QUOTE (Emperor Tippy @ Sep 25 2012, 07:17 PM)
That's the illegal drug trade for you.
A kilo of pure cocaine on the streets of Bogota is less than a hundred dollars. That same kilo immediately south of the Mexican/US border is a thousand dollars. That same kilo immediately north of the Mexican/US border is six thousand dollars. That same kilo on the streets of LA is ten thousand dollars. That same kilo in Sydney Australia is two hundred and forty thousand dollars. Those are wholesale prices and uncut, street price after cutting multiplies all of those figures anywhere from ten to one hundred fold.
Fortunes were made moving cocaine from LA up to Alaska, an eight to ten fold price increase was not rare.
Miami was a city built nearly entirely with drug money, tens of billions of dollars poured in within a decade or so.
With a few thousand dollars worth of ingredients you can turn out a few hundred thousand dollars worth of Meth.
The illegal drug trade is huge money and anyone with access to a supply can, in real life, be rolling in millions (minimum) in very short order.
Shadowrun is no different, except synthetic drugs produced in a lab tend to be a lot more common (and thus bypass most of the transportation issues that plague drugs in real life).
Many people have referenced BB in this topic. Let's look to that for the example of a lab-synthesized drug startup cartel, which seems to be one of the scenarios here that a lot of people are making and claiming ~millions~ of nuyen on in mere weeks and months.
Now, Walt had Mike and the LPH infrastructure to build his startup on, but there were legacy costs for the infrastructure already in place. After their first solo startup week (a chemist "runner" with his 200k lab) came home with something like 20% of his expected total for those legacy costs. I don't remember the exact number, so I'm going to use round figures here of 100,000. After expenses and hazard pay and distribution, he was left with 20k free and clear. And that's WITH an infrastructure in place.
I can't imagine any runner buying his lab (like Tippy has been advocating) and just churning out any SR synthetic drug and just creating dazzling profit numbers like he's put up on the chalkboard earlier in this topic. It goes back to my point about no one using or understanding real market numbers here.
Let's walk through Walt's steps, here. Walt bought his contact in Jesse, a low-influence, high-loyalty (by nature of blackmail) contact. Let's assume the market is barren and there's no other cartels, LPH, or even a Tuco on the street in competition. Unless the runner chemist is out on the corner selling his product (meaning he's not in his lab cooking his profit-making product), he has to start recruiting and paying. Distribution is your first hurdle. Even the local meth heads want more than just the next hit - and you want more reliability than the local meth heads to distribute your product. After all, no profit if it gets chewed, snorted, injected or otherwise consumed. Let's assume a 2% stock loss for that anyway - lots of major national retail chains are happy with 98% logistical loss prevention rate. So that's 2% of anything you just cooked, up in smoke that you're never going to see again. Cost of doing business.
Let's buy some contacts, our local meth heads who're going to pick it up in your living room or lab and then leave to sell it off. That's some high-loyalty you're buying there. But because of the nature of the job, that loyalty is going to come at a regular price. It'll be like buying those contacts again. Every month. We'll take another 8% off the top there, for the local guys in the neighborhood - say 6 or 7 of them total.
Word's out and business is booming. Your portable 200k lab just isn't going to cut it anymore. You need to produce volume, and you haven't even paid off your first RV yet. In fact, someone glitched and you had to crush your original lab. Now you need 2 mil easy for a hidden facility, which includes the equipment. So, you now have your local meth heads, the employees at your secret facility who help hide it and all the new equipment. The return on your product is great, sure, but how much are you sinking into operating expenses now versus actual take-home profit?
Because, gee whiz... secret meth lab? Can't have the local meth heads coming to knock on your door for the packages they hand out. Now you have to get middle men. Drivers, and Tucos to distribute in the local neighborhoods to work under the nose of cops. But now your product is on the market and produces enough to be KNOWN by the cops (still assuming no other market competition for your drug) who have to crack down on you for PR reasons, even if they don't give a damn (someone else brought up this point earlier). You either have to grease a LOT of palms, or sacrifice several HUGE batches to give them the token PR victory to let them keep their job. Much like the 2% off the top, this becomes another (if I'm using the word right) sunk cost: unrecoverable investment that serves only to keep your doors open.
Any business, even the synthetic drug business (especially the synthetic drug business because your costs to cover up what you're doing are going to be much, much higher to hide the illegal stuff over, say, a real pharma corp that only has corp and federal safety and research regulation to comply with) is looking at a realistic 16-24 months before you see real, first-dollar profit. Until then, you're riding the red, no matter how much scratch you put in your pocket as your "owner's salary."
. . .
All goes back to the point that the numbers everyone (I don't mean to pick on Tippy, but he's the one throwing out the largest numbers, and saying how easy this is going to be) is quoting are happening in a vacuum. "I made my drug. I sell it for x profit. Look at my spreadsheet based on my dice pool and bought successes." None of the real expenses of starting up your own lab, except for the initial 200k investment, is really being considered here.
If you're going to play the BB game, you need to talk BB numbers. Walt did the math, which is about his only saving grace as he flies down the cliff to his final moral event horizon, but too few others in the topic are.
Also the fact that being a chemist, drug lord, or cartel operator is NOT a "day job" quality. It's a full-time (triple time, as any owner of a startup business will tell you most willingly) occupation. You ~can't~ run, because that ~is~ your run. Granted, it would make a very good string of scenarios (like it has for the last 5 seasons), but you cannot - as Tippy would suggest in his last post - just mark the nuyen off on a sheet and call it easy come easy go, with more to roll around in at your leisure.
In a vacuum, his numbers are accurate. But when you start talking about all the micromanaging (question: if Tippy burns almost all his assets every time he goes on a run... how does he have those SOL cannons and drones when he goes out for a slushee? But that's tangential and borders on trolling, so forget that) factors that go into how you'd manage your micro-cartel, you've stepped out of the rules vacuum and can no longer claim and of these insane numbers people are quoting.
Unless I've totally missed information when reading this topic over the last few days, which, I'll admit, is entirely possible. But I don't think I'm far off the mark when I'm saying buying a chem lab and being a chemist is NOT going to produce anywhere NEAR the profit several people in this topic have claimed it will generate.
...Sorry... That's been building up for a while, and I know most of it was irrational and probably generally incoherent stream-of-consciousness stuff. But someone's on the internet. And they're wrong. It couldn't be helped.