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Simon May
QUOTE (Angelone)
Isn't your chances of hitting a 10 or a 1 the same? Even if you don't hit any 10s you aren't nessicarily going to hit any 1s so you'll just fail the check. One thing that kinda was funny but upsetting when it happened to you was rolling a 10 and then when the die exploded you got a 1 on the next roll.

Mathematically, the odds state that for every 10 you roll, you should also roll a 1. That doesn't make it a hard and true fact, just as flipping a quarter in math is 50/50 while it's actually closer to 52/48 thanks to physics and the weight of the heads side. Regardless, basic odds state that mathematically you would never succeed at TN 10 if 1s wipe out 10s.

Also, even in oWoD, the system wasn't broken enough that a rerolled 1 would wipe out any of your previous 10s.
Critias
Which means, even in the best case of a 10/1 having good odds of "cancelling each other out," it still means that they create a situation where the dice pool (and as such the stats of your character) don't fucking matter.

Say the difficulty 10 situation is a called shot to the head, with a pistol, in low light conditions (pretty common stuff, right?). You're trying to take out some leather-and-denim clad vampire in a back alley behind a nightclub somewhere, and you want the extra damage of a headshot.

Shouldn't it matter whether you've got a Dex of 5 (the absolute best a human being can ever have) and a Firearms of 5 (better than most DELTA operatives) or are a bumbling clumsy oaf with a Dex of 1 and an absolute 0 in Firearms and have never handled a gun before in your life?

Well, sorry, too bad. It doesn't.
Narse
Ok, I have to post because some of the things being posted here are doing nasty things to math. First of all, having 10's cancelled out by 1's does not mean that you will never succeed. You still have a finite chance of success, but it is a bitch to calculate for someone like me who has no training with probabilities (I can work them out though). Note: this is a flaw of almost every TN system where you are rolling more than 1 die. (d20 tests are child's play to calculate).
Secondly: Your pool size does matter if the number of successes matter. You might have the same odds of achieving 1 success as someone with a smaller pool, but (and this should be readily obvious) you can obtain more total successes(i.e someone with a DP of 3 can only hope for 3 successes [I guess this might be modified depending on how explosions were handled in oWoD]). I don't know if this matters in oWoD, but it did in SR3. Anyhow, this seems fairly academic as the system was revised and addressed some of these problems. You don't see people on these forms bitching about SR1 rules (this is just an example, I have no SR1 experience) without mentioning how they think latter systems did as far as correcting the perceived problem.

@Kagetenshi
I don't understand your hatred of SR4's modified pool, fixed TN system. Most characters (PC & NPC) have pools >= 4 and thus can succeed on all the tests I can think of (no thresholds higher than 4) [it should be noted that SR3 also had some checks that required a number of successes > 1 and thus were not possible for everybody, e.g. damage resistance]. Even if you are reduced to making a check you could not possibly succeed on, then you can spend edge to make the check. I am not familiar with occurrences where success was not at least possible (if improbable).
Kagetenshi
QUOTE (Narse)
First of all, having 10's cancelled out by 1's does not mean that you will never succeed.

No, it doesn't. I don't believe anyone claimed it does, and if it was claimed, it was almost certainly by accident.

QUOTE
You still have a finite chance of success, but it is a bitch to calculate for someone like me who has no training with probabilities (I can work them out though). Note: this is a flaw of almost every TN system where you are rolling more than 1 die. (d20 tests are child's play to calculate).

It's still pretty simple for this—for exactly s successes on n dice, it's just ∑(i=s…n) (1/10)^((i)*(i-s)), unless my exhaustion-addled brain is missing something. To get at least s successes, just change references to s to another variable of summation which ranges from s to n.

There are prettier ways to express it that are less obnoxious to calculate, but the basic idea is simple.

QUOTE
Secondly: Your pool size does matter if the number of successes matter. You might have the same odds of achieving 1 success as someone with a smaller pool, but (and this should be readily obvious) you can obtain more total successes(i.e someone with a DP of 3 can only hope for 3 successes [I guess this might be modified depending on how explosions were handled in oWoD]).

But that only shifts the flaw—as long as you have enough dice for the test to be possible, it's just as easy or difficult as anyone else for whom it is possible.

QUOTE
Anyhow, this seems fairly academic as the system was revised and addressed some of these problems. You don't see people on these forms bitching about SR1 rules (this is just an example, I have no SR1 experience) without mentioning how they think latter systems did as far as correcting the perceived problem.

You certainly would if the discussion were about SR1. A question was asked about WoD, with no version specified, and the assertion that the nWoD rules were decent in theory had already been made. The missing information was how abysmally awful the oWoD rules were, so I supplied it. I don't really feel the need to say "but they made it better!" every time I do that, especially since they shouldn't have gotten it that wrong in the first place.

QUOTE
I don't understand your hatred of SR4's modified pool, fixed TN system. Most characters (PC & NPC) have pools >= 4 and thus can succeed on all the tests I can think of

You're forgetting modifiers, which can bring the pool down below the threshold (or zero).

QUOTE
[it should be noted that SR3 also had some checks that required a number of successes > 1 and thus were not possible for everybody, e.g. damage resistance].

Yes, you are correct. I considered it one of the flaws of the system, and was thus displeased when it was dramatically amplified in SR4.

QUOTE
Even if you are reduced to making a check you could not possibly succeed on, then you can spend edge to make the check. I am not familiar with occurrences where success was not at least possible (if improbable).

No edge remaining is the most obvious example. With no thresholds lower than 4 there cannot be any tests with success odds lower than ~1.23% but above 0.

~J
farrenj
QUOTE (Kagetenshi)
QUOTE (Narse)
First of all, having 10's cancelled out by 1's does not mean that you will never succeed.

No, it doesn't. I don't believe anyone claimed it does, and if it was claimed, it was almost certainly by accident.


QUOTE (Simon May)
Regardless, basic odds state that mathematically you would never succeed at TN 10 if 1s wipe out 10s.


QUOTE (Kagetenshi)
they shouldn't have gotten it that wrong in the first place.


But they did. And, a long time afterwards, they fixed it. I think we can all agree that oWoD dice rolling left a lot to be desired. But I imagine anyone that's coming here to read or participate in a discussion on WoD rules wants to talk about nWoD rules. Otherwise we can just say, "oWoD fucked up" and leave it at that.

Edit: Quoted way too much in the first go round.
Fortune
QUOTE (farrenj)
But I imagine anyone that's coming here to read or participate in a discussion on WoD rules wants to talk about nWoD rules.

The exact same thing can be said about Shadowrun, yet there is still a Forum on Dumpshock for the discussion of editions other than SR4.
Kagetenshi
QUOTE (farrenj)
QUOTE (Kagetenshi)
QUOTE (Narse)
First of all, having 10's cancelled out by 1's does not mean that you will never succeed.

No, it doesn't. I don't believe anyone claimed it does, and if it was claimed, it was almost certainly by accident.


QUOTE (Simon May)
Regardless, basic odds state that mathematically you would never succeed at TN 10 if 1s wipe out 10s.

Definitely missed that (stupid page changes—100 posts/page is too few!). Your expected successes do become zero, but that was without question an incorrect statement.

QUOTE
I think we can all agree that oWoD dice rolling left a lot to be desired. But I imagine anyone that's coming here to read or participate in a discussion on WoD rules wants to talk about nWoD rules. Otherwise we can just say, "oWoD fucked up" and leave it at that.

You should imagine otherwise in the context of a quote discussing the history of WoD, wherein rules that are most certainly oWoD are called "decent". In fact, given how recent nWoD is, this is a bad assumption in the first place.

~J
Simon May
QUOTE (Kagetenshi)
Your expected successes do become zero, but that was without question an incorrect statement.

I really don't like arguing semantics, but the word "mathematically" modifies the phrase "you would never succeed at TN 10 if 1s wipe out 10s." In that context that means that within a perfectly constructed theoretical realm of mathematics, assuming all math is perfectly true, that would be the case. It does not mean that is the case when working outside a perfectly constructed theoretical realm of mathematics, as we actually do.
Kagetenshi
I will remind you that probability is very solidly within the realm of mathematics. If you want I can do the combinatorial analysis for you (after I'm done with my research paper, graded stuff comes first), but as a discrete math major, let me assure you that mathematically, you absolutely will, at times, succeed at TN 10 if 1s wipe out 10s.

Edit: the short, informal, and unsupported version is this: there exist combinations of possible dierolls such that the number of 1s, m, and the number of 10s, n, obey the inequality n>m≥0 , therefore you can succeed at the test.

~J
Narse
I think we can all agree that oWoD rules leave something to be desired and nWoD rules are an improvement.

@Kagetenshi
Thanks for clarifying your remarks about the SR systems. Just out of curiosity, what kind of system would you prefer? and is there an easy way of simulating it? It sounded like what you were describing would be a system where the numerical result of a test can be represented with a normal distribution of infinite range (I haven't taken statistics so I'm not sure if that is the proper way of saying it) and a mean result based on skill level and/or aptitude.

QUOTE
It's still pretty simple for this—for exactly s successes on n dice, it's just ∑(i=s…n) (1/10)^((i)*(i-s))

meh, its easier for me to just write a program to run a simulation of the rolling and have it output the results of 10,000 (or more) iterations than to reteach myself how to do n-ary summations.
Kagetenshi
QUOTE (Narse)
Just out of curiosity, what kind of system would you prefer? and is there an easy way of simulating it? It sounded like what you were describing would be a system where the numerical result of a test can be represented with a normal distribution of infinite range (I haven't taken statistics so I'm not sure if that is the proper way of saying it) and a mean result based on skill level and/or aptitude.

I'm not sure, to be honest—most of my time has been spent thinking about ways to tweak Shadowrun's system to be closer to what I desire, rather than coming up with a system that may be totally different but provides my desired probability distribution. The most obvious way to counter impossibility in SR3 is to allow people to buy dice on a 1 die for +1 TN basis (possibly capped at dice=necessary successes), but that breaks down several places—most notably places like rigging or social skills, where depending on the circumstances and gear/edge loadout you can encounter significantly negative TNs, resulting in a "free" and significant quantity of bonus dice to situations in which said characters are already very powerful. If it gets capped at dice=necessary successes, you also encounter problems like Skill n = Skill n+1 at TN 6*m (due to the 6=7 issue, which is a whole different mess).

In many ways, SR3 holds me back by being too good in too many ways. Because there's so much it does right, I need to make sure I don't break those bits when I fix something it does wrong, creating a giant nasty interwoven dependency mess.

QUOTE
QUOTE
It's still pretty simple for this—for exactly s successes on n dice, it's just ∑(i=s…n) (1/10)^((i)*(i-s))

meh, its easier for me to just write a program to run a simulation of the rolling and have it output the results of 10,000 (or more) iterations than to reteach myself how to do n-ary summations.

I'd suggest you just write the program to perform the summations for you smile.gif should be comparable in complexity (if you already have the formula), but will be precise instead of trending towards the correct answer.

And like I said, I'm pretty sure there's an easier-to-calculate way to express it, but 時間���。

~J
Blade
@Kagetenshi: Just out of curiosity, your biggest complaint about the SR4 system is that some actions can become impossible?
Kagetenshi
Not remotely. I'll clarify more when I gain full consciousness.

~J
Kagetenshi
Ok. It's hard to identify what I'd peg as my "biggest complaint", but impossibility is definitely not it. Some other complaints of similar or greater magnitude:

Glitching: adding one die to your pool will, half of the time, increase your chance of glitching, inverting the ordinary expectation.

Coarseness of the system: related to the impossibility issue but not identical. As I mentioned above, with an ordinary cap on threshold of four, the system cannot create odds of success less than 1.23% but greater than zero.

Abandonment of Shadowrun's roots/neophilia/fresh-off-of-Slashdot syndrome: the deemphasizing of cyberware, expansion of bio/geneware augmentation (an abomination which existed in third edition, certainly), the wireless matrix (which is nonsensical, particularly for the matrix as described), abuse of terminology ("hacker" and "firewall" being the two most obvious cases, as neither is remotely what the term claims it to be), ridiculous terminology ("rad" instead of "policlub", "technomancer" instead of "otaku" (though I'll grant that the now-well-known preexisting slang meaning does perhaps make the latter name undesirable)), RFID fetishism, the absolute ridiculousness of the Sakura Fubuki/metalstorm fetishism, it goes on and on and on.

The elimination of the most significant tool for tactical decision-making in the game (namely, pools).

The elimination of useful concealability ratings.

The dramatically smaller useful range of the ruleset (hard caps on attributes and skills at very low numbers, a system that cannot handle removal of those caps due to Immunity to Normal Modifiers at high pool sizes).

There's more, but homework calls.

~J
Blade
Ok. Thanks.
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