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I'm not sure we disagree much here. All I'm saying is that the grand result of the above is that SR5 is a game where most attacks either miss entirely, or do 60-100% of your condition meter. As I remember, rightly or wrongly, in SR1/2, most attacks seemed do relatively small amounts of damage - like 10-30% of the meter. That gives the impression of high lethality.
In SR1, you only rolled Body, but armor granted soak autosuccesses. As a result, if you had enough armor you could shrug off just about anything. The relative power of the weapon was irrelevant because of the autosuccesses. If you managed to get through their armor somehow, then you were right-- you usually only did enough to hit them for a Light or Moderate wound, just what you could stage past their armor. But overall, it wasn't a very lethal system.
SR2 and 3 were basically the same system; Armor made it easier to soak, but you still only got Body in dice. As a result, combat was much deadlier; no matter how much armor you packed on, you could only get soak successes up to your Body. As a result, a low Body was an extreme liability; if you needed four successes to soak, but only had a Body of 2, you were screwed. Stage the damage far enough, by getting enough net successes, and you could kill anyone. It was very deadly. Even higher body characters, like orks and dwarves, could be felled by a good enough shot. (Trolls were safer, though. A troll with max body and armor could withstand just about anything, I've seen SR3 trolls take direct hits from assault cannons and not be wounded. Physical combat against a troll was a bad idea, you had to resort to magic.)
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Whereas if you are dying in 3-4 hits instead of 1-2, there is much more tension, much more drama, much more time for people to cooperate and try to save each other, and much more reason to try retreating or the like. Same for the enemies, which makes fights a bit more entertaining, typically. There should be a chance of one-shots, sure, but it should be a small one unless there's a vast disparity in power - where due to limits and so on in SR5, it's basically either non-existent or HUGE.
That's fine for PC's, and for significant enemies. It is more dramatic and fun. However, for mooks, it's a pain in the tookus. Trying to keep track of the conditions of 10 nameless guards is a major hassle, and it slows down combat. For mooks, even threatening mooks, you really need an up-or-down monitor for them. Things run much faster, combat is more entertaining, and everything is smoother and easier to track.
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I guess where we do disagree is that very last line - I think that you generally do not "need" the successes to increase your damage - you NEED that one success over defense to hit. I mean, concrete example, AK-97 - ACC5/10P/AV-2 - say the shooter has 5/5 Stat/Skill - best possible hit (as opposed to fail) is 5 successes, worst possible is 1 success. What really matters then is how many successes the Defender gets - if it's greater than or equal to your successes, the number you got is totally irrelevant. The number you get is only relevant if you beat it. Let's look at the difference between best case and worst case hits that are not dodged - best case is 5 net successes (0 defender successes), worst case is 1 net success (0 to 4 defender successes). In the best case you then have a DV of 15, worst case a DV of 11, both are AP-2 - let's say the target has an armour jacket, AV12, so -2 = mAV10, he's then using a soak of say 4+10 (body+mAV) so rolling 14 dice - which means typically 3-4 successes, let's call it 4 - so he takes between 7 and 11 damage - meaning he is either extremely badly injured, and will be downed for sure by another hit by practically anything, or he is downed. Is there a difference? Yes, but he's screwed either way
Well, there's the problem. With a low Limit, attacks are easier to dodge. So, against the Enfield (Acc 4), if the defender can reliably get 4+ dodge successes, he's got nothing to fear. Despite the higher damage code, the actual DPR is going to be very low. RHat suggested that these weapons were better for those with a lower attack pool; but that just makes it worse, since they're less likely to even reach the limit.
But even if he does hit, the numbers you show suggest that the most likely result is the other guy will be wounded, not out. And like I said, that's fine for serious opposition. However, SR5 mooks use the same stats and condition monitors, and wounding a mook is a horrible situation. You've got to individually track everyone's wounds, so if there's a lot of mooks, there's a lot of tracking that needs to happen. It's much better when mooks are up or down, things go much faster. (And one of my complaints with SR5 is that I never see one-shots, even against mooks; so far, everybody but one mook has taken at least two hits to take down.)
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This is what I am saying - in most real runner scenarios in SR5, you're either crippled or dead from a single hit. That's a high lethality game. You may dodge a lot of bullets before that one, but when it catches up with you...
Again, I'm not seeing it. In one of my first Missions games, we went up against a sniper. The street sam was directly out of the book; he took three direct hits from the sniper, and was still fighting. (Injured, but still fighting.) We hit the sniper several times, including one Edged roll for 16 successes. He still got away. (I'm pretty sure he was badly injured, but it was still frustrating.) So, what I'm seeing personally is that you can be wounded easily, but actually killed or significantly crippled is another matter.
I'm willing to admit it might just be me, but that doesn't mean my experiences are invalid. I just haven't seen the lethality in practice that the game offers in theory.
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To be clear I don't have specific solutions or the like, and I don't really intend to change the rules on this until I've run a lot more SR5, but it's a very distinctive setup, and it's one that, to me, feels more like low-level old-school D&D than older SR.
And in my opinion, that's a bad thing.
Shadowrun combat should not be like D&D combat. In D&D, a thug with a knife is no threat to a decent level fighter; he can't do enough damage to significantly hurt the fighter. Change thug with a knife to punk with a gun, and you have a similar situation in Shadowrun; except now, it's supposed to be a credible threat. And in Sr2-3, it was: a good enough roll from the punk could injure or kill anybody except the troll tank.
You're right, SR5 has gone back to the D&D model. The only way punks with guns are a threat is if they pull a stormtrooper squad, and unload a massive volley of fire at a shadowrunner. Enough cumulative defense penalties might result in a hit. However, since armor now increases your soak, you have more dice to soak with, increasing your chances of being only lightly wounded. So, the punk with a gun is no longer a threat.