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shinryu
still, joe summoner without edge has a 6% chance of calling godzilla, whereas under 4th or 3rd ed rules any summoner was almost guaranteed to die. it's a significant bump in probability, and i think security worries a lot more about a one in ten or a one in twenty than they do a one in one thousand. it also means that a teamwork summoning becomes a lot more worrisome; maybe a bunch of mages aren't willing to kill themselves, but they might be willing to take one for the team long enough to get your spiritual cruise missile online. i assume you can be stabilized after your condition monitor overflows from drain as long as you don't die. against 14P: calculated risk. against 18P; um, see you next monday, boss. you do lose the element of surprise by doing this. but it's still a potentially big threat.
RHat
QUOTE (phlapjack77 @ Aug 14 2013, 12:49 AM) *
I think summoner edge is relevant, since the number of summoners who have Edge is a MUCH larger group than just "people who have Edge".


It depends on which discussion we're having - Edge is irrelevant to the in-game implications, but relevant from the out of game side.
phlapjack77
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 14 2013, 03:55 PM) *
It depends on which discussion we're having - Edge is irrelevant to the in-game implications, but relevant from the out of game side.

I'm confused by this statement - could you clarify please? I thought we were discussing likelihood of summoner success/death when summoning a F12 spirit. There's not much in game / out of game difference there, is there?
RHat
QUOTE (phlapjack77 @ Aug 14 2013, 01:02 AM) *
I'm confused by this statement - could you clarify please? I thought we were discussing likelihood of summoner success/death when summoning a F12 spirit. There's not much in game / out of game difference there, is there?


Basically, there's two conversations to have on the subject. One is about the way that people in the setting would deal with the way things are, and the other is how balanced things are. The following is an example of the former.

QUOTE (shinryu @ Aug 14 2013, 12:53 AM) *
i think security worries a lot more about a one in ten or a one in twenty than they do a one in one thousand.


It's fundamentally impossible to discuss both at the same time without VERY clearly demarcating when we are referring to one discussion and when we are referring to the other, because things like the actual numbers at the core of the issue are very different.
shinryu
point taken, but can we assume that the game system numbers roughly model a quantifiable number in the in-game universe? that is to say, i don't know if somebody actually says "force 12 spirit" in "real life", i imagine not, but i can imagine thaumaturgical researchers saying something like "the odds of a metahuman surviving contact with a type XII spectral entity are on the order of 1 in 1000" or something to that effect. does that make sense?

i agree it's an open question how much anyone knows. while i don't like the idea of summoning being easier, if that was a deliberate move to make magic more terrifying and the only reason no one worries about this happening is that it has happened yet in universe... well, i don't like it, but it's interesting.
Thanee
Is there anything in SR5 that makes this any different to how it was in SR4? Yeah, summoning is too easy. Big news!

Even in SR4 it was way too easy to summon high Force spirits. That - simply put - is the whole problem.

I am using the following house rule for spirits to deal with this problem: Summoning and Binding is only possible with Force <= Magic Rating.


As for the "magic suicide bomber" scenario ... yeah, so, it can happen... and then the guy is dead and the world moves on. You won't find a whole lot of mages willing to waste themselves like that. And for serious targets, he won't even get close enough, anyways.

The assensing magical security will have him singled out immediately. You cannot go there all calm and relaxed if you are planning something like that.

"Sir, please follow me. Oh, see the red dot on your head there? No, of course not. Just don't do anything stupid..."

And even if he gets it done and kills a high level VIP that way... the world will still move on (without him).

Let's face it. People are redundant. Even the most "important" ones.


And that's why this does not happen... it is an idiotic waste of one's talent.

Bye
Thanee
phlapjack77
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 14 2013, 04:31 PM) *
Basically, there's two conversations to have on the subject. One is about the way that people in the setting would deal with the way things are, and the other is how balanced things are.
Ah, I see now.

But then I think your simulation was still slightly faulty.

QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 14 2013, 03:20 PM) *
The simulation is meant to get at the setting point. All spirits have Edge, but only 0.000000000000000000000000001% of people do. As such, summoner Edge is excluded as being irrelevant.
Edge itself wouldn't be relevant "in setting", as it's an out-of-game/metagame/abstract concept. But, if Spirits in-world have Edge to resist summoning, so will the people doing the summoning itself. Basically if you include Edge at all in your simulation, it then "exists" and is available to all parties involved. So I think a better simulation is to have both parties use Edge to illustrate likely scenarios that would happen if a mage tries to summon something that powerful.
Sendaz
QUOTE (Thanee @ Aug 14 2013, 04:03 AM) *
And even if he gets it done and kills a high level VIP that way... the world will still move on (without him).


And that's why this does not happen... it is an idiotic waste of one's talent.

Bye
Thanee

And that pretty much sums up why most world leaders, even the most despotic, continue to exist despite certain parties constantly howling for their blood.

It's a nice sound byte and bit of back patting, but then another one just steps into place.
kerbarian
QUOTE (phlapjack77 @ Aug 13 2013, 11:24 PM) *
Can we see the numbers? I was just thinking about kzt's post, and wondering if there was a "decent chance" of a character summoning F12 and living to tell about it.

The use of Edge to resist the summoning is a critical point that needs to be addressed/clarified in some errata *sigh*

I ran the numbers, including exploding dice for Edge. At a high level: if the spirit doesn't spend Edge, summoning a F12 spirit is null sweat for a good summoner who spends his own Edge during summoning and drain resistance. He could do it every weekend for fun.

If the summoner and spirit both spend Edge, the odds are still in favor of a good summoner pulling it off, i.e. getting services from a F12 spirit and staying conscious to use them.

It depends on the specific numbers, of course. Say the summoner has nothing but Summoning 6 (+2), a mentor spirit, respectable drain attributes, and average Body (16 summoning dice, 10 drain dice, Body 3). The summoner uses Second Chance on both the summoning roll and the drain roll, and the F12 spirit uses Push the Limit on its resistance roll. That results in probabilities of:
conscious with 1+ services: 50.2%
conscious with no services: 6.7%
unsconscious: 23.4%
dead: 19.7%
If you go with an optimized chargen summoner, you could have 20 dice for summoning, 16 dice for drain (using a sustained Increase Attribute spell or two), and Body 5. Again with both sides using Edge, that gives:
conscious with 1+ services: 75.3%
conscious with no services: 6.0%
unconscious: 15.2%
dead: 3.6%
For comparison, that same optimized summoner using Edge against an F12 spirit that *doesn't* use Edge gives:
conscious with 1+ services: 99.0%
conscious with no services: 0.8%
unconscious: 0.2%
dead: 0.0%

Python source for the probabilities is below. You can run it with different numbers to see how the different cases work out:

[ Spoiler ]
Korwin
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 14 2013, 07:20 AM) *
The simulation is meant to get at the setting point. All spirits have Edge, but only 0.000000000000000000000000001% of people do. As such, summoner Edge is excluded as being irrelevant.

Until an Errata gets actually published spirits are not able to use Edge. smokin.gif
(Edit: In SR5)
RHat
QUOTE (Korwin @ Aug 14 2013, 02:37 AM) *
Until an Errata gets actually published spirits are not able to use Edge. smokin.gif
(Edit: In SR5)


Summoned spirits are not able to use Edge. Big difference vis a vis order of operations.
phlapjack77
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 14 2013, 06:09 PM) *
Summoned spirits are not able to use Edge. Big difference vis a vis order of operations.

Yeah, I don't buy that. I know Bull or someone put that forward as the intended meaning, but it sounds to me like back-pedaling. At the very best, it's REALLY unclear and to need such a precise reading to find the actual rule meaning...well...
RHat
If the intent was that they cannot use Edge at all, they would not have Edge.
Thanee
Wasn't it in SR5, that the summoner can spend Edge for the spirit? Or rather spend Edge to make the spirit use Edge or something like that?

Bye
Thanee
shinryu
ok, gotta make this quick:

in sr5, yes, summoner can spend edge for summoned or bound spirit, spirit doesn't spend its own edge.

kerbarian: thanks for numbers. have a scenario you might want to run, i'm curious here and don't have time to code the simulation up right now:

call it the assassination of damon knight by the coward hoochin'iwa, if you will.

scenario: trio of competent summoners in a van, couple of medtechs, a driver, lots of money. one summoner needs to be kind of a badass, the other need to be decent. they need decent drain pools as well. rules are ambiguous as to whether all summoners need enough magic to summon the spirit indvidually (says "needs to be able to summon the type of spirit in question" in the rules text, implying tradition and not magic is the limitation for this) but we'll say dice 9 for them. teamwork summoning ensues. first summoners roll, average 3 successes, adding six dice to the pool of the lead, who we can say is optimized for 12 dice (or more). so now he's even with the force 12 even with edge. couple foci or optimizations, he's beating it. now, everybody can expect to take 14P damage from this, so good soaks are in order. but if one of them drops, the medtechs are there and can stabilize them as long as they don't overflow totally. basically if you can soak one at least you should be fine.

now this is risky, since the leader has to survive and be conscious, but once he does he just has to project out, point the spirit at the target, and then head back to body. van drives off, spirit gets to murdering, mages recuperate and enjoy a substantial payday. i'd argue this isn't a hell of a lot riskier than a lot of runs, actually.
Tymeaus Jalynsfein
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 14 2013, 12:09 AM) *
And, having run the numbers, I do not think such a thing happening is a realistic possibility. The odds of outright killing the summoner are really quite high if the spirit is using Edge.


Yes, this would be true if Edge is expended, but that is still an uncertainty. As it stands, a Force 12 Spirit resists with only 12 Dice, which is still potentially fatal, but not very likely, with an expected 3-4 Hits on the resistance roll.
phlapjack77
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 14 2013, 07:14 PM) *
If the intent was that they cannot use Edge at all, they would not have Edge.

That's an invalid conclusion, because you have to assume the devs intent is perfectly reflected in the actual written book with no errors...and the errata thread shows that's not a valid assumption.

Again, it might have been the devs' intent, but it definitely needs clarification in the errata. This was a huge sticking point for the rules in SR4, and for the devs to not make it crystal clear one way or the other...

I mean, if we're meant to have to examine the wording that precisely to know what the rule is, then by the rulebook a mage can have as many summoned spirits as he wants at one time. Because the rules only say a mage "can only summon one spirit at a time...". So no multi-summoning of spirits, got it. Because that's how that rule reads if we're going to torture the English language that much when reading the rulebook.
kzt
QUOTE (phlapjack77 @ Aug 14 2013, 08:35 AM) *
That's an invalid conclusion, because you have to assume the devs intent is perfectly reflected in the actual written book with no errors...and the errata thread shows that's not a valid assumption.

Again, it might have been the devs' intent, but it definitely needs clarification in the errata. This was a huge sticking point for the rules in SR4, and for the devs to not make it crystal clear one way or the other...

Don't worry. In just two years and for another $60 you'll be able to get the errata. Plus new and different errors.
Tymeaus Jalynsfein
QUOTE (kzt @ Aug 14 2013, 12:14 PM) *
Don't worry. In just two years and for another $60 you'll be able to get the errata. Plus new and different errors.


Sadly, this is unlikely to be a joke, except for the consumer. *sigh*
pbangarth
QUOTE (kzt @ Aug 14 2013, 01:37 AM) *
An F12 spirit with concealment can to a metaplanar shortcut past the wards and likely get away with it. Particularity if it has countermagic to deal with the defensive mage for a moment.

Is SR5 different from SR4 in this regard? In SR4, the spirit cannot metaplanarly bypass the ward unless a summoner is inside or the previously summoned spirit has been in that location before.
Thanee
QUOTE (shinryu @ Aug 14 2013, 05:10 PM) *
call it the assassination of damon knight by the coward hoochin'iwa, if you will.

scenario: trio of competent summoners in a van, couple of medtechs, a driver, lots of money. one summoner needs to be kind of a badass, the other need to be decent. they need decent drain pools as well. rules are ambiguous as to whether all summoners need enough magic to summon the spirit indvidually (says "needs to be able to summon the type of spirit in question" in the rules text, implying tradition and not magic is the limitation for this) but we'll say dice 9 for them. teamwork summoning ensues. first summoners roll, average 3 successes, adding six dice to the pool of the lead, who we can say is optimized for 12 dice (or more). so now he's even with the force 12 even with edge. couple foci or optimizations, he's beating it. now, everybody can expect to take 14P damage from this, so good soaks are in order. but if one of them drops, the medtechs are there and can stabilize them as long as they don't overflow totally. basically if you can soak one at least you should be fine.


Ok, then we have a trio of competent and half-dead summoners in a van with a badass spirit... then what?

Do they even know where Damon Knight is right now? Do they know his aura to even tell the spirit whom to attack? Will Damon Knight be able to afford security that can deal with a F12 spirit? He's kinda rich...

Bye
Thanee
Sendaz
also don't forget Knight has used body doubles as well. Can't remember if it was in an adventure or sourcebook, but a situation occurred and basically it was a body double that got aced.
Tymeaus Jalynsfein
QUOTE (pbangarth @ Aug 15 2013, 12:32 AM) *
Is SR5 different from SR4 in this regard? In SR4, the spirit cannot metaplanarly bypass the ward unless a summoner is inside or the previously summoned spirit has been in that location before.


Still holds true in SR5, I would think.
Tymeaus Jalynsfein
QUOTE (Thanee @ Aug 15 2013, 01:29 AM) *
Ok, then we have a trio of competent and half-dead summoners in a van with a badass spirit... then what?

Do they even know where Damon Knight is right now? Do they know his aura to even tell the spirit whom to attack? Will Damon Knight be able to afford security that can deal with a F12 spirit? He's kinda rich...

Bye
Thanee


I am just curious who this Damon Knight is. smile.gif He isn't anybody important, I can tell you that. And as for the CEO of Ares Macrotechnology, Damien Knight, well, good luck on that score... He uses Body doubles a lot, so the individual that you THINK is Damien Knight, is likely not. *shrug*
Sendaz
Some rumors even say TJ is Damien Knight when he wants to do some runs to keep his hand in the game. cool.gif
Tymeaus Jalynsfein
QUOTE (Sendaz @ Aug 15 2013, 08:14 AM) *
Some rumors even say TJ is Damien Knight when he wants to do some runs to keep his hand in the game. cool.gif


Shhhhh.....
Note to Security Coordinator: Check our Files on the Shadworunner known as Sendaz, evaluate whether he has become a security risk. If so, remove him.
shinryu
i assume in the example that the summoners have enough of an idea of where damon knight is to get the spirit there. body doubles and such are all a great solution to that issue, but it just exacerbates the idea that if you're not so stupidly rich as to have absolutely top-end security mages and body doubles and warded and armored cars, then you are pretty much a pissed mage away from being scraped off the sidewalk.
Tymeaus Jalynsfein
QUOTE (shinryu @ Aug 15 2013, 09:42 AM) *
i assume in the example that the summoners have enough of an idea of where damon knight is to get the spirit there. body doubles and such are all a great solution to that issue, but it just exacerbates the idea that if you're not so stupidly rich as to have absolutely top-end security mages and body doubles and warded and armored cars, then you are pretty much a pissed mage away from being scraped off the sidewalk.


Most people ARE just a pissed mage away from being scraped off the sidewalk. That is one of the reasons, if not the biggest reason, why Mages are feared.
wepv
First off, Hi! I'm new to the boards. Would have posted two pages ago but sign up process slowed me down.

I think spirits are too strong in sr5. That said, I don't see spirit terrorism to be much of an issue. Spirits only become too strong past force 6, with the truly unanswerable levels in the 10+ force range.

Assuming Shinryu's number is a good guess of the number of magic 6 population, what percentage of them are adepts? And what percentage are aspects mages that can't summon? Lets say that it is an even chance that you are an adept, an aspected Mage( 3 different types), or a Mage of mystic adept. All mages and mystic adepts and 1/3 of aspected mages could possibly summon. What percentage of them will actually have summoning 6 with a specialization? What percentage of these have min-maxed drain stats and high enough damage boxes to stay awake/alive to finish the summon? What percentage of these have summoning foci? And then what percentage of these have edge? Then what percentage of these have the mindset and world view to push them to commit terrorism?

So 6000 people have magic 6. Maybe 50% of them can summon. So 3000. 1/6 of these might have summoning 6(ignoring specs right now). So now we have 500 people on earth that could do this. I have no idea how to figure out how many of these will have the needed drain stats but even if half of them have the drain stats that still leaves us with only 250 possible spirit bombers. How many of these 250 people would have edge? Not many. How many of them would be willing to commit terrorism?

I think this is why it's not an issue. It is just too rare. Is it possible? Yes, but it is more likely that one of his body guards is actually a dragon decker possessed by a toxic spirit.

shinryu
we are having an exciting discussion in the military magic thread along these lines. according to a couple of freelancers, the number of mages in the world in no way supports the complete ease of generating death-machines at chargen. i had made my assumptions based on a world where 1% awakened meant 1% of the population were adepts and mages, but even that number is too high. shadowrun: where internal system and setting consistency just doesn't matter.

tymeaus:
related to the discussion of too few mages and everyone being afraid of them is that an awakened pogrom really does start to be a plausible idea. if only 10 out of 1000 awakened are actually as dangerous as this, then the idea of a population killing all the awakened is actually possible, especially if the government helps take out the really dangerous ones (and keeps its loyal awakened alive as valuable collaborators). this sort of nightmare scenario only makes it more likely that the political elite would want to push for such a thing. for every damon knight, there are two dozen junior VPs with not nearly enough mojo between them and a force 12 elemental. so i think that this could happen at all is a big problem for the setting.
wepv
How many mages able to summon such a spirit are not working for a megacorp?
shinryu
QUOTE (wepv @ Aug 15 2013, 06:53 PM) *
How many mages able to summon such a spirit are not working for a megacorp?


exactly! if you go by the canon numbers of awakened, not only are there no mages to pull this trick, there are basically no mages that would be working as shadowrunners at all, period. it's a bit of a problem for the game as it is.
wepv
I would agree if the majority of shadowrunners were not deranged adrenaline junkies, incapable of holding a real job.
So any awakened who is mentally stable, yeah they most likely work for a corp or a government. But all of the others are likely gangers or shadowrunners.
RHat
QUOTE (shinryu @ Aug 15 2013, 10:40 AM) *
tymeaus:
related to the discussion of too few mages and everyone being afraid of them is that an awakened pogrom really does start to be a plausible idea. if only 10 out of 1000 awakened are actually as dangerous as this, then the idea of a population killing all the awakened is actually possible, especially if the government helps take out the really dangerous ones (and keeps its loyal awakened alive as valuable collaborators). this sort of nightmare scenario only makes it more likely that the political elite would want to push for such a thing. for every damon knight, there are two dozen junior VPs with not nearly enough mojo between them and a force 12 elemental. so i think that this could happen at all is a big problem for the setting.


There was a jihad started with that exact goal. Aden responded by razing Tehran.

In other words, if anyone did decide to attempt it, the dragons would intervene. We know this, because someone decided to attempt it and a dragon intervened.
RHat
QUOTE (wepv @ Aug 15 2013, 11:26 AM) *
I would agree if the majority of shadowrunners were not deranged adrenaline junkies, incapable of holding a real job.
So any awakened who is mentally stable, yeah they most likely work for a corp or a government. But all of the others are likely gangers or shadowrunners.


There are plenty of mentally stable runners - they just have their own reasons for not going corporate.
shinryu
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 15 2013, 08:26 PM) *
There was a jihad started with that exact goal. Aden responded by razing Tehran.

In other words, if anyone did decide to attempt it, the dragons would intervene. We know this, because someone decided to attempt it and a dragon intervened.


point taken, though i would suspect that it largely depends on what subset of awakened are targeted. if the ayatollah had said "god is great, he gave us mages to fight for allah! smite the infidel demon worshippers" and started smiting the (admittedly small) population of christian and sunnni awakened, i don't know as it would have prompted the same response. as another example, i'm not sure lofwyr would give a second thought to ordering the cleansing of the non sader-krupp awakened in a small african country that displeased him. if they don't have a dragon on their side, that could go poorly for the native magicians. this is especially a scenario if one ethnic group allies itself with sader-krupp and the other resists, in which case we have something like a hutu-tutsi war with a little awakened genocide on top.
RHat
QUOTE (shinryu @ Aug 15 2013, 01:43 PM) *
point taken, though i would suspect that it largely depends on what subset of awakened are targeted. if the ayatollah had said "god is great, he gave us mages to fight for allah! smite the infidel demon worshippers" and started smiting the (admittedly small) population of christian and sunnni awakened, i don't know as it would have prompted the same response. as another example, i'm not sure lofwyr would give a second thought to ordering the cleansing of the non sader-krupp awakened in a small african country that displeased him. if they don't have a dragon on their side, that could go poorly for the native magicians. this is especially a scenario if one ethnic group allies itself with sader-krupp and the other resists, in which case we have something like a hutu-tutsi war with a little awakened genocide on top.


If he'd done that, the Church would have gone after him - you don't want groups like the Knights of St. Sylvester (think that's the one) on you. The Sunni Awakened might hav e a similar group.

There were probably a LOT of small conflicts shortly following the Awakening, which would have contributed to the balkanization that occurred.
shinryu
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 15 2013, 08:47 PM) *
If he'd done that, the Church would have gone after him - you don't want groups like the Knights of St. Sylvester (think that's the one) on you. The Sunni Awakened might hav e a similar group.

There were probably a LOT of small conflicts shortly following the Awakening, which would have contributed to the balkanization that occurred.


well, that's why you have to kill them all, isn't it? i'm not saying this is a good idea, as i think history has generally demonstrated these things only result in simmering century-long feuds with intermittent huge bloody incidents. i'm just saying i think people are stupid enough to try it. then again, perhaps they have learned from the balkanization period that this doesn't go well.
RHat
QUOTE (shinryu @ Aug 15 2013, 02:00 PM) *
well, that's why you have to kill them all, isn't it? i'm not saying this is a good idea, as i think history has generally demonstrated these things only result in simmering century-long feuds with intermittent huge bloody incidents. i'm just saying i think people are stupid enough to try it. then again, perhaps they have learned from the balkanization period that this doesn't go well.


And I'm suggesting that people may have tried it, and failed.
shinryu
QUOTE (RHat @ Aug 15 2013, 10:46 PM) *
And I'm suggesting that people may have tried it, and failed.


plus ca change. it didn't work for germany very well, but that didn't stop the serbs from trying 60 years later.
RHat
QUOTE (shinryu @ Aug 15 2013, 04:52 PM) *
plus ca change. it didn't work for germany very well, but that didn't stop the serbs from trying 60 years later.


Maybe, but at this point the people who might do it REALLY aren't in a position to do so.
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