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Cain
QUOTE (lacemaker)
I've often wondered about the decline/price rise in real food - the explanation that strawberries cost more because they have been largley replaced by flavouring doesn't make the slightest bit of economic sense, so it must either be:

a) A gradual decline in the desire for "the real thing" in favour of an acceptance of artificial flavours

....

b) Areas formerly used to produce real food have become too damaged to use or have been given other to other uses


You forget about population rise and other price factors. As the population grows, food production won't be able to keep up, forcing prices higher.

Also, if artificial foods become dirt cheap, the demand for real food will lessen. That means, in order to make a profit, prices will have to rise. An accompanying trest establishing real foods as luxury items will help this substantially.

Both these can happen simultaneously, which could explain the situation. If real food production can't keep pace with demand, and cheap artifical foods can do so cheaper than real foods, the combination will cause this effect.
Kanada Ten
Also, large areas of agriculture became toxic due to pesticide chemicals and such. The Seretech decision happened because of the Food Riots.

Plus during the Awakening, how many normal plants became toxic? Maybe artificial food became safer than real food for a time - or just appeared to be.
Hida Tsuzua
The population problem isn't that bad in Shadowrun as one may think. Remember 25% of the world's population was killed only fifty years prior and there seems to have not been a baby boom (outside of the NAN) since considering all the wars, nuclear accidents, economic depressions, etc.

However the great wealth inequities of Shadowrun means that soy and other cheap sources of food (such as rice) would be a staple of low and lower lifestyles. Middle and High will see vat-grown food as well as crops grown on huge factory farms to varying degrees. Luxury would get to see organics and other fancy food stuffs like truffles. I see soy common in fast food and snacks with real food much less common than now, but still available to the average corp worker.
lacemaker
Hida's bang on on the population issue - and in any case food production (and land productivity) has grown faster than population throughout recorded history, even when a huge percentage of the population weren't keeling over with VITAS or being killed in wars etc...

As for the price effects, you've got the economics backwards - a fall in the demand for real food reduces the price, it doesn't increase it - unless demand falls so low that production of real food on an efficiently large scale becomes impossible - and for most food products the efficient scale isn't that big...

So the existence of a soy-substitute which was cheaper than real food, but which people didn't like as much would only serve to make real food cheaper - the same way rice imports are never going to wipe out steak consumption, or even make it more expensive.

Only if real food autonomously became more expensive as a proportion of average incomes - and remember that the real price of real food would continue to fall the same way it has over the last several centuries, would a less pleasant substitute drive it out - so rising income inequality, or land degradation are reasonable responses, but the mere existence of cheap soy isn't
Cain
QUOTE
and in any case food production (and land productivity) has grown faster than population throughout recorded history,...

Perhaps on a worldwide scale, but when I spent a summer teaching agriculture in China, I was told the exact opposite-- their food production was incapable of keeping pace with their population growth, even at the reduced rates. Shipping food has the side effect of raising prices considerably, as well.
QUOTE
As for the price effects, you've got the economics backwards - a fall in the demand for real food reduces the price, it doesn't increase it - unless demand falls so low that production of real food on an efficiently large scale becomes impossible - and for most food products the efficient scale isn't that big...

In theory, perhaps. In practice, as profits drop, businesses start losing money. In order to make up those profits, they need to raise prices. Failing that-- or concurrently with that-- businesses close down, thereby reducing supply and driving prices right back up.
QUOTE
So the existence of a soy-substitute which was cheaper than real food, but which people didn't like as much would only serve to make real food cheaper - the same way rice imports are never going to wipe out steak consumption, or even make it more expensive.

Sorry, but you're big-time wrong on this one. Let's use margarine as an example. When margarine first came on the market, people hated it. In fact, most people prefer the taste of butter to margarine, and every chef I know refuses to use margarine. But it's dirt cheap. What's the effect on prices Walk into any supermarket and see for yourself. Butter prices are sky-high, and margarine is a great seller. While I agree that margarine will never wipe out butter consumption, it can and does make a huge dent in it.
QUOTE
Only if real food autonomously became more expensive as a proportion of average incomes - and remember that the real price of real food would continue to fall the same way it has over the last several centuries, would a less pleasant substitute drive it out - so rising income inequality, or land degradation are reasonable responses, but the mere existence of cheap soy isn't

Remember betamax? Despite the fact that it was a superior product, a cheap substitute drove it out of existance (VHS). Just by existing, a cheap substitute can drive out, or at least severely hamper, a vastly superior product.
lacemaker
Sorry, I guess we're about to hijack the thread for a while...

There are studies asserting that China will face a food supply problem - Brown I believe - but they're predicated on economic growth turning agricultural land into manfucturing centers - nothing to do with productivity. Guys making this claim have existed all the way back to Malthus, with Paul Erlich being a recent example - it never happens, food production just keeps on rising relative to population, which is why we have a massive surplus worlwide at the moment.

Second, falling demand makes companies want to increase their prices, it doens't make them able to, becuase how much they can charge is determined competitively through interaction with demand - when demand falls business will, as you say, close, but only enough to return to an equilibrium with a lower price than when you started - and this is theoory and practice talking I can promise you...

Third - margarine - it's not really a good example because it has different qualities to butter rather than just a price differential - it keeps better and it spreads better and it's healthier - and in any case it's (a) not noticably cheaper (where I live anyway, milk subsidies may be an issue) (b) certainly hasn't actually increased butter prices relative to where they were when it came onto the market. It is a good example of people coming to terms with synth foods though, which is relevant to this thread.

Finally Betamax was a standards and compatability issue - VCR format suffer from a chicken and egg problem that make them uncompetitive. No one can make my real orange unsaleable simply by offering a fake one...
Crimsondude 2.0
QUOTE (Cain)
Remember betamax? Despite the fact that it was a superior product, a cheap substitute drove it out of existance (VHS). Just by existing, a cheap substitute can drive out, or at least severely hamper, a vastly superior product.

Didn't the porn industry adoption of VHS over Beta also play a major role in its adoption, though?
CardboardArmor
This only goes to show the tremendous power of pornography in our daily lives. Nothing in our day to day activities happens without the influence of porn.
Voran
It'd be funny to see how things in the computer world would have turned out if for some reason, using a Mac based computer gave superior internet porn experiences smile.gif
Cain
QUOTE
There are studies asserting that China will face a food supply problem - Brown I believe - but they're predicated on economic growth turning agricultural land into manfucturing centers - nothing to do with productivity.

I don't recall the studies I read, but the premise was that agricultural technology in China hadn't changed much over the last few thousand years. I can confirm that they still use buckets and ladles to irrigate crops in some areas, though. Without a significant technology improvement, China could easily be facing a food shortange issue shortly.
QUOTE
Second, falling demand makes companies want to increase their prices, it doens't make them able to,...

Point, but as companies close, supply decreases, thereby upping the price. In theory, it reaches an equilibrium close to the original sale price; in practice, prices could end up anywhere. Look at it this way-- when they stop making the cars that require Widget X, the demand falls, and companies stop making Widget X. So, the price for those parts first holds steady, then slowly increases over time. Try shopping for parts for an older vehicle, and you'll see what I mean.
QUOTE
Third - margarine - it's not really a good example because it has different qualities to butter rather than just a price differential - it keeps better and it spreads better and it's healthier - and in any case it's (a) not noticably cheaper (where I live anyway, milk subsidies may be an issue) (b) certainly hasn't actually increased butter prices relative to where they were when it came onto the market. It is a good example of people coming to terms with synth foods though, which is relevant to this thread.

Which is why I'm going to end with this point, since it's sorta on topic. I don't know where you live, but at my local Safeway, I can buy a box of cheap brand-name margarine for 99 cents; less for some brands, or if there's a sale. The cheapest (non-sale) price for butter is 3.99 per box. By a coincidence, there's a lot of margarine varieties availiable, and a huge display. Butter gets about a quarter of a shelf.

Now, margarine isn't actually *that* much healthier than butter (do a google search on trans fats to see why) and I'll be damned if I can get any cube of stuff to spread decently, be it butter *or* margarine. But margarine sells out like crazy, and butter demand stays even.

As I said before, cheap synthfood won't drive real foods off the market. But they will take a huge chunk out of the market for them. If you want another example, look at chocolate syrup. When you want to make something with it-- let's say you're making sundaes-- you'll probably buy Hershey's, or something similar. However, Hershey's syrup isn't real chocolate-- it's cocoa. You can find the jars of the real stuff in some stores, but because there's a cheap substitute, people generally don't buy it.

Or, here's another example. Check your shelves, and tell me what kind of pancake syrup you have. Odds are, you have something like "Golden Griddle" or "Mrs Butterworths". Well, neither of those are real maple syrup. Real maple syrup is readily availiable, and tastes far better than the imitation stuff; but most people don't care enough to shell out more money for a tiny jar of the stuff.

I could go on and on. McDonald's french fries are effectively a synthfood; so are marshmallows, so is Cool Whip. We've got lots and lots of synthfoods on the market today; and where we have cheap synthfoods, we see a reduced demand (and a price increase) in the real stuff.
lacemaker
I'm with you on synth foods cutting into the market for the real stuff, both now and in the future, but you'll notice it only happens with relatively pricey goods and not with staples (I don't accept that fries are in any way a synth food in the shadowrun sense btw) - soy meat I can buy because the real stuff costs a fair bit, soy caf I just can't, because the raw ingredient is so cheap...

What I still disagree on:

China - this is more a philosophical objection, people who talk about food security as a technology issue cause a lot of political problems. 500 million people have been lifted out of starvation in the past few decades, and most of them are in China. The fact that it's technology is so primitive really underline the opportunity for increases in productivity. Food shortages will not be an issue in the real world or the shadowrun world unless choas (or malice) disrupt supply. Anyway, it doesn't really matter for our purposes...

Price increases due to decreasing demand: I allow for the "spare parts for an old car" possibility you flag above - if demand drops so far that production can't be done on a large scale then the good can become boutique and expensive. In a nation the size of UCAS (even ignoring international trade, which might well dry up) even a radical (99%) fall in the demand for (say) beef would only lead to geographic concentration, never to boutique production. You'd just end up with 10 really, really big ranches, not 1000.

That follows to my general point, that , barring that inapplicable exception, less people wanting something means it sells for less - initially there will be a surplus supply which will be compensated for by firms scaling back production and ultimately less will be bought and the unit price will be lower. The alternative view invokes the risk of products spiraling out of existence altogether whenever demand drops, which doesn't happen (barring the efficient scale exception).

Butter: First the facts seem really odd - I can't help wondering whether you're looking at some kind of french cultured butter or the like - I (in Australia) regularly buy 250 grams (half a pound) for less than $1 (Aus), which is only a little more expensive than standard margarine .

In any case, what you're trying to show is not that a significantly cheaper substitute can't substantially cut into the market for the more expensive real product, but that the substitute actually makes the real product more expensive - you need to show me data on butter price increases as margarine came in to prove that - whereas I suspect that margarine (apart from health, convenience issues) flourished because it was cheaper from day one.
Siege
QUOTE (Voran)
It'd be funny to see how things in the computer world would have turned out if for some reason, using a Mac based computer gave superior internet porn experiences smile.gif

Quick! Someone invent the VR-Sim-Braindance experience that can only work on a Mac!

I wanna watch Bill Gates' expression when he finds out...grinbig.gif

"Blow your mind" porn becomes a real possibility.... cyber.gif

-Siege
Cain
History of margarine.

Now, notice that price controls were put in place, forcing margarine prices to match butter. Margarine still flourished, though; and that was before the health data came out. Because butter prices still continued to climb, margarine legislation was removed.

And for the record, I'm looking at Safeway prices for generic butter. The expensive cultured stuff costs a lot more.

I'll reply further when I have more time.
Connor
I think a decent example to put to beef is compare it to Buffalo(Bison) meat. The Buffalo meat usually costs about twice as much. I can see the same sort of price disparity between soymeat and regular beef in the 2060's. You'll probably pay about what it costs for a cheap grade of ground beef for the soy stuff and about twice that or a little more for the real thing.
Cain
That does bring an example to mind.

Okay, if you walk into your local supermarket and look at chickens, most of what you'll find is factory-farmed. They've been pumped full of antibiotics and growth hormones. (Side note-- In the case of beef, the cows have been specially bred to provide meat with a higher fat content.) The reason for this sort of factory-farming is because it's cheaper-- they can produce far more meat for less cost.

Let's compare the prices to free-range chicken. Now, I don't have that much hard data, but the prices on those have risen substantially. Their production hasn't nearly been reduced to "botique" level, since there's plenty to go around; but the prices are much higher.

For the Americans, think about last Thanksgiving. Did you buy a factory grown turkey-- the standard Butterball type-- or did you buy a wild turkey? I can assure you that the taste and texture of wild turkeys is vastly superior. The price of wild turkey has been on a steady increase, while dirt-cheap factory turkeys.

Or better yet, because I can actually find numbers for it... Farmed salmon versus wild. I've lived in Seattle for the last two decades, and I've eaten a lot of salmon. The wild salmon have an incredibly superior taste and texture, and any conniseur can tell the difference.

Here is a recent report on the cost of wholesale salmon in Alaska. Notice that the effects of farming is to drive the wholesale price down. This last year has been particularily bad, as more farms started pushing product onto the market.

But what about the retail costs? Let's see what it has to say: [Emphasis added]
QUOTE
Sales volumes in recent years tends to rise and fall opposite the case price, a problem of chronic oversupply indicated by large carryover inventories.

So, a sudden dumping of cheap product onto the market can cause prices to *increase*. For another example of this, look at gas prices. A sudden drop in the price of crude will cause pump prices to sharply spike.

Anyways, to bring this back to Shadowrun-- when a dirt-cheap food alternative is offered, it will supplant and spike the price on the real food items. The problem with most substitute foods is that they're more expensive than the real thing, not less.
Frag-o Delux
I think the whole thing is about easy of purchase. Real food or better food is not that easy to find. If I walk into Giant or wahtever and ask for Buffalo chances are I will get laughed at, if I ask for ground round that is full of fat I can get a truck load. Same with the syrup and chocolate syrup, it comes in easy to use squeeze bottles that fill whole isles, while the real stuff is taking up a little shelf space at the far end of the aisle. Advertising helps a lot also. I don't see many commercails for real chocolate syrup, but hersheys in the summer is pounding away what a great sundea treat it is, and in the winter what a great way to make hot chocolate. So being pounded on the head wth these commercails and the fact that a lot of these products we grown up with or our parents have grown up with is just natural to pick up the substitute then the real thing. Cost of things is also psychological, many people think exspensive equals better. Price amnipulation is working on the consumer everyday.

A freind of mine used to deliver bread. A loaf of bread cost something like $2 US, he slapped a sales sticker on it, a big red one, that said 2 for $5 and the shelves were empty the next day. He kept doing it and was making a killing on commissions. People saw the red stick thought savings and bought it up, even though they were paying a half dollar more a loaf then if they bought it with out the sticker. My uncle does the same thing on his snack cake route. So moral of the story is, if you see a red sticker check the machine stamped (factory stamped) unit price to see if you are really getting a deal. smile.gif
LaughingTiger
QUOTE (Frag-o Delux)
My uncle does the same thing on his snake cake route.

Excuse me.. wha?

What the holy humpin' heck is a snake cake?
kerensky
Frag-o, aside from the obvious irl relevance of your story, it also is a very good way of setting atmosphere in your game. Tell them about the red sticker; sometimes they'll ask questions, sometimes they won't.
Frag-o Delux
QUOTE (LaughingTiger @ Apr 7 2004, 09:13 PM)
QUOTE (Frag-o Delux @ Apr 7 2004, 09:09 PM)
My uncle does the same thing on his snake cake route.

Excuse me.. wha?

What the holy humpin' heck is a snake cake?

You know Twinkies, Ho-Ho's, Ding-Dongs, Devil Dogs, Swiss Rolls, junk food that is in the form of mini cakes usually 2 in a pack.

OH sorry typo, snake cake=snack cake smile.gif
LaughingTiger
Good, thought maybe someone was trying to sell some sort of pornographic thing on the market.

With names like Ho Ho's, Ding Dongs and Snowballs, you can't go wrong.

Bitch betta HAVE my cream fillin'.

All of it.
imperialus
When I first started reading the thread I was reminded of one of the guys I play with creating a character and he gave himself a moderate allergy to seafood. I had to remind him that chances are most of the food he would eat would either be soy or some sort of genetically modified kelp. Kelp counts as seafood... He changed the flaw real fast.
CardboardArmor
Every time someone mentions the soy in Shadowrun, I think about the Soy-Pops they had in that one episode of the Simpsons.

"Now with gag suppressant!"
blakkie
QUOTE (imperialus)
When I first started reading the thread I was reminded of one of the guys I play with creating a character and he gave himself a moderate allergy to seafood. I had to remind him that chances are most of the food he would eat would either be soy or some sort of genetically modified kelp. Kelp counts as seafood... He changed the flaw real fast.

HEY YOU, BACK TO THE BOOKS!

P.S. In case you haven't heard from him, our GM is going to be busy all 3 days this weekend celebrating the death of baby Jesus. frown.gif
lacemaker
Cain,

I appreciate the research you have done into this question and think you have some valid insights but I remain totally unpersuaded by your "the price has to go up so firms can earn the same money" argument...

Firstly, I believe pump prices track world oil prices very effectively and will need substantial evidence to be convinced otherwise, - here is a solid example of the tracking at work:

NZ oil prices

Secondly, nothing in the salmon report convinces me that the basic rules of supply and demand have ceased to apply in that market - I agree that the quote you present could read as saying either that retail sales rose when wholesale prices rose or that retail sales fell when wholesale prices rose (it's not very well drafted), so Ill make an appeal to first principles -

You suggest that businesses will respond to a fall in sales at a given price by raising prices to keep their profits the same. This suggests that prior to the fall in demand they could have profitably raised their prices, but for some reason failed to do so. This would contradict a basic assumption of rational self-interested behaviour - ergo businesses can not be in a position to profit by raising their prices at a time when less people want their product...

That a cheaper/better substitute can cut into a market without this effect occuring is not at issue...
Siege
The people who make the business decisions are not always rational people -- nor do they always make completely rational decisions.

I humbly submit -- Enron.

-Siege
Hida Tsuzua
I'll have to disagree, Siege, while Enron was certainly shady and unethical, they were still rational. They just got caught and made some bad business decisions (getting the futures market for one thing). Rational players can still make mistakes and suffer for it.

Where economics can run into problems is when there are artificial constraints. For example a megacorp wants to push their brand of soy burgers. The corp then bribes some politician to heavily increase regulations (and not the nice keep the food safe kind, but the pay X amount of money for a license ones as well as pay for Y & Z) on regular beef. As the costs of beef have to increase due to increased costs of production, the soy becomes a much cheaper alternative just in time for the megacorps "I can't believe it's not cow!" line of soyburgers.
Solstice
I declare Cain the winner of this great Margarine vs Butter debate.
Siege
Self-enlightened self-interest would have prevented the rampant looting of Enron.

Don't kill the goose that lays the golden egg and all that.

The schemes were so inherently flawed and short-sighted that I hate to believe the perpetrators were calm, calculated and rational.

Although, they have managed to escape proper and just retribution thus far...

-Siege
Kesh
QUOTE (imperialus)
When I first started reading the thread I was reminded of one of the guys I play with creating a character and he gave himself a moderate allergy to seafood. I had to remind him that chances are most of the food he would eat would either be soy or some sort of genetically modified kelp. Kelp counts as seafood... He changed the flaw real fast.

Actually, seafood usually refers to animal products (fish, shellfish, etc.). Someone who is allergic to, let's say lobster, likely wouldn't have a reaction to seaweed products at all.

Just picking nits. Don't mind me. cool.gif
Req
kicking back to the Porn Industry and VHS question...

I was told that the pr0n folks supported VHS because it was easier/cheaper to produce/record to/copy. It's all about the bottom line. smile.gif
Siege
QUOTE (Req)
I was told that the pr0n folks supported VHS because it was easier/cheaper to produce/record to/copy. It's all about the bottom line. smile.gif

Depends on the porn in question. grinbig.gif

-Siege
A Clockwork Lime
The big difference between the original Betamax and VHS formats is that VHS tapes were able to record twice as much (1 hour vs. 2 hours). JVC ws also making OEM deals with other companies left and right, a policy Sony (the creators of Betamax) generally didn't share at first. Thus, more VHS machines were also being produced. Soon, VHS tapes and recorders were cheaper to make, thus cheaper to buy.

Sure, Betamax's quality may have been better with each introduction of an improved format (such as Hi-Fi), but VHS was kicking it's ass just about everywhere else and was close to matching the quality soon thereafter. It had longer-running tapes, it had more companies producing its products, it had cheaper prices, and equal quality. The fact that Disney and Universal both decided to attack Sony -- and only Sony for some strange reason -- for copyright infringements (think the RCAA vs. P2P software) didn't help the Betamax format, either.

It really wasn't until the 80's that third-party companies started advocating one format over another. And that was only because by then, Betamax was taking up only a quarter of the market, thus it was a better idea to choose VHS if you wanted the product to be seen by more people.

So no, it had very little to do with the porn industry picking one over the other. It was basically the opposite: the porn industry picked the one that allowed them to sell more tapes.
Req
Well, that sucks. You're ruining a great internet legend, here. frown.gif
Nikoli
Though it should be noted that Betamax is used in television studios, though the less well financed ones use super-VHS. Beta still has a higher picture quality, though the average person wouldn't notice, thinking it to be signal degredation.
Arethusa
Just a couple quick asides to jump in on:
Hershey's chocolate syrup does contain some cocoa (also should point out that cocoa, from the cacao plant, is the basis for real chocolate) and is not completely artificial, but like all Hershey's chocolate products, it is very from chocolate and very far from good. Ignorance and prices play a very big role in its success, however; most people don't even know the stuff is mostly fake and have never tasted something real (say, Callebau chocolate, even Ghiradelhi, etc). Price differential is not really as significant as people make it out to be and really only comes into play significantly at the manufacturer level or the highest end of the consumer market. In most food markets, it's more about availability and brand recognition than simple lower prices. Of course, it's more complex than this and also can vary a fair bit depending on the market in question, but it's true as a general rule.

The other thing worth pointing out is that soycaf, unlike much of Shadowrun's descriptions of synth foods, is quite plausible. Growing coffee is not as simple or cheap as growing, say, dwarf wheat. In the Shadowrun world, it's more likely that it'll be a soy based synth coffee mixed with some low grade real coffee or coffee derivatives.
Snow_Fox
We've had several runs around the farms and agro-corps in the northern psrt of the sprawl
Cain
QUOTE
Firstly, I believe pump prices track world oil prices very effectively and will need substantial evidence to be convinced otherwise, - here is a solid example of the tracking at work:

Okay. Here is the AAA "Fuel Gauge Report" for the last twelve months. Notice that for every decline in crude prices, the cost of regular unleaded goes *up*.

What happens in both the salmon case and the crude oil case is this-- a sudden wholesale drop means the companies are sitting on large stockpiles of supply that they overpaid for. If they sell it off based on the new value, they'll lose money. So, they make a short-term price spike, in order to rapidly recoup their initial investment. This works best in markets where the demand is relatively inelastic; for example, with gas, the oil companies could potentially charge whatever they felt like. However, if they're gouging people, government regulators will step in and intervene. The oil companies will then have to justify their price increases, or face stiff penalties. (Incidentally, this is going on as we speak-- the West Coast states are calling for a Presidential commission to investigate claims of price-gouging.)

In the salmon case, notice how the price of canned salmon made a sudden leap, coinciding with the release of a large amount of farmed salmon on the market. The same thing applies. The moment companies feel things are safe, they then gradually lower prices-- they've made back what they paid out initially, and can safely make a profit based on a higher volume. In some cases, the price won't lower for quite some time, as the Oil price chart shows.

But to bring things back to Shadowrun-- over the long haul, the cheap substitute tends to drive up prices of the original, forcing it towards the "botique" level. It doesn't have to completely go that far, as factory vs free-range chicken shows us. I think the high real food prices in Shadowrun are more a result of that, and not just a reduction in arable land.
Egon
Our campaign world ended up with a chain of burger joints called "Happy Troll". They were known for large amounts of vary eatable biomass at bargain prices. A post run sammy ritual was stopping in for 2 "8 piece chess burger meals". One for the troll with symbiotes and one for the rest of team.
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