in other places (as in you can miss with a gun, as real time solutions to complex ballistic system of equations is trivial compared to universally solving encryption, and you can crash you car, as total stability and vehicle control is also trivial in comparison) I don't think this retrocon is plausible.

And I though about somewhere between discovery of fire and printing press, but I didn't want to push the comparison.

LMG-toting drones make sense to include with a mechanized infantry group... they're not that large (you could carry several field-stripped ones in the back of a humvee equivalent), they provide surveillance and firepower, and dragging the extra equipment around to turn them into a pretty serious perimeter without exposing your soldiers or vehicles to as much as you would otherwise is easy.

With light infantry units, I can see going more the route of recon and close combat drones (like the iBall), but light infantry units do pass on a lot of the firepower available to the more conventional mechanized units simply to meet their design requirements, and recon is sort of their thing.

<i>How large are the CAS/UCAS/NAN/Atzlan armies in 2070, and how are they armed/equiped/enhanced? Do you picture them as a relatively small, elite force, or are they huge hordes of mostly expendable nobodies?

My take is that they would have large numbers of expendable cannon fodder in the infantry. They would have very little in the way of personal enhancements, but would be very well equiped. (Why spend money implanting a smartlink in PVT Snuffy when it's cheaper to give him smart goggles, and when you can get the goggles back at the end of his service agreement? And if they're going back into the civilian sector, how deadly do you want them to be?)

Cyberware could then be offered to more senior soldiers as re-enlistment encentives. (Re-up for 5 years and we'll throw in your choice of Wired Reflexes or Bone Lacing!)

What do you think the equipment list would look like for a light infantry squad?</i>

Just to riff on the good stuff in this post, you'll probably have some differences based on where the nation is, who they think they're fighting and the resources they have. In general, I imagine the military will rely much more on drones and spirits. Some breakdowns.

Tech Heavy Infantry
Country Characteristics: These countries will have a strong tech base, plenty of money and a expensive, but well educated labor force. Much like the U.S., Japan or U.K. today. For missions that require lots of boots on the ground, they will probably contract out the work. The Imperial Marines would be the best example in Shadowrun.
Terrain: A high reliance on drones, tanks, etc, makes them better suited to rapid deployment in large open areas. They might not have the manpower to hold ground in large urban, mountain and jungle areas where the terrain favors lightly equipped locals who know the terrain.
Average Squad: The fighting force will probably be broken up into squads trained for fighting and tech support squads. The fighting squad is likely made up of one drone rigger with well trained and highly cybered marines supported by multiple drones. The military will probably have a long tail with a lot of technical support making up the bulk of the force.
Key Gear: Milspec armor, Military Grade Comlinks, Helmets with all the best vision and hearing enhancements, Wired 1 or 2 reflexes (Alpha), Bone Lacing (Aluminum or Titanium) (Alpha), Datajack, Control Rigs, Knowledge & Lingua softs, Sleep Regulator, Muscle Aug or Muscle Toner.
Key Skills: At least one member of each squad with good ECCM, Piloting and Technical Skills with other members trained to take over if the lead Rigger falls.

Light/Cheap Infantry
Country Characteristics: Relatively poor countries with lots of cheap, uneducated labor to draft/conscript into the infantry. And a culture that won't or can't object to you treating your infantry like sh*t. Good real world examples would be Russia and China, especially during the cold war. Azatlan would be the prime example in Shadowrun.
Average Squad: A bunch of grunts with combat drugs lead by a non-com with either some technical skills or some basic cyber.
Terrain: Quick deployments and air coverage in open areas would be their Achilles heal - drones, tanks, air support would cut them down. They would be better in jungles, urban areas and mountains where they can flood the zone with cheap troops.
Key Gear: Combat Drugs, Wired 1, Aluminum Bone Lacing, Datajack (for the virtual instruction).
Key Skills: Basic combat skills probably honed quickly by virtual instruction.

Magical Infantry
Country Characteristics: Awakened countries with lots of magical support to draw on. Companies would probably be based around a Amazonia would be the prime example in Shadowrun.
Terrain: Close quarter terrains were good tactics and their innate strength can overcome small numbers (i.e. cities, jungles, etc.).
Average Squad: Probably varies greatly from specialists squads made of adepts, shapeshifters, etc. As a force extender, they might have squads based around a non-com with magical skills (shapeshifter, free spirit, shaman, phys ad) and a number of mundane troops with basic combat gear acting as support. Bound spirits are likely attached to each squad.
Key Gear: Binding materials, foci, fetishes, magical or natural combat drugs.
Key Skills: Magical knowledge and active skills, survival skills, close and ranged combat skills.