QUOTE (Cain)

*sigh* I'm not going to bother providing. a full analysis for you, because I'm pretty sure you wouldn't accept it, no matter what the evidence.

Ah, so now it's time for thought-terminating clichés, where you try to cover up your own faults and by claiming my inability / unwillingness to accept "evidence".

QUOTE

So, I'll give you a math problem.

It has been a "math problem" all along. The real problem lies somewhere else.

QUOTE (Cain)

With 4 successes from a base S weapon, versus someone with body 3 and 5 combat pool... what are the odds of avoiding all damage between all-dodge, and all-soak?

So you're now trying to use another selection biased example to "prove" a point against a claim I never made. And your example is one that you distinctively built for one answer:

*3.125% vs. 0% in best case scenario and 0% vs. 0% on everything else*.

The fun part there being that you repeatedly tried to accuse me of using (selection) biased examples while concentrating on your own examples with even stronger selection bias than mine ever had.

But in order to get a bit more out of those "odds" in your example I'll have a different look at it: Your example lacks in certain areas in order to actually use it for reasonable statistical analysis. You're giving no armor values, so subsequently it's not possible to evaluate the required TNs for soaking vs. Dodging ... although those TNs were one of the main aspects in my comment about players meta-gaming the system. Additionally you give no explicit number for Quickness although Quickness influences Combat Pool availability based on armor and thus also influences probabilities.

Let's just forget that I still haven't made

**any** claim that there can't be situations where - due to CP size and attribute values - Dodging can / and will be the better choice and have a look at some of the probabilities, just as you were asking but with some added "bias" of my own:

- I will only look at the situations where TN for Soaking is less or equal to TN of Dodge, because that was what I initially commented on with regards to players "meta gaming" the system in favor of soaking.
- I will assume an armored target, because unarmored targets would face a higher soak TN than dodge for anything but the lower powered hold-outs (which don't come with a base damage level of S anyway) and subsequently wouldn't fulfill the requirements of No.1
- Since you tried to accuse me of "fudging" the numbers to my favor I will even leave out layered armor in general and with FFBA in particular since those would further complicate things for keeping CP unaffected or decrease soaking TNs without negative effects for the target as far as CP is concerned. I'll go with the rather generic armor values of 3/0 (secure clothing), 4/2 (lined coat) and 5/3 (armored jacket). I could include a 6/4 light security armor as well but that would just repeat the pattern for higher power values.
- Ranged weapons with a (physical) base damage level of S come with powers between 7 and 10 in various categories. Since this will cause quite a number of calculations already, I'll stick to standard ammo and just focus on those with power of 7 because the higher power codes result in the same general pattern as long as the main premise concerning TNs is still meet.
- As previously stated the CP value of 5 means a minimum of 3.33 attribute points on Intelligence, Willpower and Quickness and a maximum of 3.66 attribute points on these which somewhat represents an "above average" situation for Shadowrun human. Now the main influential part for the probabilities there is the Quickness attribute, since it influences the actual number of CP dice while wearing armor. So I'll have a look at the probabilities with Quickness attributes of between 1 and 4 for otherwise unaugmented humans. There's no need for going up to Quickness 5 or 6 because at Quickness 4 no CP loss will occur for the armor values given in No.3 and thus the results would be identical from that point on.
- Since d6 still have a discrete probability distribution I'll once more look at the average success rates and maybe comment on some of the probabilities for maximum success rates where needed.

So here we go (expect some rounding differences on the percentages)...

**Situation I**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 1, Armor 3/0; effective CP 4 (5-1 due to armor) => Complete Dodge is impossible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 4

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 4 = 6.25%; 3 = 25%; 2 = 37.5%; 1 = 25%; 0 = 6.25%; average success rate: 2 successes
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge: 3 = 12.5%; 2 = 37.5%; 1 = 37.5%; 0 = 12.5%; average success rate: 1.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 7 = 0.78%; 6 = 5.47%; 5 = 16.41%; 4 = 27.34%; 3 = 27.34%; 2 = 16.41%; 1 = 5.46%; 0 = 0.78%; average success rate: 3.5 successes
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: S with a low tendency towards D for dodge+soak and the same on direct soak

Winner: None

**Situation II**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 2, Armor 3/0; effective CP 5 => Complete Dodge is possible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 4

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 5 = 3.125%; 4 = 15.625%; 3 = 31.25%; 2 = 31.25%; 1 = 15.625%; 0 = 3.125%; average success rate: 2.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge: 3 = 12.5%; 2 = 37.5%; 1 = 37.5%; 0 = 12.5%; average success rate: 1.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 8 = 0.39%; 7 = 3.12%; 6 = 10.94%; 5 = 21.88%; 4 = 27.34%; 3 = 21.87%; 2 = 10.93%; 1 = 3.12%; 0 = 0.39%; average success rate: 4 successes
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: plain S dodge+soak and the same on direct soak
- Chances of going completely unharmed on Dodge: 3,125%

Winner: Dodge

Situations with higher values for Quickness with otherwise unchanged values are identical to Situation II.

**Situation III**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 1, Armor 4/2; effective CP 3 (5-2 due to armor) => Complete Dodge is impossible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 3

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 3 = 12.5%; 2 = 37.5%; 1 = 37.5% 0 = 12.5%; average success rate: 1.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge: 3 = 29.63%; 2 = 44.44%; 1 = 22.22% 0 = 3.70%; average success rate: 2 successes
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 6 = 8.76%; 5 = 26.34%; 4 = 32.92%; 3 = 21.95%; 2 = 8.23%; 1 = 1.65%; 0 = 0.14%; average success rate: 4 successes
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: S with a low tendency towards D for dodge+soak vs. plain S on direct soak

Winner: Direct Soak

**Situation IV**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 2, Armor 4/2; effective CP 4 (5-1 due to armor) => Complete Dodge is impossible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 3

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 4 = 6.25%; 3 = 25%; 2 = 37.5%; 1 = 25%; 0 = 6.25%; average success rate: 2 successes
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge: 3 = 29.63%; 2 = 44.44%; 1 = 22.22% 0 = 3.70%; average success rate: 2 successes
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 7 = 5.85%; 6 = 20.48%; 5 = 30.73%; 4 = 25.61%; 3 = 12.80%; 2 = 3.84%; 1 = 0.64%; 0 = 0.05%; average success rate: 4.66 successes
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: plain S dodge+soak vs. S with a low tendency towards M on direct soak

Winner: Direct Soak

**Situation V**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 3, Armor 4/2; effective CP 5 => Complete Dodge is possible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 3

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 5 = 3.125%; 4 = 15.625%; 3 = 31.25%; 2 = 31.25%; 1 = 15.625%; 0 = 3.125%; average success rate: 2.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge if necessary: 3 = 29.63%; 2 = 44.44%; 1 = 22.22% 0 = 3.70%; average success rate: 2 successes
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 8 = 3.90%; 7 = 15.61%; 6 = 27.31%; 5 = 27.31%; 4 = 17.07%; 3 = 6.83%; 2 = 1.71%; 1 = 0.24%; 0 = 0.02%; average success rate: 5.33 successes
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: S with a low tendency towards M on dodge+soak vs. S with a very strong tendency towards M on direct soak
- Chances of going completely unharmed on Dodge: 3,125%

No clear winner: Direct Soak has on average the lower sustained damage while Dodge has a low chance of complete damage avoidance but higher sustained damage on average.

Situations with higher values for Quickness with otherwise unchanged values are identical to Situation V.

**Situation VI**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 1, Armor 5/3; effective CP 2 (5-3 due to armor) => Complete Dodge is impossible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 2

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 2 = 25%; 1 = 50%; 0 = 25%; average success rate: 1 success
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge: 3 = 57.87%; 2 = 34.72%; 1 = 6.94%; 0 = 0.46%; average success rate: 2.5
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 5 = 40.19% 4 = 40.19%; 3 = 16.08%; 2 = 3.21%; 1 = 0.32%; 0 = 0.01%; average success rate: 4.16 successes
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: S with a low tendency towards D for dodge+soak vs. S with a low tendency towards M on direct soak

Winner: Direct Soak

**Situation VII**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 2, Armor 5/3; effective CP 3 (5-2 due to armor) => Complete Dodge is impossible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 2

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 3 = 12.5%; 2 = 37.5%; 1 = 37.5% 0 = 12.5%; average success rate: 1.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge: 3 = 57.87%; 2 = 34.72%; 1 = 6.94%; 0 = 0.46%; average success rate: 2.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 6 = 33.49%; 5 = 40.19%; 4 = 20.09%; 3 = 5.36%; 2 = 0.80%; 1 = 0.06%; 0 = 0.002%; average success rate: 5
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: Plain S dodge+soak vs. S with a medium tendency towards M on direct soak

Winner: Direct Soak

**Situation VIII**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 3, Armor 5/3; effective CP 4 (5-1 due to armor) => Complete Dodge is impossible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 2

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 4 = 6.25%; 3 = 25%; 2 = 37.5%; 1 = 25%; 0 = 6.25%; average success rate: 2 successes
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge: 3 = 3 = 57.87%; 2 = 34.72%; 1 = 6.94%; 0 = 0.46%; average success rate: 2.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 7 = 27.91%; 6 = 39.07%; 5 = 23.44%; 4 = 7.81%; 3 = 1.56%; 2 = 0.19%; 1 = 0.01%; 0 = 0.0003%; average successes: 5.83 successes
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: S with a low tendency towards M for dodge+soak vs. S with a very strong tendency towards M on direct soak

Winner: Direct Soak

**Situation IX**: 7S attack, 4 successes from attacker, Body 3, Quick 4, Armor 5/3; effective CP 5 => Complete Dodge is possible, TN for Dodge = 4, TN for Soak = 2

- Probabilities for successes on Dodge roll: 5 = 3.125%; 4 = 15.625%; 3 = 31.25%; 2 = 31.25%; 1 = 15.625%; 0 = 3.125%; average success rate: 2.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on DRT after Dodge: 3 = 3 = 57.87%; 2 = 34.72%; 1 = 6.94%; 0 = 0.46%; average success rate: 2.5 successes
- Probabilities for successes on direct DRT with CP: 8 = 23.26%; 7 = 37.21%; 6 = 26.05%; 5 = 10.42%; 4 = 2.60%; 3 = 0.42%; 2 = 0.04%; 1 = 0.002%; 0 = 0.00005%; average success rate: 6.66 successes
- Damage expectations based on average success rates: S with a low tendency towards M for dodge+soak vs. S with a very strong tendency towards M on direct soak
- Chances of going completely unharmed on Dodge: 3,125%

No clear winner: Direct Soak has on average the lower sustained damage while Dodge has a low chance of complete damage avoidance but higher sustained damage on average.

Situations with higher values for Quickness with otherwise unchanged values are identical to Situation IX.

Now I could go on with further situations that further alter armor and attack powers while maintaining the limitations that this all started from (less or equal TN for soak when compared to dodge) but the pattern should be rather obvious by now.

**End results for Quickness values ranging between 1 and 6 for an unaugmented human within a rather limited set of circumstances**Number of absolutely identical outcomes: 1

Number of Wins for Dodge: 5

Number of Wins for Soak: 5

Number of unclear results: 7

QUOTE (Cain)

I'll try and be clearer. I don't know how to set up a table, so forgive my clumsy formatting.

Let's say you are hit by a base S weapon with 4 successes. You can spend combat pool to dodge or soak. What are the results possible for soaking?

0-1 successes: D+ damage.

2-3 successes: D damage.

4-5 successes: S damage

6-7 successes: M damage

8-9 successes: L damage

10+ successes: No damage.

Now, let's compare it to dodging:

0-1 successes: D+ damage

2-3 successes: D damage

4 successes: S damage

5+ successes: No damage.

So, even if you fail to completely dodge, you're doing about the same as if you soaked. And if you do completely dodge, you get the best possible outcome with fewer dice.

First, let me correct your listing of potential outcomes for a target with Body 3, truly available CP of 5 in situations where an attacker scored 4 successes on his ranged attack test with a weapon that has a S base damage level :

**Direct Soak with CP**:

- 0 successes: D damage with the potential of 1 point of deadlier over-damage if the power of the attack exceeds target's body (optional within optional rule) or by 1.5 - provided that this optional rule is actually used.
- 1-2 successes: D damage.
- 3-5 successes: S damage
- 6-7 successes: M damage
- 8 successes: L damage

**Dodge with subsequent DRT with mixed probabilities with remaining body where necessary**:

- 0 successes on Dodge: subsequent DRT with 3 body dice

- 0 successes: D damage with the potential of 1 point of deadlier over-damage if the power of the attack exceeds target's body (optional within optional rule) or by 1.5 - provided that this optional rule is actually used.

- 1-2 successes: D damage

- 3 successes: S damage

- 1 success on Dodge: subsequent DRT with 3 body dice

- 0-1 successes: D damage

- 2-3 successes: S Damage

- 2 successes on Dodge: subsequent DRT with 3 body dice

- 0 successes: D Damage

- 1-3 successes: S Damage

- 3 successes on Dodge: subsequent DRT with 3 body dice

- 0-2 successes: S Damage

- 3 successes: M Damage

- 4 successes on Dodge and subsequent DRT with body dice

- 0-1 successes: S Damage

- 2-3 successes: M Damage

- 5 successes on Dodge: No Damage at all, no DRT required

Yes, the outcomes between pure soaking and dodge + soaking do vary at the point where a full dodge can be achieved. That has never been disputed by me. But - and that's what I've saying all along - the actually sustained damage on average conforms to the probabilities for the involved TNs for dodge and soak and the corresponding dice numbers. And players will try to meta the system based on that knowledge.

QUOTE (Cain)

To a certain extent, TN doesn't matter, if you don't have the dice to succeed.

Actually the TNs are pretty much the main part that matters, because they determine the probabilities on your dice rolls both in cases where you can "succeed" to fully avoid damage and in those where you simply cannot.

QUOTE (Cain)

One of my favorite characters was a body 2 mage. It didn't matter how much armor she piled on, she just didn't have the dice to effctively soak. Dodging was __always__ the better option, because it took fewer dice to dodge than soak.

The involved math certainly doesn't support the claim with regards to the underlined word.

Side note: Be aware that - despite not being totally correct there - your inference that

*she just didn't have the dice to effectively soak* and

*Dodging *__always__ being the better option is quite frankly the representation of your own attempt of meta-gaming the system based on probabilities.

QUOTE (Cain)

Combat pool being a limited resource, the best option was the one that used the fewest dice.

Actually, the "best option" is still the one that overall has the highest probability of success ... and that's still not necessarily "Dodge" even if it provides chances of full damage avoidance with fewer dice